weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Not a great setup but with dewpoints running into the lower to mid 70's and a good deal of wind shear aloft with vertical shear values in the 30-40 knot range we could get some storms to fire later on this afternoon. Both the NAM/GFS are indicating a fairly unstable environment later on with Cape values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range with pockets up to 2500 J/KG possible. While we won't see much sun today we could get some breaks and with a warm low-level airmass in place temps could spike up with any breaks of sun. The combination of mid 70's dews will also help yield to a fairly unstable environment. Mid-level lapse rates are decent, around 6 C/KM but may weaken a bit as the day goes on. Threat today should be rather isolated but the main threat besides torrential rainfall would be wet microbursts given the very moist airmass in place and decent shear aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Not a great setup but with dewpoints running into the lower to mid 70's and a good deal of wind shear aloft with vertical shear values in the 30-40 knot range we could get some storms to fire later on this afternoon. Both the NAM/GFS are indicating a fairly unstable environment later on with Cape values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range with pockets up to 2500 J/KG possible. While we won't see much sun today we could get some breaks and with a warm low-level airmass in place temps could spike up with any breaks of sun. The combination of mid 70's dews will also help yield to a fairly unstable environment. Mid-level lapse rates are decent, around 6 C/KM but may weaken a bit as the day goes on. Threat today should be rather isolated but the main threat besides torrential rainfall would be wet microbursts given the very moist airmass in place and decent shear aloft. Vis loop showing some thinning out to your west here in the Hud.valley. This will add some instability. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Vis loop showing some thinning out to your west here in the Hud.valley. This will add to some instability. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html Starting to get some breaks here as I type. Definitely will add to the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 I love the new addition of the K-Index to the mesoanalysis page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Starting to get some breaks here as I type. Definitely will add to the instability. Currently ,PWATS at 1.7 and SBCAPE at 1000. Not so bad. We'll see what a few hours of sun does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I love the new addition of the K-Index to the mesoanalysis page Real nice feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Currently ,PWATS at 1.7 and SBCAPE at 1000. Not so bad. We'll see what a few hours of sun does. Yeah PWATS are fairly high and may increase a bit more too so torrential rains are definitely going to be the main threat with anything that pops. Sun really starting to come out stronger here. Seeing lots of blue sky patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 83/74 here and mostly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 83/74 here and mostly sunny. Temps may be underforecasted today with this sun coming out, forecast high here is 80°F and it's already 79°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Back over in thick clouds and just had a shower move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Sun back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Getting fairly unstable pretty quickly with the sun out. SBcapes at 1500 J/KG with MLcapes around 1000 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 83/75 at HFD. 83/72 at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 We've had quite a bit of sun here with temperatures shooting into the low to mid 80s and dews in the upper 60s. Some cumulus clouds forming, but nothing that would advertise significant instability in the area. There are some showers and storms popping up on the Binghamton, NY radar that bear watching as they move to the east. I think the primary threat will be heavy rain, lightning, and some brief gusty winds where storms do occur. I don't envision much severe weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 89.3/75.5 at Umass. Pretty darn uncomfortable. spc mesoanalysis shows >2K j/kg SBcape & >40 kts bulk shear MLlapse rates aren't great, but if we can get something to fire here in the next couple hours it might be borderline severe in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Tornado Warning in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Going to be interesting to see if that cluster can spike it as it moves into the CT Valley where SBcapes are 2000 J/KF, MLcapes are 1500 J/KG, MUcapes are 2000 J/KG, LI values are around -6C and 0-6 shear is about 30-35 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Cell west of Monticello, NY coming up a bit. Doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 What a crappy day.. Was waiting for rain, instead it was 83/71... Sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Shame there isn't much in the way of upper-level support today or some aid from a LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Shame there isn't much in the way of upper-level support today or some aid from a LLJ. Big line of storms moving towards West Milford, NJ and Peekskill, NY but I don't see any warnings. Atmosphere is really juiced for heavy rains here, 83.9/77. I have a feeling the Wunderground home sensors may overestimate dewpoints, but even HPN (White Plains) is at 82/74. Instability has been limited somewhat by the cloud cover here, however. We could have hit the 90s with these 850s if clouds hadn't gotten in the way, and I know down towards Central NJ temperatures did spike into the low 90s given 850s near 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 This is going to seem silly... but, the 0-1km shear is directionally superb. I have leaf rustle from the S/SSE here in Ayer, and CU towers are tipping SE. A small shower cell and even CB popped here along RT 2 within the last hour, and although it was no better than 25 or 30 dbz in core, the base of it was moving in classic positive helical motion with respect to mid cloud. What does that means.... not much other than it would have been interesting if mature CBs and more robust updrafts materialized through that lower layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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