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Houston Area (+ AUS, SAT and MMMY) Snow Miracle Thread


Ed Lizard

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snow all the way along the lower and upper Texas coasts? If the EC is right, 3 inches for Houston. Continuing northeastward into NW Louisiana as well. Big ice storm over Louisiana and Mississippi. What a winter! :snowman:

No kidding. You'd be hard pressed to find two consecutive winters like this one and last for the southern plains/South. Really remarkable.

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To many creepy pm's from one disturbed individual at the local. Just a casual check in from time to time for me.

This event will be more about the prolonged cold then the snow unless it starts earlier or we have more of a serious ice event then currently being shown.

Rolling blackouts are fairly widespread already.

:unsure: I feel left out -I haven't gotten any creepy PMs... (lately)

The rolling blackouts are more of a problem for me right now, so a hurried check-in from time to time for me, punctuated by three 30+ minute blackouts so far...

We appear to be inline for snow here; any idea about windloads on this run? If we're looking at high winds again, I can expect more outages. I just want a nice pretty snow, but all this other stuff has to tag along :P

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:unsure: I feel left out -I haven't gotten any creepy PMs... (lately)

The rolling blackouts are more of a problem for me right now, so a hurried check-in from time to time for me, punctuated by three 30+ minute blackouts so far...

We appear to be inline for snow here; any idea about windloads on this run? If we're looking at high winds again, I can expect more outages. I just want a nice pretty snow, but all this other stuff has to tag along :P

Hah. Creepy pm's can be entertaining until they become incredibly boring. Plus I'm not a fan of folks passing along misinformation or misleading people so I'd rather just steer clear of that forum instead of carrying on. Some people react rather dramatically when called out on it.

The rolling blackouts seemed to have surprised many folks and like the thoughts posted in the main thread it has been handled very poorly. I agree with that poster as well that they should consider canceling school or look at other alternatives to alleviate the load.

My wife is in the Fort Hood area for a medical issue within the family and they had issues throughout the morning. I don't think it was a blackout as it was quite extended. I know across the DFW area and Houston as well that there have been numerous rolling blackouts within the regions.

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:unsure: I feel left out -I haven't gotten any creepy PMs... (lately)

The rolling blackouts are more of a problem for me right now, so a hurried check-in from time to time for me, punctuated by three 30+ minute blackouts so far...

We appear to be inline for snow here; any idea about windloads on this run? If we're looking at high winds again, I can expect more outages. I just want a nice pretty snow, but all this other stuff has to tag along :P

I currectly guessed who his creepy PM-er was. I have said creepy PM-er on ignore on the local KHOU forum, and now its a better reading experience.

AccuWx PPV Canadian- my house is barely on the drier side of the 0.25 inch liquid equivalent line. Waiting for AccuWx Euro to update graphics so I can look at forecast skew-Ts.

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Jeff from the local forum...

Yes...NAM and GFS are trending wetter and toward the old CMC solution. Could challange the 4.4 inches in 1960. Meso bands will really dump on some areas. Historic event shaping up for the entire region.<BR clear=all>
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Anyone know if it has ever snowed down in Brownsville or Corpus Christi? I think Corpus Christi has had snow before but Brownsville I'd be shocked if they have.

Christmas Miracle 2004. I think they still have a special section on the srh.noaa.gov/bro homepage...

Edit to add-

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2004event_christmasreport

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Cat 3, borderline 4 like disco from Jeff -

***Potentially historic winter storm event shaping up for Texas***

Significant accumulations of ice now likely resulting in downed power lines and trees limbs across the coastal sections of TX with heavy snow across inland locations. Ice accumulations may approach 1/4th to ½ of an inch which is well into the local warning criteria for winter storm/ice storm watches/warnings. Widespread power disruptions/outages appear possible.

4.4 inch snowfall for KIAH in 1960 may be challenged with this event (this is the second highest snow total for Houston on record). The highest is 20 inches on Feb 14, 1895 and I think that record will stand!

Discussion:

Models are not handling the rapid advection of moisture into the region today as noted by the increasing cloud cover. Water vapor shows an impressive plume of Pacific moisture aimed right at the region and this will increase with time. Large scale upper low over continues to dig into the great basin and will begin the eject eastward Thursday. Appears models forecasting worst case QPF amounts are in fact going to be the correct route to follow and will bump all totals while adding heavy ice accumulations to parts of Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Chambers, Calhoun, and Victoria counties.

