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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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The Euro starts pretty soon...maybe it will sheds some light on where exactly that cold air is atsanta.gif

Well hmm.. Euro looks farther north, snow is from a Wichita to KC and farther north and west line. That is farther SE than the 00z run though.

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So, if you take the median road, it would appear Wichita once again...gets the best snow. I know my family in Wichita would be thrilled, but I am with the majority of country starving for snow and want it further south.

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Snow or no snow, these GFS solutions would be a godsend to the Panhandles and far W OK, which haven't been fortunate enough to get on the drought relief that most of OK and AR/MO have seen this fall.

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Ugh, what a waste a perfectly good storm to get some great snow totals for the whole state of Oklahoma...guess we will have to wait until the first part of February to see any of the white stuff....so boringundertheweather.gif

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12z GFS has latched on to the Euroish track with the best snow off to our NW, with the exception around Wichita. Enjoy the rain I guess.

usaasnowi72sfc132x.gif

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12z GFS has latched on to the Euroish track with the best snow off to our NW, with the exception around Wichita. Enjoy the rain I guess.

Nothing new for around here huh lol.....But the forecast says 33 for a low monday night and rain and 39 for a high on tuesday and rain, what a waste and so borderline. Maybe we can get some snows on the backend of it?

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yeah we're struggling to get cold air down. Hoping for a change by Jan though. Hope it doesn't change and get colder and suppress everything south of us, which will result in it being cold and dry before it gets warm and wet again.

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12z GFS has latched on to the Euroish track with the best snow off to our NW, with the exception around Wichita. Enjoy the rain I guess.

usaasnowi72sfc132x.gif

00z GFS update... Back SE a bit. Hope for a Christmas miracle!

usaasnowi72sfc114.gif

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Edit: 12z Euro bumped a bit back south...

12z GFS still too far north for anything big. The Canadian is a little colder though.....If anyone is headed to TX for Christmas, you may get some snow though.

usaasnowi72sfc240.gif

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Springfields afternoon disco mention maybe rain over to snow tuesday, MAYBE lol. Then they sound more concerned with next thursday and fridays storm of possibly being all snow? JoMo is this the one your watching also?

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Springfields afternoon disco mention maybe rain over to snow tuesday, MAYBE lol. Then they sound more concerned with next thursday and fridays storm of possibly being all snow? JoMo is this the one your watching also?

Still watching both of them, 18z GFS came in a little cooler.

usaasnowi72sfc105s.gif

The other one for around next Thurs/Friday has big differences between the Euro and GFS with the GFS not having much and the Euro having a system out west.

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Rain should be outlawed in Dec-Feb. Snow only :)

In football news, it looks like the Pitt State Gorillas, from nearby Pittsburg, KS are going to win the Division 2 National Championship as they currently lead 35-21 with under 3 minutes to play.

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Rain should be outlawed in Dec-Feb. Snow only :)

In football news, it looks like the Pitt State Gorillas, from nearby Pittsburg, KS are going to win the Division 2 National Championship as they currently lead 35-21 with under 3 minutes to play.

I agree but its not gonna happen lol...will take a miracle probly at this point for snow the way we are going. Hell its fairly warm and soggy everywhere! I have a friend in davenport iowa and usually by now he has had some snow, nothing as of yet even up there minus a half inch storm. Hes lived there his whole 37 years and only 2 or 3 times has he remember there not being at least snow on the ground on xmas day. Looks like he may see a 3rd or 4th non white xmas dont know lol. I was reading springfields afternoon disco and they say maybe, and thats a big maybe for snow on the backside of this first storm late tuesday night into wed. morning but nothing major and then they mention again MAYBE light snow on thursday evening friday morning. Christmas eve looks to be fairly warm with a balmy high of 42....i wonder if xmas day will be semi warm also :( and man if its one thing that brings me down its a warm xmas day!!! If i want that id move to florida lol

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00z Euro has a potent Christmas Eve upper level system that generates snow from Kansas down to just south of Tulsa. It looks like the worst would be primarily north of the area though but it would still be nice to get some snow before Christmas.

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00z Euro has a potent Christmas Eve upper level system that generates snow from Kansas down to just south of Tulsa. It looks like the worst would be primarily north of the area though but it would still be nice to get some snow before Christmas.

Hell anything would be better then nothing at this point lol. This forum is just to quiet!!!

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Hell anything would be better then nothing at this point lol. This forum is just to quiet!!!

yeah, it's funny how quickly I go from wanting a huge storm to wanting an upper level disturbance to have just enough moisture to squeeze out a few flakes, lol.

