Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Sounds wacky. it could just be like today i guess -- the gfs sorta has a similar idea but is a lot more powerful with the inland low so it never really gets together with the secondary http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_150m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 18z GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 kind of a weak surface reflection given that 500 low. it looks more like the euro now though with that secondary low coming up the coast -- a bit wamer than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sunday storm still a toss-up... ECM seems to be supporting a good rain and perhaps thunderstorms as temps climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s. GFS is obviously doing some very complicated stuff with this system. It's quite the head-scratcher... hoping for boomers, but being very skeptical as to how the models evolve this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 12z euro still off the coastal idea entirely and looks like there would be some threat on Sunday afternoon/evening for some storms. A secondary low does form right over the area after that as well so maybe a rainy night? After what we saw yesterday I might lean toward something similar though we'll see as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Checking the 12Z GFS forecast soundings for the area this Sunday... good wind shear, but the atmosphere is pretty stable ahead of the heavy precipitation. Maybe some embedded garden-variety thunderstorms. Pretty thick cloud cover as the system amps up in the Midwest/Southeast (again! ) and the strong UL winds advect the clouds from the upwind convection. If it plays out this way, we could run into similar problems that we saw with yesterday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Borrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You said it Kenny. Total weather snoozer going on right now. Nothing really that interesting to track or post about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Borrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring. That tends to happen in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 You said it Kenny. Total weather snoozer going on right now. Nothing really that interesting to track or post about. Yeah for sure! It's provided a well needed break though at least for me. Have gotten a lot of work done lately. That tends to happen in March - UNACCEPTABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Well our newly installed generator is down right now so I would fully expect a massively destructive line of severe storms to roll through before it is repaired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Thursday system could be a repeat of yesterday (severe to our south), otherwise that's really it for this week. I'm also keeping an eye on next Wednesday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 im hoping these events are good omens. i guess the se ridge could power up and kill our shots but what happened last yr with the uber warmth early is not terribly common. as someone who likes persistence it's good to see i think, though it has to continue a bit more perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 im hoping these events are good omens. i guess the se ridge could power up and kill our shots but what happened last yr with the uber warmth early is not terribly common. as someone who likes persistence it's good to see i think, though it has to continue a bit more perhaps. Here here - I agree it bodes well. We've had two of these little events so far I think we've got a few more up our sleeve before the persistence wears down. Hopefully though we can hold them off until we're in a more favorable time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 We did have 2 confirmed tornadoes... looks like an EF-0 and a low end EF-1? Or both EF-0's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 551 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011 ...TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN BEALETON VIRGINIA AND CHANTILLY VIRGINIA... LOCATION...BEALETON IN FAUQUIER COUNTY VIRGINIA DATE...MARCH 10 2011 ESTIMATED TIME...617 PM TO 620 PM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...4 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.5750N / 77.7605W ENDING LAT/LON...38.6189N / 77.7013W * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NONE * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... AFTER AN EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION WEATHER RADARS...GROUND OBSERVATIONS...AND A NWS GROUND SURVEY...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT A TORNADO STRUCK SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED TO BE A CATEGORY 1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE AND STRUCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY MARCH 10H...WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 90 MPH. THE TORNADO FORMED WITHIN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA THAT EVENING. THE TORNADO MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND CAUSED POCKETS OF DAMAGE ALONG A 4 MILE TRACK. DAMAGE INCLUDED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND A COLLAPSE OF A WELL CONSTRUCTED BARN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 28 AND OLD CAROLINA ROAD. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REGION AT 1:25 PM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS. THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR THE AFFECTED AREA AT 6:14 PM. WHEN SECONDS COUNT...RECEIVING LIFE SAVING WARNINGS CAN BE ACHIEVED WITH A NOAA WEATHER RADIO. THESE CAN BE SET TO ALARM ONLY FOR LIFE THREATENING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR YOUR PARTICULAR COUNTY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NWR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK FAUQUIER DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THE SURVEY. && ...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CHANTILLY VIRGINIA... LOCATION...CHANTILLY IN FAIRFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA DATE...MARCH 10 2011 ESTIMATED TIME...659 PM TO 703 PM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...4.5 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.8517N / 77.4508W ENDING LAT/LON...38.8986N / 77.3824W * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NONE * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT A EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR CHANTILLY IN FAIRFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY EVENING MARCH 10 2011. