12Z Model Thread

[EasternUSWX]

Look at this difference between the GFS and UKMET at 72 hours:

Funny thing is the UKIE has pulled into first in verification scores.

[Analog96]

Funny thing is the UKIE has pulled into first in verification scores.

And nobody pays it much attention.

[EasternUSWX]

And nobody pays it much attention.

We will see how good it is after this storm is over.

[gravitywave]

euro has returned to yesterday's 12z solution, shows 1000mb over lake huron at 72h

[Cheeznado]

Unfortunately the Euro is not as bad af the GFS but nothing like the UKMET- go Brits! it is really all on its own now....

[Radders]

12Z Euro is sticking to its guns so far as of 84 hours.. Very similar to the 0Z but perhaps slightly higher heights in the NE and warmer with the 850 line al the way up into Quebec.

At 96, the 0 850 line and surface freezing line are moving east and running north to south down the hudson river. Some potential backend snow for Upstate NY, and PA - especially N PA.

By 102 the precip is running out of steam on the backside, Maine and the far east of SNE are still sitting on the warm side of the storm and getting pounded with heavy rain.

By 108 we are done.

[gravitywave]

12Z Euro is sticking to its guns so far as of 84 hours.. Very similar to the 0Z but perhaps slightly higher heights in the NE and warmer with the 850 line al the way up into Quebec.

not similar at all. 96hrs has the low @ 981mb over KMSS, but it went over the great lakes. 0z developed the southern part of the low, swept it over the mid south and then up the hudson.

none of these models knows which of the vorts to lock onto. this is a real mess though, +6 850s all the way to montreal.

edit: oops +4 for the quebs on monday morning. still bad.

[WeatherNC]

Energy must be tough to handle based on all the variations of not only between models, but between runs of the same models!!:

Is that the Middle East? I see Italy's boot...

[gravitywave]

Is that the Middle East? I see Italy's boot...

lol congrats qatar

[bluewave]

not similar at all. 96hrs has the low @ 981mb over KMSS, but it went over the great lakes. 0z developed the southern part of the low, swept it over the mid south and then up the hudson.

none of these models knows which of the vorts to lock onto. this is a real mess though, +6 850s all the way to montreal.

It will probably take from tonight into tomorrow as more of the energy comes ashore for the models to get closer together.

[gravitywave]

ya sampling will improve once we get this thing over the CONUS, it's just that you don't usually see the Euro flip flopping like this inside 72 hours. 500 mile shifts from run to run!

[Radders]

not similar at all. 96hrs has the low @ 981mb over KMSS, but it went over the great lakes. 0z developed the southern part of the low, swept it over the mid south and then up the hudson.

none of these models knows which of the vorts to lock onto. this is a real mess though, +6 850s all the way to montreal.

edit: oops +4 for the quebs on monday morning. still bad.

You are right, I see what you are saying, the 0Z focused on the energy to the south.. .As you say though, still bad either way, for those in the east.

[Analog96]

There was no implicity to it , other posters can go back and read it,LOL. . We were talking about 850's up into WV, not some town. You are the one that took things wrong. Take some of your own advice and look what you're saying.

I don't have a Met degree but have been an amateur Met, local climate statistician for over 30 years and know the climate in the App region. I don't know how long you've been into meteorology or even how old you are for that matter(can kind of guess) but, you seem to want to "correct everybody" like you have been in the business as long as wes.

Who would hire an amateur met that thinks because a small area in WV is a degree or two above normal (likely due to cloudy nights), that the East is in a warm pattern?

[isnice]

So basically were pretty much done with backend snows and we should look ahead?

[bluewave]

Ukie would make it more interesting for interior spots.

[Lee]

Who would hire an amateur met that thinks because a small area in WV is a degree or two above normal (likely due to cloudy nights), that the East is in a warm pattern?

Again, nobody was just talking of a small area in WV nor said anything about a warm pattern,lol. Posters can go back and look. We were discussing about the 850's going up into WV in the extended medium range. LOL. Jeeze,

Why is it you being a professional want to act otherwise? no sense in being a smarta**.

Anyway, leaving all this aside, I always liked your posts and agreed on most of them. Just don't know why there was such an issue with this one when going back and looking at my original reply to Radders. I'll leave it to other board members to think what they will of it. Each his own, I suppose.

