flwxwatcher45 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Close but no cigar yesterday. I can feel it though. Today is the day. Yes, the East side of the state got most of the action yesterday but I'm with you it looks like todays should be a better day for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 This Afternoons AFD from Miami sounds bullish on the system in the Caribbean bringing some much needed rainfall to South Florida in the extended range. Looking at Satellite pictures things are starting to fire up in the Southern Caribbean. FOR THE EXTENDED...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS...OF COURSE...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 This Afternoons AFD from Miami sounds bullish on the system in the Caribbean bringing some much needed rainfall to South Florida in the extended range. Looking at Satellite pictures things are starting to fire up in the Southern Caribbean. Nice! When they talk extended, how far away is that? 5-7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Nice! When they talk extended, how far away is that? 5-7 days? Yea,most of the time it's the 4-7 day range they are talking about. Hopefully some Caribbean moisture will get pulled into Florida later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yea,most of the time it's the 4-7 day range they are talking about. Hopefully some Caribbean moisture will get pulled into Florida later next week. Thurs / Fri right now. Man does MBY need rain. Dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Thurs / Fri right now. Man does MBY need rain. Dry as a bone. I got another round of T-storms yesterday but need a lot more rain. Off and on chances the next week for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I got another round of T-storms yesterday but need a lot more rain. Off and on chances the next week for rain. Good for you. Up here, not so good. Hopefully the extended will bring some moisture up this way. Getting kind of used to it though. It always seems my back yard is the last to get the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Once again my area barely gets anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Once again my area barely gets anything. Didn't a nice cell go through Orlando Friday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Good for you. Up here, not so good. Hopefully the extended will bring some moisture up this way. Getting kind of used to it though. It always seems my back yard is the last to get the rain. Todays 12Z EURO offers some hope for the extended period. It's still 10 days out but it will be interesting to see if the trend for that system to come out of the Caribbean continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 At least through next weekend Jville isn't impressed with any additional moisture showing up. Long term...Thu-sun. A large middle/upper ridge will remain in place from the S central Continental U.S. To the middle MS valley to the southern Great Lakes. The 500 mb high pressure center will shift northeastward from Friday through sun from Texas/OK area to Tennessee. Meanwhile...broad low pressure in the western Caribbean will drift west to northwest and thus keep our forecast area in a prevailing east and southeast flow. Deep layer moisture remains low and only isolated convection is expected at this time from Friday-sun mainly due to sea breeze boundaries influences. Maximum temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 At least through next weekend Jville isn't impressed with any additional moisture showing up. Long term...Thu-sun. A large middle/upper ridge will remain in place from the S central Continental U.S. To the middle MS valley to the southern Great Lakes. The 500 mb high pressure center will shift northeastward from Friday through sun from Texas/OK area to Tennessee. Meanwhile...broad low pressure in the western Caribbean will drift west to northwest and thus keep our forecast area in a prevailing east and southeast flow. Deep layer moisture remains low and only isolated convection is expected at this time from Friday-sun mainly due to sea breeze boundaries influences. Maximum temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Yea, it seems any moisture that Florida might get from the Caribbean will be in the 7+ day range. With the deep easterly flow the WCSB will be closer to the coast, so it looks like limited boomer chances in my neck of the woods the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hey Florida gang, As mentioned earlier, headed down for a big fishing trip in Charlotte Harbor Tuesday through Sunday. I've noticed a big discrepancy between wind speed forecasts from the NAM vs. the GFS -- GFS much more bullish than the NAM on this easterly flow the AFD's have mentioned. Wondering why the NWS is going with the GFS -- would appreciate any help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Didn't a nice cell go through Orlando Friday evening? We did get a little, but it ended up being only .10 of an inch. I know areas of western Orange County that probably got more than 3" though. Its so hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hey Florida gang, As mentioned earlier, headed down for a big fishing trip in Charlotte Harbor Tuesday through Sunday. I've noticed a big discrepancy between wind speed forecasts from the NAM vs. the GFS -- GFS much more bullish than the NAM on this easterly flow the AFD's have mentioned. Wondering why the NWS is going with the GFS -- would appreciate any help! My guess is it's the way the models handle the low in the caribbean and resulting pressure gradient but it's just a guess. You might want to PM U-THANT.He is a Pro-Met out of the Melbourne Florida office and he would be able to give you a much better answer to your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A small chance of rain for north central Florida tomorrow but after that nothing through next Tuesday. Took a ride a few miles to my east yesterday. Man what a difference. They got a bunch of rain Friday evening and everything is lush and green. Around here I can barely get the weeds to grow over my septic tank. Totaled .86 for May and .72 for April so things are crazy dry. So much for the rainy season beginning on time around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A small chance of rain for north central Florida tomorrow but after that nothing through next Tuesday. Took a ride a few miles to my east yesterday. Man what a difference. They got a bunch of rain Friday evening and everything is lush and green. Around here I can barely get the weeds to grow over my septic tank. Totaled .86 for May and .72 for April so things are crazy dry. So much for the rainy season beginning on time around here. Yep, it seems the pattern will be hanging around to keep us dry in Central Florida for awhile. Hopefully, the pattern will change and the rainy season will start quicker then what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 latest Melbourne discussion says: FRI-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES...AT BEST... THROUGH THE PERIOD. pfffffffffft Still 10 days to 2 weeks before this starts getting weird. And frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 latest Melbourne discussion says: FRI-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES...AT BEST... THROUGH THE PERIOD. pfffffffffft Still 10 days to 2 weeks before this starts getting weird. And frustrating. Interesting sat loop of the little feature that will give North and Central Florida some sct rain chances tomorrow. That convection moving SW around the ridge and toward Florida is whats left over from a MCS that was in the Midwest Sunday and is off the Carolina Coast tonight. On another note, I don't buy the model solutions that keep the developing tropical system stuck in the Caribbean for the next 10 days. Just a hunch but I have a feeling we will see things change in the solutions the next 3 or 4 days. We will see. http://www.ssd.noaa....l/loop-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I see that feature off the Carolina Coast heading toward Florida is now INVEST 93L.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 This afternoons Tampa AFD offers some hope for some much needed rain starting Monday. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WEST TO EAST OVER THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT UP NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AT LEAST WITH THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY). STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON TIMING HOWEVER SO HAVE LEFT POPS CAPPED AT 20% FOR NOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 This afternoons Tampa AFD offers some hope for some much needed rain starting Monday. Are we ditching part II ? I'm down ...... flip flop between as the vibe goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.