JoMo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Brr! Is correct. I'm actually slowly getting used to being this cold finally. Lol. Takes me about 10 minutes to get all my layers on in the morning before work. I work in whatever temperature it is outside but I have no problem with a much colder and snowier than average winter if it should materialize. I made the mistake a couple of years ago by saying that if it isn't going to snow, I'd rather have it warm. It was a depressing warm winter. Got to have it cold for snow chances. Layering up isn't so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I made the mistake a couple of years ago by saying that if it isn't going to snow, I'd rather have it warm. It was a depressing warm winter. Got to have it cold for snow chances. Layering up isn't so bad. Lol. I've said that before too. I'll just keep layering as well and praying for more snow. I keep saying I want it to snow so much I'm tired of it. Lol. It would take a lot of snow to make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00z Euro is still showing the chance of the Friday system producing some frozen (probably freezing rain) early on before turning to rain. As for the longer range... this run of the Euro has a deeper trough farther west this run, and wow is it cold... now that it is in range of the higher resolution run and not the mean.... The front is a little slower this run and runs roughly from Goodland across northern Kansas up to central Iowa by (h240) which is the evening of Friday Dec 20th. It's toasty south of the front where we're enjoying temps in the lower to upper 60's earlier that day. North of the front across southern SD and Wyoming temps are in the subzero range with colder air north of there. The entire state of Montana has temps that are -30 to maybe -48 below normal and that continues up into SW Canada. Isn't this like how our last Arctic blast went? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty close. Just need some precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty close. Just need some precipitation. Me too, I didn't get the precip maps past 240 on the Euro control or ensembles last night. Everything still looks to be going as planned though. There will be precip though, and according to the 12z GFS, it looks very much like last time, so someone is probably going to get a lot of ice, and the farther north you go, the better chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Euro drops the trough in the west farther east than the 00z run last night. This results in the front being much much faster to charge down the Plains. It's through the entire area by Friday night. (Dec 20th) At the same time all this is happening, a more neutrally tilted system is coming out of the southern Rockies. It wants to develop a wave over the Arklatex area that rides the front into SE MO. It never really wraps up or goes negative tilt in our area though and it produces most likely snowfall from NE OK up to Chicago. All this subject to change a million times of course. The thing to take away from this is that another Arctic air invasion is coming. Edit: At h240.... The temps below normal scale is maxing out in Montana... It's going to be -48 degrees below normal there. (it actually looks like that may be where the coldest air in the world is) Santa's bringing us the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z Euro depicts possible record cold (perhaps challenging all-time records?) invading the plains early Christmas week. What an incredible outbreak, should it verify. I know it's been consistent and the GFS supports the idea. Will we rival '83 or '89? I was in utero during the December of 1983. My theory is that the arctic outbreak that Christmas was the genesis of my obsession with bitter cold and snow; particularly around Christmas time. Will we see a storm to accompany the hounds? Let's hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 WOW. Pulled this from one of the SE Forums. This is what JoMO is talking about. That's crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow! (While buying another layer of clothes) Bring it on! This really is going to be a December to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z Euro depicts possible record cold (perhaps challenging all-time records?) invading the plains early Christmas week. What an incredible outbreak, should it verify. I know it's been consistent and the GFS supports the idea. Will we rival '83 or '89? I was in utero during the December of 1983. My theory is that the arctic outbreak that Christmas was the genesis of my obsession with bitter cold and snow; particularly around Christmas time. Will we see a storm to accompany the hounds? Let's hope so. We really nailed it when we were talking about 1983 I believe. Should we go as far as to bring up 1978-79 into the mix? It would be amazing. I probably won't sleep much after the system gets within day 6 or 7 so I better rest the next 3 days. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ron Hearst from KY3 is on board with this cold. He gave one of the most intense forecasts I have ever seen him give (since maybe a day before the 2007 ice storm) tonight. He was really building up the cold and the potential of a major winter storm around the 21st. Interesting to hear that from him so far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Does this guy have a blog? If so can you link it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ron Hearst from KY3 is on board with this cold. He gave one of the most intense forecasts I have ever seen him give (since maybe a day before the 2007 ice storm) tonight. He was really building up the cold and the potential of a major winter storm around the 21st. Interesting to hear that from him so far out... The cold is on all the models, plus the ensembles. The general pattern is agreed upon as well. The only issue is if we get a big storm out of this or not. I would worry that if we did, it may track over us (which wouldn't be good) instead of off to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nope, no blog. That was on the 5:00 newscast. It might be uploaded to www.ky3.com/weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z Euro was just basically a cold frontal passage with rain ahead of the front. It keeps the coldest of the air locked up with the vortex over the south central parts of Canada. The cold air