k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yup. Radar dome damaged and the comm link is down. ouch. hopefully they have a nice waterproof bunker there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 939 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 938.8. I don't understand how this is still reporting. The barometer must be battery powered and floating on top of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Josh They seem to be flying blind at the moment. Although we are being told we will only get a Cat 2 here now???? Not sure if this is right but people here are pretty worried. I have family in Townsville so I am worried for them....... Can you give me any idea on your thoughts about what we may expect.....it is amazing as the wind as picked up and the skies have certainly changed although I am starting to feel we may not get too much at all.....what are you thinking by looking at everything??? Cheers Mardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Josh They seem to be flying blind at the moment. Although we are being told we will only get a Cat 2 here now???? Not sure if this is right but people here are pretty worried. I have family in Townsville so I am worried for them....... Can you give me any idea on your thoughts about what we may expect.....it is amazing as the wind as picked up and the skies have certainly changed although I am starting to feel we may not get too much at all.....what are you thinking by looking at everything??? Cheers Mardi You should really just follow BOM advisories. Down to 938.0 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You should really just follow BOM advisories. Down to 938.0 now Thanks K**** - We just heard that we can't get updates only through satellite images? As Willis Island must have been damaged..... I will keep listening to BoM and see how we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks K**** - We just heard that we can't get updates only through satellite images? As Willis Island must have been damaged..... I will keep listening to BoM and see how we go.... it should come onto mainland radars at cairns and townsville a while before landfall. until then satellite is the only option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 another 938. temperature jumped...eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Josh They seem to be flying blind at the moment. Although we are being told we will only get a Cat 2 here now???? Not sure if this is right but people here are pretty worried. I have family in Townsville so I am worried for them....... Can you give me any idea on your thoughts about what we may expect.....it is amazing as the wind as picked up and the skies have certainly changed although I am starting to feel we may not get too much at all.....what are you thinking by looking at everything??? Cheers Mardi Hi, Mardi-- I don't know where you're getting this crazy information, but it's absurd. Like kush said, just read the BoM advices. And see the map that I made, above: you are in the direct-hit zone and will experience some of the highest winds, which will occur between Cairns and Ingham! Townsville will probably get off easy. If the cyclone takes the track predicted by the BoM, you're going to see a lot worse than your family down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 937.8 mb. Seems like it's bottomed out. Not as low as I was expecting-- although it could be that the station isn't in the eye or isn't in the center of it. (Too bad we're not getting wind obs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks pretty far south of the forecast track on the SSD loop - perhaps not far enough to get to Townsville, but definately south of Innisfail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not terribly impressed with the IR imagery the last couple of hours. I think the cyclone might have peaked: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS...EYE WARMER BUT RAGGED SO DT=6.0 BASED ON WHITE RING. FT BASED ON PT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 937.8 mb. Seems like it's bottomed out. Not as low as I was expecting-- although it could be that the station isn't in the eye or isn't in the center of it. (Too bad we're not getting wind obs.) it has to be in the eye....2C temp jump since that eyewall encounter it probably grazed the inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 it has to be in the eye....2C temp jump since that eyewall encounter it probably grazed the inside Agreed. There can be big pressure differences even within the eye-- from the periphery to the center-- as I saw last year during Karl. My pressure readings at the edge of the eye were more than 10 mb higher than at the center of the eye, just a few miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi, Mardi-- I don't know where you're getting this crazy information, but it's absurd. Like kush said, just read the BoM advices. And see the map that I made, above: you are in the direct-hit zone and will experience some of the highest winds, which will occur between Cairns and Ingham! Townsville will probably get off easy. If the cyclone takes the track predicted by the BoM, you're going to see a lot worse than your family down there. Thanks Josh We are prepared - although to be honest I was getting more worried about my family in Townsville. I will let you know how I am going through out the day. I guess for someone who has not been in a cyclone before it's a little hard to comprehend that a day like today is going to turn so nasty.... Anyway I better go and check everything....thanks Josh. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks Josh We are prepared - although to be honest I was getting more worried about my family in Townsville. I will let you know how I am going through out the day. I guess for someone who has not been in a cyclone before it's a little hard to comprehend that a day like today is going to turn so nasty.... Anyway I better go and check everything....thanks Josh. Cheers My pleasure. Just watch for the BoM advices-- they come out every three hours. If the track shifts more toward Townsville, they'll mention it! We look forward to your updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pressure's going back up on Willis Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 10.43am The window of opportunity for evacuating will close in around three hours. Cairns hospital is already empty after staging the largest hospital evacuation in Australian history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pressure's going back up on Willis Island. Down again 937.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The final wind reading (76 kt G 100) was at 8:10 am EST, when the pressure was 955.1 mb. That was 1 hour and 10 minutes before the lowest pressure at 9:20 am, which was 937.8 mb. Given these data, I think it's safe to say the wind peaked quite a bit later, and got much higher, than that final reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 mission beach/dunk island/wongaling beach--crushing imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Down again 937.6 Oops-- guess I spoke to soon. Two readings in a row went up, so I assumed it was safe to call the trend. But I should know better-- as these kinds of fluctuations in the eye are common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Pressure's back over 940 mb, so that little dip was just a localized eddy or something. The trend is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Their radars must be quite a bit tougher than ours. Poor coral reefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Their radars must be quite a bit tougher than ours. Poor coral reefs. OK, you better just hush up, wiseguy. Just run along and let the adults discuss the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 SATCON was 128 kts at 16z and 17z. That was probably the peak. We'll probably get a posthumous 22z update, but it's clearly weakened since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking a little better perhaps-- a tad more symmetric: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's still going to come in as an awfully strong storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's still going to come in as an awfully strong storm... Fore sure-- at the very least a big, nasty Cat 3 (USA) with a fat windfield. A Wilma-in-FL kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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