November 2010

[FoothillsNC]

12z ens mean agrees with you, nice weather for the next 10 days or so before we start stepping down the temps... After 240 minus 5-10C negative 850 temp anomalies are along the EC and only slightly modify prior to the end of the run. May need a jacket for Black Friday shopping.

http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html

I've been liking the idea of overrunning somewhere from the central/lower plains around Thanksgiving to Midatlantic, still do. The 50/50 low is a big uncertainty, exactly where it is at that time, but the Greenland riding looks very strong, and probably to the point where it retrogrades and cutsoff, which would leave a huge central/eastern US trough just after Thanksgiving, meaning cold....and if the trough or PV is well west toward southern Canada, then a storm would pop in the Southeast somewhere.

The Euro now has a look that supports that, with a huge PNA ridge from the Gulf of Alaska at day 10, and a 50/50 which supresses the southeast Ridge and 2 lobes of the PV, the main being over south central Canada, which would likely induce a storm or overrunning in the Southeast or lower Ohio/Tenn Valley cold sector after days 10. Its still way out there and all guesswork, but most likely between Thanksgiving and shortly thereafter, with all the cold air over the continent (the southeast willbe the last place to get into it), there should be some wintery precip....probably on the other side of the Apps. Keep an eye on strong damming, if a strong surface high can get into the Northeast at some point, while we still have energy dropping into West Texas...it would get very interesting, which is pretty early for us to really have a threat. But before any of this, we'll roast next week.

Getting very windy the last 2 hours. Shaking the windows.

[WeatherNC]

12z EC just took the mega-block to a whole new level

[Tyler Penland]

12z EC just took the mega-block to a whole new level

+1

imo this entire run is a disaster though.

[Brian]

What happened?

[Tyler Penland]

What happened?

What happened where/when?

[WeatherNC]

+1

imo this entire run is a disaster though.

Why? This just adds further evidence to the possibility of a period of sig high latitude blocking. The PV is locked into central Canada initially, but where does it go from there... It sure as heck is not going north, and the second lobe near New Foundland is moving west do to the blocking in the North Atl. That would like force a sig could shot into the Lakes and EC, and the pattern would repeat as lobes of cold rotate around as long as the block holds and the PAC remains favorable. Excellent run for mid Nov. Sorry for any typos, on the iPhone waiting to pick the little up from school.

[Brian]

I'm sorry. I don't know as much about the forecasting

Models lime you guys do. Thanks for response.

[Weather Czar]

Why? This just adds further evidence to the possibility of a period of sig high latitude blocking. The PV is locked into central Canada initially, but where does it go from there... It sure as heck is not going north, and the second lobe near New Foundland is moving west do to the blocking in the North Atl. That would like force a sig could shot into the Lakes and EC, and the pattern would repeat as lobes of cold rotate around as long as the block holds and the PAC remains favorable. Excellent run for mid Nov. Sorry for any typos, on the iPhone waiting to pick the little up from school.

I agree that is a nice setup! I just hope that it verify's.

[Brian]

I'm sorry. I don't know as much about the forecasting

Models like you guys do. Thanks for response.

[Brian]

Sorry for the double. Doing this on iPhone

[Tyler Penland]

Why? This just adds further evidence to the possibility of a period of sig high latitude blocking. The PV is locked into central Canada initially, but where does it go from there... It sure as heck is not going north, and the second lobe near New Foundland is moving west do to the blocking in the North Atl. That would like force a sig could shot into the Lakes and EC, and the pattern would repeat as lobes of cold rotate around as long as the block holds and the PAC remains favorable. Excellent run for mid Nov. Sorry for any typos, on the iPhone waiting to pick the little up from school.

I agree with the trend of temp going southward but the overall on this run just seems weird to me. I would throw out everything about this run except general trends (cooler, then warmer, then much much colder).

Edit: In other words, I don't see this one verifying.

[buckeyefan1]

12z EC just took the mega-block to a whole new level

Looks like the start of meteorological winter will kick of with a bang for someone

[burgertime]

I've been liking the idea of overrunning somewhere from the central/lower plains around Thanksgiving to Midatlantic, still do. The 50/50 low is a big uncertainty, exactly where it is at that time, but the Greenland riding looks very strong, and probably to the point where it retrogrades and cutsoff, which would leave a huge central/eastern US trough just after Thanksgiving, meaning cold....and if the trough or PV is well west toward southern Canada, then a storm would pop in the Southeast somewhere.

