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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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Glad to be back with my winter family, I feel like a bear except instead of hibernating in the winter, I become super active.

I too am ready for the 00z, and I'm very happy to be back in hyper track mode every six hours!

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00z NAM is back to pouring snow in a pretty narrow band. Oklahoma makes out pretty good except for the SE. I-44 does really well this run.

usaasnowipersfc084hm.gif

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I-44 is that just some kind of magnet? lol

Kind of, the shallow cold airmasses have trouble getting through the higher elevations of the Ozarks.

Don't worry, the GFS is running and about to smack the NAM.

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So which one is better at predicting this storm? The heavy moisture and dumping 12+ inches around I44 or 2-4 inches south of I40?...someone is going to have a busted "winter storm".

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So which one is better at predicting this storm? The heavy moisture and dumping 12+ inches around I44 or 2-4 inches south of I40?...someone is going to have a busted "winter storm".

I'd go with the GFS, the NAM is a terrible model. The GGEM and Euro will run later tonight, if either support the NAM, it would probably be a miracle.

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Well the NAM could be right about the shallow cold air thing down here. If its to shallow it will be rain until its about to pull out.

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Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

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Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

What's the fun in that though?

I'd rather look at the 20+" of snow the NAM puts out, get all excited, get my hopes up, then have them crash back down the Earth.

Weather is a hell of a drug.

It hasn't gotten to the point where I wake up/stop what I'm doing every 6 hours for a new model run...... yet.

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What's the fun in that though?

I'd rather look at the 20+" of snow the NAM puts out, get all excited, get my hopes up, then have them crash back down the Earth.

Weather is a hell of a drug.

Lol JoMo it is a drug.

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Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

ks-chat.jpg

"To hell with your damn logic."

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I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

I can relate. I have a close friend who is flying out of XNA on Tuesday morning. Normally a stickler about being where she is supposed to be on time, this is even worse because she really has to be at her destination on Tuesday. When TSA put out the special weather statement this afternoon, I was really hoping she would not read that....but of course she did, plus the forecast and even the discos.....and now she is consulting me to play out all these weather and travel scenarios. Each scenario ends with one of us saying "why don't we wait until Sunday, and then figure this out." :facepalm:

By Saturday afternoon I may need to get her a log in here and tell her to ask you guys. :popcorn:

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how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too)

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how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too)

I think the NAM had support though, right now the NAM doesn't have support for the crazy amounts its showing. As Brett said, there's a lot of interactions and stuff spinning out west and it all depends on how it all reacts and comes together. Euro starts in about 20 mins or so.

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how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too)

That was an outlier. In our little corner of the country, it is very often a photo finish. For example, the Christmas storm of 2009. The 00z runs on the 23rd showed Fort Smith getting a foot of snow, that was a consensus between the GFS and the evil one (the NAM) and was about 14 hours before the event was set to start. Well by the time we reached 4 pm that day, the precip was ending and we had yet to see a changeover. An hour later we had heavy snow because we ended up on the pivot point.

Just a little parable on not putting too much stock into anything this far out.

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00Z Euro

JLN

ON 12Z 05-DEC   1.5     0.6    1022      72      88    0.00     561     543    
MON 18Z 05-DEC  -1.4    -2.4    1023      81     100    0.28     559     541    
TUE 00Z 06-DEC  -2.5    -5.9    1024      87      94    0.24     555     536    
TUE 06Z 06-DEC  -2.9    -7.3    1027      85      78    0.03     553     531    
TUE 12Z 06-DEC  -5.2    -7.5    1029      84      78    0.02     550     528 

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