IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I know it says watch unlikely but I believe a watch is forthcoming... Instability is continuing to grow Mesoscale Discussion 628< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271955Z - 272100Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY WILL POSE A MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS AIDING IN WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA N-NEWD INTO SERN NY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES...WHICH COULD AID IN BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A WW ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Brand new severe thunderstorm warnings out south of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Typical effect of seasonal SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...CNTRL/ERN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236... VALID 272250Z - 272345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 236 CONTINUES. TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITHIN THIN QLCS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY NY TO BLAIR COUNTY PA AS OF 2240Z AND DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN CNTRL PA. DESPITE LINE ORIENTATION NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM. IF TSTM ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN EXTENT OF THE WW...A NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. ..GRAMS.. 04/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Alabama/Georgia are getting absolutely wrecked http://yfrog.com/z/h6xi6ohj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 As I thought, marine layer just too powerful around here today, even with the instability with the cold pool. Maybe something comes though tonight, but not feeling that either. Tomorrow is still the best chance for our first real severe event but still not sure how much we destabalize. Western areas probably do well but I don't think immediate nyc metro verifies severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Alabama/Georgia are getting absolutely wrecked http://yfrog.com/z/h6xi6ohj been really sad to watch that unfold...total destruction. Tuscaloosa got killed and so did NW Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 been really sad to watch that unfold...total destruction. Tuscaloosa got killed and so did NW Birmingham the weather channel caught one of the tornados live and was broadcasting it I heard. That would be impressive television. The amount of destruction over the past few weeks from severe weather is heart breaking. It's why I really never can or will cheer on severe parameters and hope for storms. You have to remember what is going on on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just went up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 815 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE EASTERN MARYLAND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EASTERN NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM UNTIL 400 AM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MASSENA NEW YORK TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 235...WW 236...WW 237...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 243... DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HUDSON/DE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. 00Z IAD/ALB SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...TO 1000-1200 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ENVIRONMENT REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 the weather channel caught one of the tornados live and was broadcasting it I heard. That would be impressive television. The amount of destruction over the past few weeks from severe weather is heart breaking. It's why I really never can or will cheer on severe parameters and hope for storms. You have to remember what is going on on the ground. I watched it live..it was awful. And agreed on the severe weather thoughts. Here's one of the latest photos out of NW birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 SB CAPE at 1000 and SB Lift index at -5 in east Pa / West NJ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=cbsig&underlay=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 western jersey is going to be the hot spot tonight/over night and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 western jersey is going to be the hot spot tonight/over night and tomorrow. They usually are this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Looks like my prediction of a watch came to fruition. Too bad its at night though makes for a more dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 nothing will make the city on east with the marine layer, caked in fog here and 58 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 nothing will make the city on east with the marine layer, caked in fog here and 58 degrees. may get something elevated early morning. tomorrow same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 nothing will make the city on east with the marine layer, caked in fog here and 58 degrees. Hence why they aren't in the watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 They usually are this time of year. Yeah, after seeing all the destruction that goes on with severe weather, in no way, shape or form do I want that here. Our severe weather season starts in June and continues through the first part of Fall, and I'd rather see scorching heat like last summer instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Looks like my prediction of a watch came to fruition. Too bad its at night though makes for a more dangerous situation. Dangerous? Looks like garden variety boomers for this area to me, at best. Don't lose any sleep over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Dangerous? Looks like garden variety boomers for this area to me, at best. Don't lose any sleep over it! I doubt they would have gone with a watch if they didn't think it was a big deal. Regardless its the loud thunder in the middle of the night that I hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Dangerous? Looks like garden variety boomers for this area to me, at best. Don't lose any sleep over it! Don't you know that the river he lives on floods when one drop of rain falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yeah, after seeing all the destruction that goes on with severe weather, in no way, shape or form do I want that here. Our severe weather season starts in June and continues through the first part of Fall, and I'd rather see scorching heat like last summer instead. After the 125MPH Macroburst that came through my town last Sept 16th,I dont like severe weather anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Don't you know that the river he lives on floods when one drop of rain falls? Nothing to do.with floods and everything to do.with trees into houses since the ground is completely saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Dangerous? Looks like garden variety boomers for this area to me, at best. Don't lose any sleep over it! Agreed. I doubt we see anything tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Nothing to do.with floods and everything to do.with trees into houses since the ground is completely saturated. Severe weather parameters look terrible right now for NJ/NYC. I've looked through thermodynamic, kinematic, instability parameters and can't find much favorable for tonight. Tomorrow's your higher chance for svr to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 the watch is for the one cell by DC that will never get here , maybe the spc is just practicing for tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 the watch is for the one cell by DC that will never get here , maybe the spc is just practicing for tommorrow I love comments like these, maybe they should fire the guys at SPC with advanced degrees and hire you and TheTrials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 I love comments like these, maybe they should fire the guys at SPC with advanced degrees and hire you and TheTrials The watch was likely a good idea but the storms themselves are not going to happen given the current thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 the watch is for the one cell by DC that will never get here , maybe the spc is just practicing for tommorrow Not to knock the SPC, but just from my obervations, the best T-storms I've experienced in CNJ occurred with no watch in place. Usually our best events are total surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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