The Euro now has a look that supports that, with a huge PNA ridge from the Gulf of Alaska at day 10, and a 50/50 which supresses the southeast Ridge and 2 lobes of the PV, the main being over south central Canada, which would likely induce a storm or overrunning in the Southeast or lower Ohio/Tenn Valley cold sector after days 10. Its still way out there and all guesswork, but most likely between Thanksgiving and shortly thereafter, with all the cold air over the continent (the southeast willbe the last place to get into it), there should be some wintery precip....probably on the other side of the Apps. Keep an eye on strong damming, if a strong surface high can get into the Northeast at some point, while we still have energy dropping into West Texas...it would get very interesting, which is pretty early for us to really have a threat. But before any of this, we'll roast next week.

Getting very windy the last 2 hours. Shaking the windows.

I know others have mentioned this but the snows I remember as a kid always came with huge temp swings. It would be snowy and 28 then the next day when the system moved out it would be 55 and sunny. Or the day before it would be warm and then bam the temps would crash and we would get hit with the system. We just can't get the damn timing right lately. Hopefully with the pieces in place we can get lucky early this year.

[burgertime]

I agree with the trend of temp going southward but the overall on this run just seems weird to me. I would throw out everything about this run except general trends (cooler, then warmer, then much much colder).

Edit: In other words, I don't see this one verifying.

Yea I think the thing to take away is that both models have been pretty consistent pointing to a cool down. You're probably right though it's the usual Euro drama that shows up one time out of 20. I'll screen cap it to see if it shows back up a few days before on some runs.

[Weather Czar]

I agree with the trend of temp going southward but the overall on this run just seems weird to me. I would throw out everything about this run except general trends (cooler, then warmer, then much much colder).

Edit: In other words, I don't see this one verifying.

Why? It has been showing the same blocking pattern for the past few days now, Same as the GFS and the GGEM Ensembles.

[burgertime]

Why? It has been showing the same blocking pattern for the past few days now, Same as the GFS and the GGEM Ensembles.

This is the first time it's had that much cool air in the majority of the central US though right? I haven't been paying too much attention. Perhaps the Euro is catching on though.

[Brian]

Hope this happens.

[dsaur]

A touch over an inch for the event now. Not what I was hoping for, but considering how much dry slotting I had to endure, I'll sure take it. Sunny now...a bit of wind. At least it didn't all fall in an hour. T

[Brian]

A touch over an inch for the event now. Not what I was hoping for, but considering how much dry slotting I had to endure, I'll sure take it. Sunny now...a bit of wind. At least it didn't all fall in an hour. T

We just need some cold. Really sick of this

Endless Summer.

[Brian]

A touch over an inch for the event now. Not what I was hoping for, but considering how much dry slotting I had to endure, I'll sure take it. Sunny now...a bit of wind. At least it didn't all fall in an hour. T

We just need some cold. Really sick of this

Endless Summer.

[Amos83]

It funny because almost at this exact time last year both the GFS and the Euro was saying a big cool down was coming right around or just after Thanksgiving but it never really came. I remember many people, including me, were hyped about the first week of December as being significant but as it got closer the models kept delaying. Hopefully this year the above mentioned time frame actually becomes reality. I'd love to do some Black Friday shopping in cold weather to get me in the mood for Christmas......

Love the 12z Euro too.... it would be too good to be true if it worked out exactly as it is depicting with that MONSTER high clocking everything up. One of these winters we will get that epic blocking pattern to take shape. Just have to wait it out.

[Weather Czar]

This is the first time it's had that much cool air in the majority of the central US though right? I haven't been paying too much attention. Perhaps the Euro is catching on though.

Actually i think it trended a little warmer on its run today.. It does look like its setting us up for a cold and stormy start to Dec.

[WeatherNC]

It funny because almost at this exact time last year both the GFS and the Euro was saying a big cool down was coming right around or just after Thanksgiving but it never really came. I remember many people, including me, were hyped about the first week of December as being significant but as it got closer the models kept delaying. Hopefully this year the above mentioned time frame actually becomes reality. I'd love to do some Black Friday shopping in cold weather to get me in the mood for Christmas......

Love the 12z Euro too.... it would be too good to be true if it worked out exactly as it is depicting with that MONSTER high clocking everything up. One of these winters we will get that epic blocking pattern to take shape. Just have to wait it out.

