Radders Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I see good things in the Pacific.. I got the whole NH pattern at 500 mb... the whole thing is beginning to amplify big time Yeah, I noticed that too.. Pacific starts to look much better from day 7 onwards as the ridging out west becomes more prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 198 lgt to mod precip over all the n mid atl and northeast except maine 850 line is about 50 miles west and or north of the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 nice west coast ridge at hr 198, really carving out eastern trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yeah, I noticed that too.. Pacific starts to look much better from day 7 onwards as the ridging out west becomes more prolific. Also, notice those low heights in northern canada start to migrate south at 192 onwards...498 thickness starting to enter Northern MN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the wavelength of this system is pretty wide.. it ends up being a fairly weak reflection at the surface as there really isn't a huge piece of energy diving in to create any large diffluence of the lee side of it.. it's a fairly neutral trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 the big issue with this run is that low over the great lakes, to much of a southerly flow, then when this next storm comes in its mediocre cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 204 precip pushes off shore except for sne and nne 850s along i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The timing between the shortwaves is off. We need the energy over the Great Lakes to dig more and phase with the energy down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 huge arctic airmass in the northern plains sub 498 thickness in mn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 -24 C 850s in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 -16 850s all the way down to st louis hr 216 -20 to -24 850s over eastern mn and wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the wavelength of this system is pretty wide.. it ends up being a fairly weak reflection at the surface as there really isn't a huge piece of energy diving in to create any large diffluence of the lee side of it.. it's a fairly neutral trof. Agreed, the gradient of the west side of the trough is not sharp enough... We need those heights to pump up more on the West Coast to sharpen the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 -20 to -30 below zero cold in northern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 -10 to -20 highs for northern plains hr 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the pattern looks pretty good to me.. I think we could use a bit of block at that 50/50 placement to force this trof to take on more of a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 228 -16 to -20 850s down to ten border, polar vortex over south shore of hudson sab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 the pattern looks pretty good to me.. I think we could use a bit of block at that 50/50 placement to force this trof to take on more of a negative tilt. jay, i dont like how that clipper is that far north, the southerly flow from that erodes the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 lol 510 thickness down to ten border with ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Things will inevitably change, but in my opinion, late next weekend, the signal is still there, and that is all we can hope for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 below zero lows over ohio valley and upstate ny, -10 to -20 below zero lows over mn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Things will inevitably change, but in my opinion, late next weekend, the signal is still there, and that is all we can hope for at this point. Agreed. I'm starting to get the feeling that everyone gets accumulating snow on Sunday. Of course, accumulating could be an inch of slop in some areas. But, as I said in another thread, an inch of slop before 12/15 NYC South really is not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 jay, i dont like how that clipper is that far north, the southerly flow from that erodes the cold. yea.. with regard to that particular system, it does track pretty far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Strongly agree! This is a great pattern..I smell a good shot at a nice overrunning event in our futures, should be a very interesting month of weather Great stuff! Thanks Tom!! Things will inevitably change, but in my opinion, late next weekend, the signal is still there, and that is all we can hope for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 So the run sounds better than 0z, if not perfect. Still have hopes for some clipper snows and a bigger storm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 So the run sounds better than 0z, if not perfect. Still have hopes for some clipper snows and a bigger storm later. The GFS and Euro both bring accumulating snow to my area in one way or another. I suppose that's the best we could ask for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 in terms of broader things hr 240 has a goa low, nice ridge out west and n atl ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 it's fine where it is. we are just trying to keep it on topic here this thread gets a lot of views and none wants to sift through all the extra ot stuff to find out info and ji it's a GLOBAL MOD FTW now get back to the mid atl thread Not sure I wanted to start my first thread using the CRAS, but I guess I'll just have to deal with the reprecussions. In any case, thanks for moving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Shades of December 2000 for the Plains States! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 in terms of broader things hr 240 has a goa low, nice ridge out west and n atl ridge. Pattern will give in at one point. I feel that around Dec 12-18th we will get SOMETHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Shades of December 2000 for the Plains States! Dec 2000 was a NINA, albeit weaker than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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