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED MINOR TREE DAMAGE ACROSS AN APPROXIMATE 4.5 MILE PATH. THE FIRST DAMAGE NOTED WAS NEAR THE SULLY STATION SHOPPING CENTER WEST OF BRADDOCK ROAD...WHERE THERE WERE MANY BROKEN TREE BRANCHES. AS THE TORNADO PROGRESSED TO THE NORTHEAST...PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED IN ELLANOR LAWRENCE PARK ALONG SOUTHBOUND VIRGINIA ROUTE 28. THE TORNADO CONTINUED ITS NORTHEAST TREK ACROSS ROUTE 28...WHERE MORE PINE TREES WERE FOUND SNAPPED IN THE WOODS OF LAWRENCE PARK NORTH OF THE WALNEY HOUSE. SPORADIC DAMAGE CONTINUED THROUGH THE SUBDIVISIONS SURROUNDING FROG BRANCH STREAM VALLEY PARK. THE MINOR TREE DAMAGE CONTINUE ACROSS US ROUTE 50 NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL TOWN AND COUNTRY CLUB. THE LAST OF THE DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE CAMERLEY SUBDIVISION BETWEEN FAIRFAX COUNTY PARKWAY AND WEST OX ROAD. THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR THE AFFECTED AREA AT 6:58 PM. WHEN SECONDS COUNT...RECEIVING LIFE SAVING WARNINGS CAN BE ACHIEVED WITH A NOAA WEATHER RADIO. THESE CAN BE SET TO ALARM ONLY FOR LIFE THREATENING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR YOUR PARTICULAR COUNTY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 heh.. people on CWG were bitching about the overhyped nature of the event and fact that nothing happened by late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Thursday system could be a repeat of yesterday (severe to our south), otherwise that's really it for this week. I'm also keeping an eye on next Wednesday's system. Wondering what the spring pattern was before the 2002 & 2003 severe seasons? I have a vague recollection of some very violent thunderstorms in those years with uber long-duration power outages, although I was only 10 & 11yrs old, so my memory might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2011 Author Share Posted March 13, 2011 Wondering what the spring pattern was before the 2002 & 2003 severe seasons? I have a vague recollection of some very violent thunderstorms in those years with uber long-duration power outages, although I was only 10 & 11yrs old, so my memory might be wrong. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/searchindex.html Well - April 28, 2002 was obviously the La Plata tornado so that was pretty big. A year before in 2001 was the College Park tornado. Looking at the archives that are contained in that link I posted - seems there were some pretty frequent events in 2002. I haven't looked at 2003 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 In looking at your link, I believe one of the events I'm recalling was 8/27/03. I remember the STWarn stated "destructive winds in excess of 80mph" which is the only time I ever saw that. http://www.spc.noaa....0827/index.html Still looking through 2002, theres so much there that I cannot decipher the events lol. Man I'd pay a large sum to see a season like that again. This yr just has a good feel to it, not sure why, it just does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Next Threat to Track Maybe? I don't see whats wrong with this picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Next Threat to Track Maybe? I don't see whats wrong with this picture... the low is too far north but it would probably support some minor threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 14, 2011 Author Share Posted March 14, 2011 the low is too far north but it would probably support some minor threat I'm also assuming that based on that surface track the associated 500 feature is way north as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I'm also assuming that based on that surface track the associated 500 feature is way north as well? yeah.. depending on warmth/moisture we could probably still get a line of strong storms but that setup is mroe marginal here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I'm also assuming that based on that surface track the associated 500 feature is way north as well? The position of the high is much better, so we're probably well into the mid-upper 70's if this verifies? Warmth is often underplayed until right before the event. Trend the whole thing SSE and we're game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Next Threat to Track Maybe? I don't see whats wrong with this picture... I can tell you... it's a magic number called 192. The position of the high is much better, so we're probably well into the mid-upper 70's if this verifies? Warmth is often underplayed until right before the event. Trend the whole thing SSE and we're game. Warmer temps and a more SSE track are counter-intuitive in a general sense. ----- It looks alright at the moment... at least it doesn't appear to be UNDERplaying the SE ridge like it has been in this range over the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 I can tell you... it's a magic number called 192. Warmer temps and a more SSE track are counter-intuitive in a general sense. ----- It looks alright at the moment... at least it doesn't appear to be UNDERplaying the SE ridge like it has been in this range over the last couple of weeks. theres just nothing going on, so I need something to look at and fantasize of. I know its the freakin LR GFS OP, but the pattern supports something like this in the ensembles, and with a 977mb up that far, I'd think there should be something coinciding with the early phasing to force it that way? I'd think a SSE movement of 500 miles or so and a more direct southerly flow would be nice for instability and higher DP. Just trying to stir up any trouble I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 theres just nothing going on, so I need something to look at and fantasize of. It's called porn. No, not weather porn. I know its the freakin LR GFS OP, but the pattern supports something like this in the ensembles, and with a 977mb up that far, I'd think there should be something coinciding with the early phasing to force it that way? I'd think a SSE movement of 500 miles or so and a more direct southerly flow would be nice for instability and higher DP. The general pattern is there, but it also tends to keep the good storms further north. Also, a 500 mile shift is a lot to ask for in this kind of pattern. What we COULD be looking at, as the 18z GFS tries to establish, is yet another one of these complex systems where we get a secondary low development off of the existing cold front. Should that happen like it has been with the recent systems in the eastern U.S., we could have an interesting day with proper dynamic support. Regardless, instability via lapse rates could be an issue as the mid and upper levels would be too warm. tl;dr - Give the storm a few days for the models to pick up on the actual track and evolution of the storm, since it appears to be rather convoluted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.