goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There is more than one met on board saying don't buy the eastern shift I would tend to side with them and to me it doesn't matter it is not going to snow in my backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hoosier, new thread- GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Radar over Texas/OK: GFS QPF ending 06Z. Not doing too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not doubting our mets but looking at the 0z nam 6 hour simulated radar it seems to be right on with the precip in texas. Or maybe I have been misreading the radar and thats what it should look like in 6 hours. If thats the case then it's too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are we making a separate OBS thread or no? Sorry I'm sure it's been answered but I haven't seen an answer yet and want to know before I post some pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So you are ignoring the shifts on two major 0z models? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So you are ignoring the shifts on two major 0z models? If you live by the models, you die by them. This type of practice is rapidly becoming meteorological cancer. Remember several days ago when the Euro lost the storm for one run and a bunch of people got bent out of shape? There's always a reason a model changes its solution, and the way to find out if it is worth considering is figuring out why that change occurred. If this happens to be model initialization or feedback errors, then those errors propagate and increase in size through the entire run. If this shift is a result of a solid meteorological reason, then it's worth paying attention to. The important thing to note is that we're still dealing with a sensitive process of non-linear cyclogenesis. Frankly, I'm not going to get in a tizzy over these two alone. Now, if we determine a good reason, and more of the guidance (especially say... the 03Z SREF) comes in line with it, then changes may be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, the mets at GRR know what they are doing. Some of the further east WFO's pulled the trigger a bit early IMO. When they issued the watch, there was still uncertainty as to exactly how much we would get. Will most likely see a warning from their 430 AFD update. Nabbed this off point and click just a few minutes ago for here. It/point and click is starting to come up here and there now as well as the rest of the site. So i am guessing that they are working on the issues that has plagued them for a number of hours now. Could be the reason for the delays on updates too. Overnight: Snow. Steady temperature around 15. Wind chill values as low as -1. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around 1 inch. Tuesday: Snow likely and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 15 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 1 inch. Tuesday Night: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 23 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 13 inches. Wednesday: Snow and areas of blowing snow before 1pm, then snow likely and areas of blowing snow after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a north northeast wind between 21 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Down right dangerous here with ice accretion occurring very quickly - prime icing with a temperature of 23 and moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not impressed by the decrease in intensity on the NCEPs not matching well as has been discussed gonna be real interesting to wake up tomorrow and see where we are at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong but 6z is 1 or 2 central correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nabbed this off point and click just a few minutes ago for here. It/point and click is starting to come up here and there now as well as the rest of the site. So i am guessing that they are working on the issues that has plagued them for a number of hours now. Could be the reason for the delays on updates too. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not doubting our mets but looking at the 0z nam 6 hour simulated radar it seems to be right on with the precip in texas. Or maybe I have been misreading the radar and thats what it should look like in 6 hours. If thats the case then it's too far east. Problem with the NAM is that the stength of the low is awful so far. Right now the low is 1002 in S. Texas while the NAM has a 1006 or 1008 low at this time. That would screw up the run from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12034-january-31-february-2-historic-winter-storm-part-8/page__pid__409153#entry409153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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