Mikehobbyst Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 What needs to happen and does the pattern have strong support for the 12-18 inch snowstorm for NYC ??? Can this be as potent as the Boxing Day storm ? Looks like 28-32 degrees for the storm and will likely have 2-3 days of highs in the 20's following the storm. It would have to trend into the 30-40's soon after with solar strength on the airmass regardless. We probably will get true heat in here about 3-4 weeks later with all the cold Arctic dumped out of SE Canada between 3/22 and 4/10 on the Northeast. If Canada purges all of the cold it will increase the chance for a heat period in later April and portions of May away from the water. If the cold airmass stays trapped in SE Canada we will pay with drizzle and backdoors through May 2011. I'd rather it dumps on the NE now for 2 weeks and gets used up and then we start very warm weather around Tax Day. Also the preview right now is nice, before the real thing about a month from now. I would like to see the ECMWF gain strong support for this in the next three days. Pacific is getting there with -EPO, but the Atlantic needs to look a bit better with a true -NAO western block, but not impossible. 4/82 Redux ???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 What needs to happen and does the pattern have strong support for the 12-18 inch snowstorm for NYC ??? Can this be as potent as the Boxing Day storm ? Looks like 28-32 degrees for the storm and will likely have 2-3 days of highs in the 20's following the storm. It would have to trend into the 30-40's soon after with solar strength on the airmass regardless. We probably will get true heat in here about 3-4 weeks later with all the cold Arctic dumped out of SE Canada between 3/22 and 4/10 on the Northeast. If Canada purges all of the cold it will increase the chance for a heat period in later April and portions of May away from the water. If the cold airmass stays trapped in SE Canada we will pay with drizzle and backdoors through May 2011. I'd rather it dumps on the NE now for 2 weeks and gets used up and then we start very warm weather around Tax Day. Also the preview right now is nice, before the real thing about a month from now. I would like to see the ECMWF gain strong support for this in the next three days. Pacific is getting there with -EPO, but the Atlantic needs to look a bit better with a true -NAO western block, but not impossible. 4/82 Redux ???????? The ECMWF Shows a HECS ? The 0Z GFS shows a MECS -maybe some would consider it a HECS because its late in March = models have been showing the potential the last week or so for this period - It can happen - it has happened in the past especially in LaNina years - a wintry 2 - 4 days in late march or early april enveloped in between above normal conditions..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 The ECMWF Shows a HECS ? The 0Z GFS shows a MECS -maybe some would consider it a HECS because its late in March = models have been showing the potential the last week or so for this period - It can happen - it has happened in the past especially in LaNina years - a wintry 2 - 4 days in late march or early april enveloped in between above normal conditions..... 6Z GFS is still showing the storm BUT its hundreds of miles south of 0Z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06180.gif and JB is advertising a snowstorm also centered around I -80 http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Interesting stuff from the HPC... THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW FOUNDLAND BLOCK AGREEMENT WILL HELP ANCHOR A VERY CHILLY HIGH PRES AREA OVER SE CENTRAL CANADA. A LATE SEASON COLD OUTBREAK MAY SPELL SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WED/THUDAYS 6-7 AS A POTENT WAVE ROLLS UP THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 There are similarities next week to the April 7, 2003 storm cold high pressure just arriving in south east canada of course and similar track and timing of low pressure near the ohio valley redeveloping to the south.and east...also above normal days before and several days after http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2003/07-Apr-03-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 There seems to be some model agreement on a possible snow "event" for next Wed or Thurs. It is still early but it seems like the pattern is changing to a +PNA and -NAO, just in time for spring part II. At this time I would say it needs to be watch for some snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 There are similarities next week to the April 7, 2003 storm cold high pressure just arriving in south east canada of course and similar track and timing of low pressure near the ohio valley redeveloping to the south.and east...also above normal days before and several days after http://www.njfreeway...urfaceMaps.html That was one of my favorite storms with the high snowfall rates during the daytime. I've always wondered what that storm would have done had it occurred a few months earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Kind of a bizarre thread paragraph you wrote there, but nonetheless there is definately some potential with this one - maybe somme similarities to the late feb snowstorm we had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 CMC is a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 EURO destroys DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 EURO destroys DC Like that will verify especially this year down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Like that will verify especially this year down there. I'm not saying that it will snow in DC with this event but perhaps you should take a closer look at the rest of the models and study strong nina climo a bit more before passing judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12Z GFS surface temps upper 20's low 30's NYC Metro - Northern NJ Wednesday Night - 3 - 6 inches frozen around ..56 qpf at newark will be melting at the start before sundown http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kewr.txt http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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