[gravitywave]

You are right, I see what you are saying, the 0Z focused on the energy to the south.. .As you say though, still bad either way, for those in the east.

yeah this 12z suite is teh suck for everyone. with all the inconsistency of late though, it's hard to say if the Goofus and Euro both showing similar solutions this round is due to developing consensus or two blind squirrels tripping over the same nut. i'm inclined to think the latter, at least until tonight.

what seems clear though is that GFS is moving away from the atlantic secondary low idea. even the Ohio Valley track seems unlikely at this point.

[Analog96]

Again, nobody was just talking of a small area in WV. Posters can go back and look. We were discussing about the 850's going up into WV in the extended medium range. LOL. Jeeze,

Why is it you being a professional want to act otherwise? no sense in being a smarta**.

Anyway, leaving all this aside, I always liked your posts and agreed on most of them. Just don't know why there was such an issue with this one when going back and looking at my original reply to Radders. I'll leave it to other board members to think what they will of it. Each his own, I suppose.

Because your post reminded me a lot like a Ji post. There are a lot of people coming out of the woodwork and calling the extended pattern a warm pattern, and I can't find anything at all on the extended panels that looks warn.

[weathermanchild]

So basically were pretty much done with backend snows and we should look ahead?

I wouldnt lose hope yet but smart money says probably. The event is still a few days away and global models are not good at forecasting the small scale structure of the storm as it rapidly deepens. Ensembles will also lose the resolution to detect it due to averaging. Also, the SREF seems to be trending toward a coastal cyclogenesis event.

I would suspect the models are especially jumpy because the system is half on the continent. Since different models initialize in different ways, they will all show something different now as opposed to when the system is over land and when it was all over open ocean. The theme is being the trough towards the coast and make a storm, but the models have been hinting that the strongest energy doesn't round the base of the trough until it is in a somewhat favorable position for offshore cyclogenesis.

[Analog96]

There will be streamers from LES, they will be plentiful, temps will be cold, so ratios will be high. That could be a way to get some small accumulations.

[Radders]

Again, nobody was just talking of a small area in WV nor said anything about a warm pattern,lol. Posters can go back and look. We were discussing about the 850's going up into WV in the extended medium range. LOL. Jeeze,

Why is it you being a professional want to act otherwise? no sense in being a smarta**.

Anyway, leaving all this aside, I always liked your posts and agreed on most of them. Just don't know why there was such an issue with this one when going back and looking at my original reply to Radders. I'll leave it to other board members to think what they will of it. Each his own, I suppose.

It's all good! I was probably a little broad with my comment of a cold pattern continuing in the extended range.. It was probably a comment better suited to a regional thread, although in general the extended outlook is not exactly warm either.

[psuhoffman]

SOme are throwing the UKMET out there as holding onto hope, but I think it is important to point out that even the UKMET shifted north with the primary low 100 miles and now would be rain for anyone east of the eastern divide in the mid atl. Important since many do not really look at the UKMET but just go off what is said here.

[Lee]

Because your post reminded me a lot like a Ji post. There are a lot of people coming out of the woodwork and calling the extended pattern a warm pattern, and I can't find anything at all on the extended panels that looks warn.

LOL, wasn't declaring a warm pattern, or winter over BUT, there was nowhere where I said anything of a warm pattern. Should have added that to the original post, i guess.

Radders was saying the cold was still there in the extended medium and yeah it is for much of the east but not to the extent that had been being advertised. Average to slightly above for the central/southern App area(WV southward) is not what I consider a cold pattern though. Not warm, for sure. Now the pattern we've been in along with the early medium range one, yeah, COLD.

I, like you, want to see a cold, snowy pattern. Of which still could very well be the case in the medium, even down here as we both know the extended range on the models are always changing solutions.

[Lee]

It's all good! I was probably a little broad with my comment of a cold pattern continuing in the extended range.. It was probably a comment better suited to a regional thread, although in general the extended outlook is not exactly warm either.

It's good man. I prob. should have been more specific in respect to area as well.

[isnice]

What does anyone think of the 12z Euro? Talk about torch in the long-range...oy vey.