That was last winter, remember... In all seriousness, I do not remember the forecast leading up to last Thanksgiving, but I have vivid memories of standing inline outside TRU for 2 hours in the freezing cold and wind, just to snag a lego set for my son that was on sale. Last Thanksgiving, at-least that night, was pretty cold here, and windy.

[Tyler Penland]

Actually i think it trended a little warmer on its run today.. It does look like its setting us up for a cold and stormy start to Dec.

It hasn't showed -10 850MB anywhere near Georgia until this run. It also drilled the cold in generaly way further south.

Also, I didn't say the block wasn't going to happen, I think it is. However, I don't think its going to be as dramatic as this model run shows. Remember, this is still WAY out there in la-la land.

[Gastonwxman]

I've been liking the idea of overrunning somewhere from the central/lower plains around Thanksgiving to Midatlantic, still do. The 50/50 low is a big uncertainty, exactly where it is at that time, but the Greenland riding looks very strong, and probably to the point where it retrogrades and cutsoff, which would leave a huge central/eastern US trough just after Thanksgiving, meaning cold....and if the trough or PV is well west toward southern Canada, then a storm would pop in the Southeast somewhere.

The Euro now has a look that supports that, with a huge PNA ridge from the Gulf of Alaska at day 10, and a 50/50 which supresses the southeast Ridge and 2 lobes of the PV, the main being over south central Canada, which would likely induce a storm or overrunning in the Southeast  or lower Ohio/Tenn Valley cold sector after days 10. Its still way out there and all guesswork, but most likely between Thanksgiving and shortly thereafter, with all the cold air over the continent (the southeast will be the last place to get into it), there should be some wintry precip....probably on the other side of the Apps. Keep an eye on strong damming, if a strong surface high can get into the Northeast at some point, while we still have energy dropping into West Texas...it would get very interesting, which is pretty early for us to really have a threat. But before any of this, we'll roast next week.

Getting very windy the last 2 hours. Shaking the windows.

I agree.  Having a high like the one GFS is predicting near the end of this month will really help usher in the colder air down here and bank up against the Apps. Last I checked, it was forecast to be around 1030mb, with the 540 diving well south.

If you don't mind my asking, what do you think the projected highs and lows would be in the case of that troughing scenario for the Eastern Conus, and what is your thought on how strong the 50/50 low could get?

[Amos83]

That was last winter, remember... In all seriousness, I do not remember the forecast leading up to last Thanksgiving, but I have vivid memories of standing inline outside TRU for 2 hours in the freezing cold and wind, just to snag a lego set for my son that was on sale. Last Thanksgiving, at-least that night, was pretty cold here, and windy.

Very true.... although here in CLT we were didn't really get to take advantage of the great setup last year. Places just west, north, and southwest cleaned up while we seemed to be just a hair outside all winter. We did get some snow but nothing to write home about like a lot of places.

You may be right about T-giving being cold last year. It was a year ago so my memory may not be correct.

[Brian]

It hasn't showed -10 850MB anywhere near Georgia until this run. It also drilled the cold in generaly way further south.

Also, I didn't say the block wasn't going to happen, I think it is. However, I don't think its going to be as dramatic as this model run shows. Remember, this is still WAY out there in la-la land.

I wish just for once it could be right. Like a lot

Of Mets have said, this is going to be a roller

coaster ride.

[burgertime]

Actually i think it trended a little warmer on its run today.. It does look like its setting us up for a cold and stormy start to Dec.

Your right it was a smidge warmer on the east end of it but it did dig a little deeper with the cool air across the plains with the 12z run. It certainly didn't look to funky, just a bit of a difference in the PV.

Edit: could be wrong with my terminology 3 years at Eastern and now here and I'm still an idiot

[DaculaWeather]

Looks like the line that's currently in MS/AL is gathering a little more steam, I just hope it holds together before the sun goes down. There's a nice clear slot bringing the temps up a little right now, I'm at 68 and rising about 3 degrees/hr but the dp is still in the 50's.

[burgertime]

Very true.... although here in CLT we were didn't really get to take advantage of the great setup last year. Places just west, north, and southwest cleaned up while we seemed to be just a hair outside all winter. We did get some snow but nothing to write home about like a lot of places.

You may be right about T-giving being cold last year. It was a year ago so my memory may not be correct.

Don't remind me . What a disaster that was. We had that 3 inches of snow with an inch and a half of sleet which packed the snow down to about two inches. Then we had the epic day of snow all freaking day just to melt on impact. I think the only descent snow we got I was in Vegas.