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yeah, it's funny how quickly I go from wanting a huge storm to wanting an upper level disturbance to have just enough moisture to squeeze out a few flakes, lol.

Maybe our best chances will be clippers associated with the cold fronts once again lol? I dont care how big the storm is I would just like to see some snow plz thats it

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12z Euro still has the same moisture starved upper level disturbance but this time it's farther south across OK and AR. Timing would be Late Dec 23rd, early Dec 24th.

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Edit: 00z Euro would have more of a light snow threat across OK and AR.

00z GFS this evening takes a potent upper trough and develops it a bit as it heads east across Kansas on Dec 23rd. There's a lot of difference between runs even this close to the event though and the models have been wavering on two different pieces of energy. Something to watch.

usaasnowi72sfc126.gif

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18z GFS still showing a chance for some light snow or flurries in a few days, Euro had it as well.

usaasnowi72sfc108.gif

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Next system that may cause snow is now getting into NAM range (like it matters because.... come on.... it's the NAM)

usapcpprstmp2m084f.gif

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Next system that may cause snow is now getting into NAM range (like it matters because.... come on.... it's the NAM)

Yep pretty much chuck it to the trash bin i say lol. Its ok when its within a few hours of a storm thats about it haha. Im curious whats gonna happen on friday now cause I see snow chances and get all excited but why, just to get burnt probly im sure! I hope the ao turns for the better soon. I dont understand alot about it but do any of you guys see this happening anytime soon?

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Just took a quick peek... 12z Models are backing off a bit on available moisture for the storm system around the 23rd. Euro wants to develop a system to our south mainly on Christmas Eve but it's positively tilted and most of the precip stays south of the area, Ft. Smith may see something but temps may not support snow anyway. GFS/Euro diverge greatly in the medium range but that shouldn't really change anything around here weather wise.

Check out the wave train on the Euro (orange areas)

f168.gif

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Just took a quick peek... 12z Models are backing off a bit on available moisture for the storm system around the 23rd. Euro wants to develop a system to our south mainly on Christmas Eve but it's positively tilted and most of the precip stays south of the area, Ft. Smith may see something but temps may not support snow anyway. GFS/Euro diverge greatly in the medium range but that shouldn't really change anything around here weather wise.

Yea thats what springfield was saying also. Gonna be moisture starved systems. They are still saying a 30 percent chance of snow for friday but not expecting accums cause of daytime highs. Im gonna watch tonight a lil though cause if it gets cold enough and the timing is right we may be able to squeeze a tad bit of snow out on the tail end of this current system maybe, ground is really warm though and its about 50 degrees outside right now! crazy ass weather i tell ya

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Yea thats what springfield was saying also. Gonna be moisture starved systems. They are still saying a 30 percent chance of snow for friday but not expecting accums cause of daytime highs. Im gonna watch tonight a lil though cause if it gets cold enough and the timing is right we may be able to squeeze a tad bit of snow out on the tail end of this current system maybe, ground is really warm though and its about 50 degrees outside right now! crazy ass weather i tell ya

yeah we just missed the blizzard. The next few systems have a positive tilt look and it's hard to get moisture back in the cold air unless the cold air is already in place. (overrunning situations)

There are signs of things changing in January since the GFS hints at some stratospheric warming which may help break down the positive AO and allow for some blocking to take place at high latitudes which will help send colder air to the south. The wavelengths (space between storm systems) typically get longer as we head into January though which means less chances for snow due to there being less storm systems. If this year stays active and the wavelengths are shorter and we have blocking than it's possible we could have a pretty amazing January. Time will tell and this is all just conjecture at this point.

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yeah we just missed the blizzard. The next few systems have a positive tilt look and it's hard to get moisture back in the cold air unless the cold air is already in place. (overrunning situations)

There are signs of things changing in January since the GFS hints at some stratospheric warming which may help break down the positive AO and allow for some blocking to take place at high latitudes which will help send colder air to the south. The wavelengths (space between storm systems) typically get longer as we head into January though which means less chances for snow due to there being less storm systems. If this year stays active and the wavelengths are shorter and we have blocking than it's possible we could have a pretty amazing January. Time will tell and this is all just conjecture at this point.

Yea what a waste that was even though we did need the rain still. I got a lil over 3 inches of rain here....can you imagine if it was all snow lol. I hope something changes cause this is pretty dull and boring so far! Thanks for explaining the ao a little....i remember reading tons of talk that we need that thing to go negative to get cold air in place. january would be perfect if we can get the cold in here and have storms like this one was! low sun angle and all that good stuff.

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