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HurricaneJosh

Jonesing for a Chase

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Yeah, that's how I justified it to my biz partner-- I was like, "There will not be anything else this year, and next year's gonna suck with the El Nino, so this could be my last meal in a really long time, and please don't be angry..."

He was cool. He really is so supportive and caring. :)

angry.gif

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No Problem. Just want your chase to be successful.

Good Luck if you decide to go for it.

:wub: Thanks so much. I'll need it with this one-- the track looks like it'll be a dreadful cliffhanger.

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On the NHC site...

<refresh> <refresh> <refresh> <refresh>

Dying to see what the 11 pm EDT track is. What's the furthest-W point in the forecast? It was 87.2W, then it was 87.0, and the last forecast had it at 86.9W.

Will it continued nudging E, or will it nudge back W?

So much depends on it.

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I dunno. Within the next couple of hours, I guess.

I have to say, all three chase subjects this year have been unf*ckingbelievably irritating with regard to track: total uncertainty until the very last minute Re: whether a landfall might occur: Irene almost missed Cape Hatteras, Jova could have almost swung wide and missed Cabo Corrientes, and Rina is pulling the same sh*t with the Yucatan. So sick of this sh*t.

Whatever happened to Janet 1955/Joan 1988/Iris 2001/Dean 2007-style landfalls? Do those happen anymore or did they run out of stock on that item?

F*ck.

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Its your money, but a year from now, the regret will be greater if you don't go and the eye passes over Cancun, than if you did go and the center stays 50 miles offshore.

You only live once.

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I dunno.  Within the next couple of hours, I guess.I have to say, all three chase subjects this year have been <b>unf*ckingbelievably</b> irritating with regard to track: total uncertainty until the very last minute Re: whether a landfall might occur:  Irene almost missed Cape Hatteras, Jova could have almost swung wide and missed Cabo Corrientes, and Rina is pulling the same sh*t with the Yucatan.  So sick of this sh*t.Whatever happened to Janet 1955/Joan 1988/Iris 2001/Dean 2007-style landfalls?  Do those happen anymore or did they run out of stock on that item?F*ck.

Josh,

I hear ya, man.

That is all.

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Its your money, but a year from now, the regret will be greater if you don't go and the eye passes over Cancun, than if you did go and the center stays 50 miles offshore.

You only live once.

And on the other hand.......

The trend is not favorable. You had a tremendous success with Jova. There will be many more canes in your lifetime with better odds than this. Why push your business relationship further than it needs to go on a mid-grade system with such a tenuous track? You may want to draw on your "relationship capitol" for some other reason, and taking a pass on this one may prove beneficial in ways you cannot anticipate now.

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And on the other hand.......

The trend is not favorable. You had a tremendous success with Jova. There will be many more canes in your lifetime with better odds than this. Why push your business relationship further than it needs to go on a mid-grade system with such a tenuous track? You may want to draw on your "relationship capitol" for some other reason, and taking a pass on this one may prove beneficial in ways you cannot anticipate now.

I totally see what you're saying-- you raise good points. The things that are pushing me to chase this, despite the negatives, are:

* I have a particular interest in Mexican hurricanes-- it's sort of become a specialty for me-- an area of differentiation.

* Being on the Yucatan and having a good cyclone miss would suck. Being in California and watching a good cyclone hit the Yucatan from afar would send me over the edge. :D

So...

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I totally see what you're saying-- you raise good points. The things that are pushing me to chase this, despite the negatives, are:

* I have a particular interest in Mexican hurricanes-- it's sort of become a specialty for me-- an area of differentiation.

* Being on the Yucatan and having a good cyclone miss would suck. Being in California and watching a good cyclone hit the Yucatan from afar would send me over the edge. :D

So...

So...........? So...........? You can't just leave us all hanging like that! :lol:

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He's still working on it. I'll bet it's going to be blistering.

Just MHO and I have no $$ riding on it, but if I was in your shoes, I'd be booking my flight to Cozumel ASAP.

IR presentation looks much better than 3 hours ago, and you already saw the last MI pass. It might pass just east, but I think a western eyewall hit is getting pretty close to a given.

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Just MHO and I have no $$$ riding on it, but if I was in your shoes, I'd be booking my flight to Cozumel ASAP.

Please expand on your thinking, if you wouldn't mind. :)

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Please expand on your thinking, if you wouldn't mind. :)

Sure. Shear certainly doesn't look prohibitive to strengthening, and while there is some dry mid and upper tropospheric air to the north and west, the upper oceanic heat content along Rina's forecast track is about as high as you could ask for. As far as the track goes, if you take a consensus of the 00Z GFS and GFDL, it's a direct hit.

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Sure. Shear certainly doesn't look prohibitive to strengthening, and while there is some dry mid and upper tropospheric air to the north and west, the upper oceanic heat content along Rina's forecast track is about as high as you could ask for. As far as the track goes, if you take a consensus of the 00Z GFS and GFDL, it's a direct hit.

And it's also the NHC forecast, so maybe ya having somethin' there. :)

The new advisory indicates the motion is still due W. This is good-- the further W it gets before the turn, the better.

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Well my argument here is three-fold.

First of all, I think we are seeing the beginning signs of a more poleward movement with Rina in the last several frames. This motion will likely continue to gradually become more poleward with time as the storm continues to move very slowly. That said, the storm has already come further west than I was expecting. In fact in the last 21 hours the system has only gained .2 degrees in latitude against 1.2 degrees gained in longitude... so its been on a close to due west track. This means the turn it will need to make in the next 48 hours to avoid landfall will need to be sharp. I'm becoming convinced it won't be quite sharp enough given the small size of the storm's circulation not having as great of an impact on the mid-level flow as I was expecting. Thus, I think we will see the center cross land, somewhere just E of Cancun.

However, the strong winds with Rina will likely be on the E half of the system as it starts to move more poleward. This works against your favor unless the entire inner core moves onshore. That's a harder thing to determine at this time.

The final factor is how strong will Rina be. I think the storm is about 12 hours or less away from peaking, and there is already evidence that the outflow on its eastern flank is starting to become restricted once again. As we saw with Paula last year, even small storms can be somewhat resilient of vertical wind shear if its restricted to 200mb only. It does appear that the 300mb flow will remain favorable for a longer period of time even as the 200mb flow increases. Thus, I'd only expect a slow rate of weakening even as the 200-850mb vertical wind shear ramps up close to 30 knots. Thus, I'm thinking a potential landfall intensity of 85 knots looks pretty reasonable right now. I don't think this will fall apart like the ECWMF is continually trying to predict.

Thus if you can be ok with chasing an 85 knot storm where you might not get into the max winds (like you did with Jova) then I say go for it. Otherwise, you probably already had this experience multiple times in 2010.

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