with that looks to be moving south at the end of the run. So basically we have a cold front on Fri, Dec 20th that pushes through, and then another one possibly a day or two later? (run ends with extremely cold air over the N Plains) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z Euro was just basically a cold frontal passage with rain ahead of the front. It keeps the coldest of the air locked up with the vortex over the south central parts of Canada. The cold air with that looks to be moving south at the end of the run. So basically we have a cold front on Fri, Dec 20th that pushes through, and then another one possibly a day or two later? (run ends with extremely cold air over the N Plains) Yeah. Looks like they all did that. Have to wait another day or two to see what evolves. Now just looks a little cooler than average here and dry. Hopefully it changes back. Lol. I liked yesterdays runs a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z Euro Ensembles and the control were very cold Day 11-15. Need snow to go along with it though. The ensembles kept the Pacific ridge intact through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well, today's 12z GFS sure was fun to look at..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS prints out most of the precip as sleet or freezing rain for our area though from 216 to 240 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 InstantWeatherMaps shows over a foot of "snow" along 1-44 in MO just into Northern AR. You're saying this is mainly ice though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 InstantWeatherMaps shows over a foot of "snow" along 1-44 in MO just into Northern AR. You're saying this is mainly ice though? Yeah, you're probably looking at the "Snow Depth" map which shows depth of snow and ice. If you look at "Sfc Snowfall" it shows how much the model thinks falls as snow. If you view the "Sfc Precip type" for 216, 228 it's sleet and freezing rain into NW Arkansas before changing to snow at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah, you're probably looking at the "Snow Depth" map which shows depth of snow and ice. If you look at "Sfc Snowfall" it shows how much the model thinks falls as snow. If you view the "Sfc Precip type" for 216, 228 it's sleet and freezing rain into NW Arkansas before changing to snow at 240. Right after I typed that message I looked at it more closely. I realized what it showed. Thanks for the explanation anyway. We'll see what the Euro says shortly. I'm sure you'll provide us an update soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z Euro wasn't all that exciting. Still getting another surge of cold air. Front is a little faster... might be a little snow next Fri-Sat. It's still changing stuff up in Canada a lot from run to run. Edit: Not sure what to think about the differences between the GFS and Euro. The GFS has had a 'big' storm system for many model runs, while the Euro has not been as consistent. Doug's pattern supports a big storm system before Christmas, which fits into the GFS idea. It's possible the Euro will go towards a bigger storm system as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So what are everyone's thoughts on tomorrow's event. It seems that it should be pretty non-eventful until you get north and east of most of us... would you agree? Anyone concerned about temps staying colder because of snow cover? This system seems a bit more complicated than some because a couple of degrees means the difference between plain rain and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So what are everyone's thoughts on tomorrow's event. It seems that it should be pretty non-eventful until you get north and east of most of us... would you agree? Anyone concerned about temps staying colder because of snow cover? This system seems a bit more complicated than some because a couple of degrees means the difference between plain rain and ice. I'm thinking pretty non eventful but I agree with your thinking that we hold the freezing mark a little longer than expected. Should make some roads that still have an ice pack on them already very interesting. After that just ruins what snow we have left here to look at. Lol. I'm ready for some new snow anyway. The old snow is kinda getting ugly. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So what are everyone's thoughts on tomorrow's event. It seems that it should be pretty non-eventful until you get north and east of most of us... would you agree? Anyone concerned about temps staying colder because of snow cover? This system seems a bit more complicated than some because a couple of degrees means the difference between plain rain and ice. I think the better chances will be off to our NE and we should warm, but like you said, areas with snowpack may be a little cooler than guidance suggests. Temps are close. I'm just waiting on the 00z GFS to bring a bigger storm back on the 192 hour panel tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well, it wasn't quite on the 192 hour GFS but there was a positive tilted wave 204/216 after truncation. The GGEM has a system, so I guess I'll wait to see what the Euro says. We have all this cold air coming.... but the majority of the time it looks dry... Seems like a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Much better looking on the 00z Euro.... Cold front is a bit slower but sharper with it pushing through most of the area by midnight on Saturday (21st) This run drops a low into the southwest which slowly makes its way east before shearing out. It produces some sort of 'frozen' precip over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Rainy day today. Guess it was freezing rain this morning since the schools are closed. Springfield's forecast for this evening and tonight is a bit confusing with a mixed bag here. Looking at this morning's models, it would appear temps would be above freezing, just barely, and everything might stay as rain until the very end of the precip when it may switch to snow. Edit: 12z GFS has a frontal wave with sleet and freezing rain next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acorntree Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I live in Conway, MO on I-44 at the Webster/Laclede Co line. The roads are ice covered, including the interstate. Multiple wrecks and slide offs. Roads blocked. A real mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.