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march 5-7 potential heavy rain event


earthlight

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You would issue a flood watch in the desert

dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters.

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Jay,

if only we had blocking and a decent PNA.... We will be talking Boxing Day totals around here. 20-30"+.

yea.. the Pacific looks like garbage right now and unfortunately there isn't any good blocking... what's interesting is the models are showing a very strong representation of the PV up in northern Canada next week with 474 thicknesses. The Western Atlanctic is the only saving grace.. at least in terms of getting significant precip into our area.. obviously it's not snow, but there is essentially a massive ridge forcing everything to slow down

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yea.. the Pacific looks like garbage right now and unfortunately there isn't any good blocking... what's interesting is the models are showing a very strong representation of the PV up in northern Canada next week with 474 thicknesses. The Western Atlanctic is the only saving grace.. at least in terms of getting significant precip into our area.. obviously it's not snow, but there is essentially a massive ridge forcing everything to slow down

Yeah, I am pretty impressed at the QPF output given lack of true subtropical jet we would see in a El Nino, but the Polar Jet is very strong.

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Yeah, I am pretty impressed at the QPF output given lack of true subtropical jet we would see in a El Nino, but the Polar Jet is very strong.

yes.. the key ingredient with this system and next week in our area is definitely the massive blocking ridge over the Atlanctic.. no doubt about it. It is forcing the trofs to go negatively tilted and inducing an impressive amount of dynamics and lift

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if you look at the global models.. there is actually a massive block pattern over most of Europe. There is a huge blocking upper low currently over spain and portugal that is forecasted to retrograde about 500 miles off the coast of Spain and Portugal and sit there for a while.. it's causing a massive ridge to form over most of the Atlantic and Europe and everything is being forced north of that.. so I think this whole setup in Europe is impacting our weather in a big way.

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dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters.

maybe, maybe not--how many busts have we seen with GFS and NAM overdoing totals...not saying it's not going to happen, but still skeptical right now...

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dude, the QPF is clearly there....why do people troll those that like to see massive amounts of QPF, it's a rare weather phenomenon that I find interesting. It actually sounds like your bitter because were having a high QPF event and its all going to be wet instead of white. Bring on seasonal snowfall totals of 6" next year and I wouldn't care after the last two winters.

You sure do know how to go off on a tangent, floodsy.

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almost every GFS ensemble member wants to bring the freezing line through our region around hr 72, unfortuantly that's right as the precip is leaving.

You forgot to mention nogaps, jma and ukie. Please keep us updated.

Thanks.

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