Will attempt to resolve the P-type changes that we are going to face, but it is really a guessing game as to when P-types change and how this affects accumulations. Models have intensified the warm nose forecast to back toward the coast while keepings surface temperatures well below freezing which now brings the threat of heavy freezing rain/sleet to the SE 1/3rd of the area and snow/heavy snow elsewhere. Other item will be to onset precipitation between noon and 300pm Thursday and linger it until early afternoon Friday giving the area an extended period of falling precipitation. Impressive 50kt moisture advection above this cold dome is forecast on Thursday afternoon…so what does fall could be on the heavy side.

So here we go as my best shot right now on P-types and accumulations:

SE of a line from Alice to Victoria to Bay City to Angleton to downtown Houston to Liberty:

Freezing rain/sleet mix starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night. Warm nose may deepen enough to remove sleet and keep all freezing rain. Friday morning colder air sweeps in a change over to snow. Ice accumulations of .10-.5 of an inch on all surface will likely produce downed trees and power lines. I am not sure the models have that warm nose correct, and if they do not if could be all snow for the coast.

SE of a line from Livingston to Columbus to San Antonio:

Sleet starting Thursday afternoon changing to snow. This area appears to lie in the most favorable lift and moisture area (roughly along US 59) for the most impressive accumulations. Expect all snow Thursday night and Friday. Meso scale bands will produce very heavy snowfall of 1-2” per hour. Will go with accumulations of sleet of less than 1 inch and snow fall accumulations of 3-5 inches area wide with isolated totals upwards of 6-8 inches under the meso bands.

For the rest of the area:

Snow will onset for the entire event. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely with isolated totals of 4-5 inches.

Actions:

HCTRA and TXDOT are applying anti-icing agent to area freeways/bridges and overpasses at this time across the entire region

Tracks are being equipped with spreaders and loaded with sand to spread on area freeways

Harris County EOC has moved to Level 3 activation

Residents should prepare today for potential widespread power outages, down tree limbs and power lines, and extremely dangerous travel conditions.

Hazards:

Travel:

Conditions will rapidly go downhill with the onset of the precipitation. Very cold ground temperatures/road temperatures are already in place suggesting that what falls will freeze/accumulate on impact. Surface roads will be in just as bad of shape as bridges and overpasses given the very cold ground. Expect travel will be nearly impossible by Friday morning on all major freeways and surface streets. Sanding operations will only have modest success due to precipitation intensity and widespread nature of the event and road crews will likely be overwhelmed quickly.

Power/Vegetation:

Now that freezing rain/icing is becoming a larger threat along the coast significant impacts to trees and power line are possible. Weight of glazed ice on tree limbs and power lines may result in extensive damage and widespread power outages. Texas power grid is already under tremendous strain due to frozen natural gas supply lines and this will potentially add more strain and damage to the network. Power conservation is strongly encouraged to help maintain the stability of the entire power grid and ERCOT has ordered rotating blackouts to help reduce the strain on the system. Damage by ice to the actual power infrastructure is possible…and restoration will not be quick.

Aviation:

Big trouble on this aspect as aircraft will require extensive de-icing of control surfaces and runways ice/snow removal. Given the expected intensity of the falling precipitation and very cold surface temperatures, it will be hard for ground crews to keep up and expect significant delays and cancellations at both major Houston airports.

Will try and get the next update out by 430/500pm with updates on accumulations.

Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warnings will be required later tonight if not sooner.

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All the model soundings make me nervous re- p-type, despite being all below freezing, but if it is snow, the SREFs are happy...

This is an all snow event for Houston. No ice unless every model is wrong. I would just hope you get the QPF now to support a bigger storm.

*revision* For the airport. Mixing possible on the coast. But really-- looks like snow mostly.

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This is an all snow event for Houston. No ice unless every model is wrong. I would just hope you get the QPF now to support a bigger storm.

*revision* For the airport. Mixing possible on the coast. But really-- looks like snow mostly.

There is some warmer air aloft indicated on the 18z NAM that could give us a freezing rain threat for a bit to start. Icy, then some snow

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Here's the KWRF's guess. Through 05/0z

txsnow.png

Thanks for the high res map... for such a small area of possible snow being shown in most models around here, I just wanted to be sure if it was over the mountains or in the valley...looks like 0.5" to 1". I'm keeping my expectations low, as probably the models are having a hard time with orography.

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There's is some warmer air aloft indicated on the 18z NAM that could give us a freezing rain threat for a bit to start. Icy, then some snow

Sleet maybe. Freezing rain? The cold layer is too thick. I'm sticking with my guns, sorry.

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Here's HGX's current thinking:

332 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...

PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SE TX HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO AT LEAST

BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY ACROSS THE NW

HALF. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA

TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 5-15

MPH RANGE. AS A RESULT...ONLY A SLOW DROP IN TEMP IS EXPECTED

TONIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS AS A RESULT.

