phil882 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 00z GFS coming in further south and west again... still a potent little system but its definitely going to make an earlier landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 00z GFS coming in further south and west again... still a potent little system but its definitely going to make an earlier landfall. Ugh, how early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I don't like the trend.... 21N South will disrupt the inflow of a slowish moving Nate, it would be unraveling by then...for a cyclone to be a significant one that far south it has to either be a big, strong and/or moving fast ... it will meet at most one requirement. That's why there has only been one major hit in Veracruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Ugh, how early? Sometime before 72 hours. The trend in the modeling has been pretty major, but not unexpected given the +SOI me and Jorge have been harping on the last couple of days. I don't like the trend.... 21N South will disrupt the inflow of a slowish moving Nate, it would be unraveling by then...for a cyclone to be a significant one that far south it has to either be a big, strong and/or moving fast ... it will meet at least one requirement. That's why there has only been one major hit in Veracruz. Yea this track certainly cuts down on the potential intensity. I'm not fully aboard the GFS train yet (since it keeps changing the tracks every 12 hours or so) but if the ECWMF shifts southward I think the writing is on the walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The new Sabancuy radar started operations just today, talk about good timing...but there's no public access to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The new Sabancuy radar started operations just today, talk about good timing...but there's no public access to it yet. Saw a page for it earlier with a broken image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Saw a page for it earlier with a broken image. this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 this one? Yeah. Didn't realize it was linked from outside the SMN. Sure would be nice to get a look at what they are seeing with that snippet from the latest disco. Talk about teasing tropical nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 This was taken from an article talking about the new radar and using Nate to calibrate it ... it's almost 12 hours old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 A definite microcane look-- with the deepest convection very close to the center now. Looks to be essentially stationary still, with the center still below 20N: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Not only it backed off, it's now the southern outlier, with LF just south of 20N... this will bring big changes in the 11pm Advisory, faster and farther south...LF around Tampico on day 4, 85kts Not bad CMC and Ukie look south of Tampico ... things are looking dreary... but I'm 1/16 glass full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Models seem to be trending toward a Hurricane Stan-like track. Ugh. Tampico would have been okay, but south of 20N is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Models seem to be trending toward a Hurricane Stan-like track. Ugh. Tampico would have been okay, but south of 20N is brutal. Yep, almost all models unravel this quite rapidly before landfall if it's that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Omg. This was looking so hawt three hours ago. Wtf? Just kill me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Omg. This was looking so hawt three hours ago. Wtf? Just kill me now. that seems to be a constant this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 that seems to be a constant this season Totally. It's been a lot of letdowns. One after the other. Let's see what the Euro says, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Cheeznado probably had the best idea when he left the thread. What a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Cheeznado probably had the best idea when he left the thread. What a disappointment. I see him lurking, so I'm sure he appreciates the compliment. But, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 00Z Euro is total crap-- has it moving due W to landfall near Tecolutla (20.5N) between 48 and 72 hr. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Interesting that the convection has actually been thinning out overnight, which is the exact opposite of what you'd expect. One thing: if I'm interpreting the imagery correctly, it looks like the center has gained some latitude and is now above 20N. I know this isn't my chase thread, but I have to say, I'm having trouble imagining flying from CA for this frail little thing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 The new (4 am CDT) advisory has the intensity down slightly-- to 55 kt. The latest forecast brings it ashore near Poza Rica late Sunday night (~72 hr) with winds of 85 kt. Interesting tidbit Re: the track: RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NATE IS STILL ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...AND THE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO STRONGER AGREEMENT THAT NATE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NATE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. IN FACT...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE NOW THAT TAKES NATE WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Convection making a bit of a return-- in what looks like the smallest cyclone core I think I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Convection making a bit of a return-- in what looks like the smallest cyclone core I think I've ever seen. Can't be smaller than ... Marco... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Tropical_Storm_Marco_on_October_6_2008.jpg/220px-Tropical_Storm_Marco_on_October_6_2008.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I like the full image right now of here... The small nate... and the large disorganized Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Can't be smaller than ... Marco... I dunno, dude-- look how small that core is. Looks comparable to Marco. I like the full image right now of here... The small nate... and the large disorganized Maria. Wow-- just amazing, the difference between Maria and Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 It's strengthening this morning-- getting all symmetric, with good outflow in all quads, cute little feeder bands, and a button-like CDO. It's doin' the micro thang: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I'd give this a 20% chance of being a major at landfall. As long as shear stays low, it's not going to ingest dry air, it's going to have 30+ SSTs and a microcore. It's got a shot to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I'd give this a 20% chance of being a major at landfall. As long as shear stays low, it's not going to ingest dry air, it's going to have 30+ SSTs and a microcore. It's got a shot to get there. Agreed. It's taking a little longer than I expected for the convective pattern to stableize but given the current presentation its starting to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Nate has actually gained a decent amount of latitude... Much more than the GFS was predicting. Once again it appears the ECWMF is in the drivers seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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