snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'd watch out with those NAM BUFKIT profiles. They're notoriously high with snowfall accums, even with that new snow deaggregator feature, at least based on my own experiences. GFS BUFKIT tends to do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'd watch out with those NAM BUFKIT profiles. They're notoriously high with snowfall accums, at least based on my own experiences. GFS BUFKIT tends to do better. Oh yeah definitely, thinking of the 30"+ amounts from Groundhogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I only have a shovel shovel? it will melt in 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Oh yeah definitely, thinking of the 30"+ amounts from Groundhogs Yeah, at this point I'd expect 5-8" from Monroe to Harbor Beach, with 2-5" from Adrian to Bad Axe, essentially a warning on the eastern tier and advisory for the tier to the West. Btw lol at the TV mets calls, all of them are basically dusting to an inch... I smell a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I only have a shovel http://detroit.craigslist.org/mcb/grd/2257136759.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yeah, at this point I'd expect 5-8" from Monroe to Harbor Beach, with 2-5" from Adrian to Bad Axe, essentially a warning on the eastern tier and advisory for the tier to the West. Btw lol at the TV mets calls, all of them are basically dusting to an inch... I smell a fail. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Through 12 on the 12z NAM, ul trough looks a smidge east, but sfc low is deeper. Will probably be a good hit a la the 6z NAM for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 RUC with a sudden and dramatic shift southeast. Check out this comparison of the 10z 18 hour and 12z 16 hour runs... both valid at 4z tonight. The low was forecast to be over Jamestown, NY. It is now forecast to be over State College, PA. That is a shift of 150 miles in 2 hours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Some strong omega coinciding with the H7 low from Pt Huron to NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This. Dusting to an Inch LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Just checked the 12z NAM... looks to be following the RUC with a little bit furtheast east track. Almost looks like an exact repeat of the April 1-2, 2005 storm that dumped 1-2 feet across northeast Ohio and up to 3 feet in NW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 WJBK in Detroit: Says very Light snow probably a coating at best..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 WJBK in Detroit: Says very Light snow probably a coating at best..... Translation 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 12z NAM looks to be back to reality. The QPF numbers are finally be pared down to realistic amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Trent looks like we are in the bullseye for this one. I have to say I'm not ready for it as I just was in Fort Lauderdale, Florida for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I only have a shovel I only have a leaf blower. :/ LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 RGEM bombs CLE and NE OH, but pretty meh for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 RGEM bombs CLE and NE OH, but pretty meh for SE MI. What else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 What else is new Adding up the QPF, it looks like the eastern fringes of Huron/Sanilac/St. Clair get about 0.40" of QPF, but things drop off rapidly west of there. Detroit looks like 0.20", maybe 0.25". Good news is that it's an incredibly tight gradient. It shifts west an inch you're golden. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Too bad we couldnt lock in the 6z. Trend I have been seeing is the low is stronger but takes a more north track before heading west, thus we get clipped here. Seriously going to be a matter of miles. Along 94 may get 6-10 and u go 4 miles west to my house I may have 2-4. RGEm a good 24 hours of snow for NE ohio. Just a teaser here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I do feel good however because rarely is it ever good to be in the bullseyes 1-2 days out. Definitly been the case so far this winter. We have done better when the models weren't in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 An advisory is a lock here, GFS has 0.37-0.43 from DET NEward to MTC. NAM has 0.46-0.71 from DET to MTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Cleveland area has been getting destroyed lately with rain. Looking at the radar the precip is starting to move due north and slightly west. If the low can strenghthen early and make the turn earlier we are golden. So much for being productive at work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 HRRR bombs Macomb and St. Clair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's the 850mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Nice donut. Usually that setup is perfect for us, I guess this will be another nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 HRRR bombs Macomb and St. Clair! Not seeing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 HRRR bombs Macomb and St. Clair! Should I go to my basement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Not seeing that Just actually looked at precip field and its just to the east of Macomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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