REGARDLESS...THE HARD FREEZE WILL CONTINUE...AND THE WARNING WILL

REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD

COVER ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN

THE AFTN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW

MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH

TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION TONIGHT/THURSDAY...THEN LIFT EASTWARD

ACROSS TEXAS THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME

INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT WITH SE TX POSSIBLY GOING INTO THE RIGHT

REAR OF A 300 MB JET MAX THU NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL

BEGIN TO DEEPEN THURSDAY WITH PWS APPROACHING AN INCH NEAR THE

COAST. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP

ACROSS SE TX BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. AS IS TYPICAL IN

THESE SITUATIONS THE ONSET OF PRECIP IS DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE

ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE PRECIP WILL

REACH THE GROUND. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP

DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE

POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND OVER THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THU MORNING. HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE

MORE SIGNIFICANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING MIDDAY

NEAR THE COAST...MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL ZONES...AND LATE AFTN OVER

THE NORTH. THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL GET GOING LATE AFTN/EARLY

EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.

PRECIP TYPE: EXPECTING VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET NEAR THE COAST AT

THE ONSET THURSDAY...WITH JUST SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN

HALF. BY THURSDAY EVENING...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT RESULT IN SOME

WARMING IN THE PROFILE IN THE 700-900 MB LEVEL. THIS WARMING WILL

RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SE

THIRD OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE

FREEZING RAIN THREAT AREA WILL RUN FROM A MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN

HOUSTON TO RYE LINE. WEST OF THIS LINE...SLEET AND SNOW ARE

EXPECTED...WITH ALL SNOW OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. EAST OF THIS

LINE...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ARE

EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY ICE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZORIA...

SOUTHERN GALVESTON...CHAMBERS...AND SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTIES.

THIS THINKING REFLECTS THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A GOOD

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS.

AMOUNTS: IN THE SNOW AND SLEET AREA EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1

TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES. THE BEST CHANCE

OF 4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS AND LAKES

AREA OF EAST TEXAS. IN THE ICE AREA (FAR SE)...ICE ACCUMULATIONS

OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

IMPACTS: THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE WINTER

WEATHER EVENTS OVER SE TX THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS WILL BE THE

COLDER TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND

EVAPORATIVE COOLING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER

WITH THIS EVENT. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH

HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ROADS BECOMING ICED OVER...EVEN WITH LIGHT

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ELEVATED

SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...

POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FREEZING RAIN

THREAT AREA.

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY AS BEST

LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE

POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE NOT REFLECTED

THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID

30S FRI AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN

ROAD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...REFREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND

LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE HARD FREEZE. SUNSHINE EXPECTED

SATURDAY WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW ALL OF SE TX TO CLIMB ABOVE

FREEZING BY LATE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY

LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY...WITH THE

GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE

NEXT FRONT.

35/46/38/33

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National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing? icon_e_confused.gificon_question.gificon_cry.gif

It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between the GFS, which shows most of the heavy precipitation in the RGV and Coastal Bend, and a pocket near the Houston area versus the European (and I believe other models), which has (have) most of the heaviest precipitation in SE Texas.

Is any particular model more reliable in terms of QPF than any other model?

Any thoughts on which model forecast is most likely to verify? How much am I looking at in the McAllen area?

The GFS has been giving me anywhere from 2-3 inches, while the European gave me .70". All comments are welcomed, as I am still learning. icon_e_smile.gif

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as much as i hate a complainer, it pains me to have my first shot at a good snowstorm here in tx likely pass to my south.

but the weather does what the weather does. this won't be the first time that i'll be crossing my fingers for a north trend on a snow event. regardless, hou should have fun!

still looks like 2" here if we're lucky.

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Evening update from Jeff-

Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of coastal Texas and have been expanded into central TX and SW LA. Historic snow and ice event within 24 hours of onset. Record snowfall totals may be challenged by this event.

Discussion: Little has changed with the overall pattern which conitnues to exhibit a classic TX winter storm profile. Deep upper trough digging into northern MX at this time will develop a NW Gulf of Mexico surface low which throws copious moisture NW into the frigid arctic air mass in place. While aloft the sub-tropical jet stream will bring moisture in from the Pacific. While the low levels are dry, the snow falling through the air column will gradully moisten the surface layer starting early Thursday. Widespread snow/sleet will develop by Thursday evening with heavy snow likely overnight.

