flwxwatcher45 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 looks like the whole coast may be swamped next Friday / Sat. Maybe I'll rent a boat instead of a car. Yes, proabably a good idea to rent a boat lol. A wet week does appear to be ahead for parts of Florida .Things do look really interesting later this week. The GFS is now a day later with the system but still brings a pretty good chance of having some severe weather with the event Friday/ Saturday. It should be an interesting week weatherwise for a change!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The next few days it looks like some good rain chances and some strong storms as well. The GFS continues to be a lot more bullish on the late week storm but until then, hopefully some decent storms Monday and Tuesday. A blurb from this afternoons Melbourne AFD.. MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS DURING THE DAY. VORTICITY MAXES MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST IN THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PROVIDE GOOD PVA ALONG WITH WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -14C ADVECTING IN SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. LATEST RUN...AND THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...OF BOTH THE GFS AND N.AM SHOWING LIKELY POP FOR MONDAY AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT NUMBER. TUESDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH GFS INDICATING HIGH PW FOR MARCH OF AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SERIES OF JET MAXES MOVING ACROSS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH. FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AND INTO EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The next few days it looks like some good rain chances and some strong storms as well. The GFS continues to be a lot more bullish on the late week storm but until then, hopefully some decent storms Monday and Tuesday. A blurb from this afternoons Melbourne AFD.. Humidity was noticeable today for the first time since October by me in Port Saint Lucie. Monday through Friday should be fun considering how dry and boring it has been ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Humidity was noticeable today for the first time since October by me in Port Saint Lucie. Monday through Friday should be fun considering how dry and boring it has been ...... Your right, today has been more humid. It really stands out this evening, evenings lately have turned cooler once the sun sets but tonight it still feels humid. I am looking forward to this week, it's the first real chance in awhile to get some decent storms. I just hope Mother Nature coperates with us.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Im down in Cocoa Beach, what do you guys think this week has in store. im assuming there will still be sunny periods? The neighbor who lives next door says this is a more summery pattern. Your right, today has been more humid. It really stands out this evening, evenings lately have turned cooler once the sun sets but tonight it still feels humid. I am looking forward to this week, it's the first real chance in awhile to get some decent storms. I just hope Mother Nature coperates with us.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yes, proabably a good idea to rent a boat lol. A wet week does appear to be ahead for parts of Florida .Things do look really interesting later this week. The GFS is now a day later with the system but still brings a pretty good chance of having some severe weather with the event Friday/ Saturday. It should be an interesting week weatherwise for a change!. Finally. This weather has been lousy. A full week of rain and storms with some good potential for late in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Finally. This weather has been lousy. A full week of rain and storms with some good potential for late in the week. It is absolutely going to rain in Palm Beach and northern Broward today. In fact the look of radar has my spidey senses tingling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The SPC has most of Florida in the Slight Risk category today.!! ...FL/SRN AL AND GA TODAY... MCS NOW OVER CNTRL FL APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT 925-850 MB FLOW BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LVL JET OFF THE GA/SC CST. THIS CONFLUENCE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND OVER THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ON WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF EXITING MCS. MEAN FLOW OVER THE REGION IS FAIRLY MODEST /30-40 KTS/...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. BUT THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND...COUPLED WITH HIGH PW OVER REGION /1.50 - 1.75 INCHES/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALSO MAY FORM NEAR AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/SFC WAVE IN SRN AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Finally. This weather has been lousy. A full week of rain and storms with some good potential for late in the week. Yes!!!!!!!! It's about time.. After the storms today, it looks like Tue and Wed, with the heating of the day some strong storms could pop. Like you said, Thursday into Friday, it sounds like another round of possible strong to severe storms.. It's going to be a good week!! Tidbit from Melbourne about late week threat. BOTH MODELS SHOW GOOD FORCING AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BUT ALSO A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm just on the Southern end of the rain and storm sheild here in Northern Polk County and as the Front slowly sags south it looks like some good prospects of storms and heavy rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I am up over 2 inches of rain so far with this event and the heaviest band of showers still to pass through. It looks like before the week is out both March and April's average rainfall totals will fall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks like storms are really starting to blossom (finally) here in S. FL. After missing out on that MCS this morning, I'm hoping for SOMETHING this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Radar, for the archive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks like storms are really starting to blossom (finally) here in S. FL. After missing out on that MCS this morning, I'm hoping for SOMETHING this evening... Yea I had a lot rain earlier today and it looks like another round is on the way. Humid as **** today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Only .50 up here but I'll