benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lets start a snowstorm trend with these 18z models haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 through hr 54, comparing the h5 maps looks like the 50/50 low is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 looks like the west coast ridge is also a little more robust comparing the 60 hr to 66, as well as the 50/50 being further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ...talking about the NAM, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well not sure what to make of this. Weak low in IN, while stronger low in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 wouldn't that indicate the secondary take over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 wouldn't that indicate the secondary take over? Yes, but this is the NAM at 84. Isn't the first 84 hours of the DGEX the same as the NAM then extrapolated using the GFS? This would explain why the DGEX was so east/south, but its not reliable at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 at least its similar to the GFS camp than Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is the NAM trying for a transfer at 84? Then again... it is the NAM at 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 at least its similar to the GFS camp than Euro camp ya slightly positively tilted trough with stronger of the lows in MS is not cutting anywhere west of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 best is to compare the nam and gfs at h5 hr 84 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 big changes at 500 level compared to last run 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The NAM remains way weaker with the shortwave over the Central US and further north with the PV. This in itself should allow for a further east solution, but I can't help but notice how poor the PV positioning and orientation is for the snow on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is the NAM trying for a transfer at 84? Then again... it is the NAM at 84... Looks that way to me, I'd love to see this solution extrapolated to ~108hrs. Interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ...you will on the DGEX. That's what the DGEX is, isn't it? An extrapolation of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 in comparing the gfs and nam they look pretty good on that quasi 50/50 low, only differences are the strength of the s/w and pv positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ...you will on the DGEX. That's what the DGEX is, isn't it? An extrapolation of the NAM? It's an extrapolation of the NAM with some GFS components Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Please include some kind of analysis or data when posting a model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Please include some kind of analysis or data when posting a model thread. ok rib, next time I'll start off by showing a model image plus thoughts. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 so whats next? GFS then DGEX then GFS ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 so whats next? GFS then DGEX then GFS ENS? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The NAM is probably headed towards a GFS solution but slightly less amplified if you ask me. The positioning of the H5 features are similar, the GFS just seems a bit faster with the Polar Vortex over Central Canada and it phases it in earlier. The Euro and GGEM have a completely different idea..that Polar Vortex is way further south on those models and is already partially phased into the shortwave at what would be the end of the NAM's run. I'm most perplexed by the 12z Ukie which continues to be flat with the Polar Vortex and doesn't phase in until late..allowing the surface low to escape east and track from ACY to PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 KMA continues its pattern of a coastal storm http://web.kma.go.kr...m=s120&x=6&y=17 Open up paint and flip it if you can't open it like that For those who can't open it, its a 988 mb storm off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Comparing the 12z NAM and UKMET, one can even argue that the UKMET has more argument for it's further east solution and that the NAM might wind up more inland given that evidence. The 300mb jet streak on the UKMET over the northeast is much more suppressed and further south (likely as a result of it's stronger upper level feature near the 50/50 position) and supports the upper level jet streak over the Central US tracking further south and east before amplifying. The NAM seems less involved with that 50/50 and as a result it's jet features over the Northeast are further north and likely would not mitigate the more northward development. Still nothing along the lines of the CMC or ECMWF, though, we can say with confidence. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod2=ukmet&run2=12&stn2=V300&hh2=072〈=en&map=na&stn=V300&run=12&mod=nam&hh=072&comp=2&fixhh=1〈=en Also--you can change to the GFS on the right panel given that link, and see how it is subsequently even further north with the jet streak over the Northeast. This is something that may open a window into where these models are heading earlier than the actual surface features come into play post-100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 15z SREF means at 84 hours have the surface low over Northern Tennessee, but seem to be indicative of more displacement between that shortwave and the Polar Vortex..interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 15z SREF means at 84 hours have the surface low over Northern Tennessee, but seem to be indicative of more displacement between that shortwave and the Polar Vortex..interesting. looks like tonight's 00z runs could be very interesting. And who better to start the thread for it than me lol. But, first lets see 18z GFS before jumping the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Very impressive signature on the SREF's, regardless of where the amplification occurs and who gets the frozen precipitation. 160kt 250mb jet streak is roaring over the top of the ridge on the west coast and ready to amplify into the base of the trough over the Central United States. Interesting observation, the SREF mean's seem more progressive than the latest 18z NAM. The base of the trough and trough axis is in Southern Arkansas, while the 18z NAM is slower with the trough and shortwave...at that hour it is still back across Oklahoma. The SREF is also less enthused with the Polar Vortex. More food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z NAM extrapolated would yield a well inland track with little to no hope of frozen precip. And really it's not even close. The only thing it had going for it last run was its relative flatness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z NAM extrapolated would yield a well inland track with little to no hope of frozen precip. And really it's not even close. The only thing it had going for it last run was its relative flatness. I would have to argue the potential for frozen precipitation in some areas away from the immediate coast...especially given the regression of the upper level low and the potential for secondary development similar to that of the 12z UKMET or 06z DGEX (can't believe I am referencing the DGEX, but it's a similar solution with the NAM probably a bit more inland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z NAM extrapolated would yield a well inland track with little to no hope of frozen precip. And really it's not even close. The only thing it had going for it last run was its relative flatness. Im not so sure it would be all that inland if the southern low is the one that takes over...I certainly dont think it would be to the extent of the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.