Timing: Models have trended a little faster today with the onset timing. In fact a few models suggest we could begin to see flurries along the coast before noon on Thursday, but this would be very light as the surface layer saturates. Wet bulb effects and ongoing cold air advection will likely keep temperatures below freezing. Light snow and sleet should develop along the coast and begin to spread inland around the noon-100pm time period. Light snow will expand northward over the rest of SE TX by 300-400pm with accumulations starting about an hour after the snow begins...possibly sooner if the temperatures are in the upper 20's at the onset. Thursday night weak warm layer tries to advance toward the coast and may push inland resulting in sleet and freezing rain and ice accumulations...I continue to be wary of this P-type change given how cold the air column is and the fact that the models may be overdoing the 1-2 degree above freezing warm nose (around or above the 850mb level) above a very cold surface. Will cut back on the ice accumulations around Galveston Bay and favor more sleet/snow instead...I may end up being wrong on this, but I just think this air mass is colder than the models show it to be.

Accumulations: I am going with a 10:1 ratio but it could be closer to 12:1 given the very cold/dry air mass in place. This means an inch of liquid would produce 10-12 inches of snow. These are very high ratios for coastal TX, typical ratios are usually closer to 7:1 and in Dec 09 were around 5:1. Other aspect with accumulation is that the ground will be very cold, so what falls will not melt adding to the amounts. I am very confident that snow will fall, I am not as confident on accumulations as much depends on what P-type is falling and for how long at a given location. Freezing rain will mean more ice, while freezing rain and sleet will also cut down on snow accumulations.

With all that said here is my best try at accumulations right now:

Southeast of a line from McAllen to Alice offshore to Bay City to Kemah to High Island: Light snow early changing to freezing rain/sleet Thursday afternoon/evening. Accumulations of ice of 1/10th to 1/4th of an inch. Mix changing to sleet/snow early Friday...snow accumulations of 1-2 inches.

Southeast of a line from San Antonio to Hempstead to Conroe to Livingston: Snow/sleet will start the event with all snow likely after 600pm Thursday. Accumulations of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated totals of 4-5" possible. This area will be the favored location for meso scale snow bands and these bands may produce very heavy snow in this corridor including Wharton, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Waller, Austin, and Colorado counties.

North of the line from San Antonio to Hempstead to Conroe to Livingston: Snow for the entire event will accumulations of 1-3 inches likely with isolated amounts up to 4". While snow is favored the entire event, the moisture will be greater closer toward the coast which may cut back on totals this far north.

Meso Banding: NAM and GFS both show convective precipitation with this event which was seen in Dec 2004 resulting in the banding of very heavy snow. Strong isentropic ascent combined with frontgenic forcing in the favorable baroclinic zone greatly enhances the threat for this meso banding along and about 50 miles N of the US 59 corridor. This is the area that could really get hammered with some impressive totals and the NAM has been hinting at this over NE Harris, N Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and E Montgomery counties the last few runs, I like that idea and will also include Waller, Fort Bend, Wharton and Austin to mesh where this zone may setup. It is impossible to forecast where these bands will form and how long they will remain over a certain location...so it is impossible to know where some of the higher totals will be. Under these bands snowfall rates of 1-2 inches will be possible per hour with visibilities falling to less than 1/4th of a mile.

Preparations: Looks like much of the area will fall below freezing tonight and not get back above freezing until maybe midday Saturday. This extended period of sub-freezing temperatures may freeze pipes as happened last night at some locations. Make sure pipes are protected and check your water pressure regularly to ensure pipes are not frozen. Travel conditions on area roadways is going to go downhill very quickly Thursday afternoon/evening. Not sure if we wil get the evening rush hour complete before roads begin to accumulate ice/snow. Best estimate now is onset of precipitation over the heavy metro areas in the 300-500pm time period with accumulations starting 30 minutes to an hour after snow begins to fall...this really does not get us through the rush hour and feel by 600pm snow will start to accumulate on bridges/overpasses and some surface streets. After 700pm expect travel to be extremely dangerous and by Friday morning nearly impossible as all roadways will be ice covered and snow packed. Road crews are going to be overwhelmed with the event and will not be able to spread snad fast enough to keep most roadways open. Travel after 600pm Thursday is being strongly discouraged through all day on Friday and likely through noon on Saturday.

School Closings: Early Release on Thursday: Wharton ISD: noon Lamar CISD: around noon Additional ISD's will likely release early on Thursday especially southwest and many schools will likely be closed on Friday.

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no idea how well our in-house model handles things, but the amwrf has about 1" here by 6z fri with decent banding as far north as the tyler area

midnight thurs snow total accums

Hmmm that model sure looks crappy for Houston. Will root against that!

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