take it. From the looks of things there some folks getting bucket loads today. Was nice to hear some thunder but some better storms would have been nice. We'll see what the rest of the week brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Only .50 up here but I'll take it. From the looks of things there some folks getting bucket loads today. Was nice to hear some thunder but some better storms would have been nice. We'll see what the rest of the week brings. I had a good day rainwise yesterday. Not much in the way of storms but 3.78 inches feel into the old rain guage. Hopefully with some daytime heating some storms fire up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I see the SPC has roughly from Tampa Northward in the slight risk for severe weather tomorrow and most of the state is in the slight risk area Thursday. Nice write up this morning from the Melbourne office about the severe weather chances for Thursday . Sounds like Thursday could be a good day for some action.. THU LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING DAY AS A STRONGER SFC WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BDRY IN ALMOST THE SAME AREA EARLY THU MORNING. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FORCING THIS SFC DEVELOPMENT...AND AXIS IS ALTHOUGH FARTHER NORTH...MODELS ADVERTISE STRONGER RESPONSE IN SFC PRES AND LOW LVL WIND FIELDS. ONLY ISSUE AT HAND APPEARS TO BE EXTENT OF CLOUDS - BOTH LINGERING DEBRIS FROM WED CONVECTION...AND WHAT SHOULD BE EARLY ONSET OF DIURNAL CU/SC FIELD...WHICH COULD INHIBIT INSOLATION AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. STILL...SFC-H85 WIND FIELDS AVG 40-50KT IN THE GFS/NAM/UKM/ECM (50-55KT IN THE GFS) WHICH WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVEN IF CONVECTIVE "VIGOR" IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LARGER HAIL. HELICITY PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF TOR THREAT AS WELL. ENTIRE CWA IS IN SWODY2 SLGT RISK AREA. LINGERING PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE SRN CWA EARLY IN THE EVENING. COOLER BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT NOT OVERLY SO AS WINDS DON`T VEER A WHOLE LOT SO EXPECT MORE SIGNIF DRY AIR ADVECTION AS VERY STRONG CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Had a SVR warning down here in Fort Lauderdale today but the storm missed here. Got some decent rain and distant thunder but nothing too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 SPC has from roughly Tampa/ Melbourne line northward in the slight risk for severe storms today. I am getting some sunshine this morning, so that should help create some instablity for the storms in my neck of the woods . Tommorrow looks to be even better for the prospects of some active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tornado Watch issued for roughly the North half of Florida until 8 PM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 79 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 TORNADO WATCH 79 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FLC001-003-007-009-017-019-023-029-031-035-037-041-047-053-057- 067-069-075-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-117-119-121-123- 125-127-310000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0079.110330T1510Z-110331T0000Z/ FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-552-GMZ730-755-765-830-850-853-310000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0079.110330T1510Z-110331T0000Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Meh. If anything this is going to be an isolated wind event with maybe a brief spin up or two. Heavy rain during the rush hour is going to cause the most problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tornado Watch # 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I would like to add that any spinup that does occur would be most likely IMHO to happen farther south and east in the watch box. Volusia and Brevard Counties especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I would like to add that any spinup that does occur would be most likely IMHO to happen farther south and east in the watch box. Volusia and Brevard Counties especially. The airmass down here in Central Florida is quite unstable, so your probably right. Add to the fact, some daytime heating ( at least here in Lakeland area) and that will further add to some instablity. Looks to be a interesting late afternoon and evening. I have my FLIP video camera ready.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I would like to add that any spinup that does occur would be most likely IMHO to happen farther south and east in the watch box. Volusia and Brevard Counties especially. Melbourne Office highlights the fact about the increasing unstable enviroment in Central Florida. It will be interesting to see if we get some storms to pop out ahead of the main line. Tornado Watch in effect for much of east central Florida through 8 pm A tornado watch is in effect for much of east central Florida through 8 pm this evening. A line of strong to severe storms near the northeast gulf coast continues to move rapidly eastward. Additionally, an increasingly unstable environment over east central Florida could allow a few strong to severe storms to develop out ahead of this line. The main threats will be damaging straight line winds and frequent lightning, but large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Melbourne Office highlights the fact about the increasing unstable enviroment in Central Florida. It will be interesting to see if we get some storms to pop out ahead of the main line. [/b] I wouldn't expect anything more than a brief spinup at most. The main threat is going to be the heavy rain during the afternoon rush across the I4 corrider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I wouldn't expect anything more than a brief spinup at most. The main threat is going to be the heavy rain during the afternoon rush across the I4 corrider. I wouldn't be surprised to see some hail reports from storms that do fire around here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hoping for some decent action, haven't seen a good thunderstorm in awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 SREF 09Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hoping for some decent action, haven't seen a good thunderstorm in awhile now. Same here, it's been awhile since I have had a decent boomer. I am hoping outflow boundaries out ahead of the squall line will kick off some big storms here in Polk . We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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