tim123

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Still sitting on sleet. Social media reports of snow all around me but I honestly think they must be mistaking sleet for snow. 

No its definitely snow. I was just in penfield heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain

Let me tell you what. Some of the worst driving of winter right now.

Very heavy snow sleet freezing rain in penfield 

Snow windy in roc

Will be a skating rink come morning

Cats. Lol

Arws are counting sleet?

Odd tombo. Cause I see this. 

06z euro?

We can throttle the highs back 10 degrees for thursday

Is it just me or did they change the colors on these maps to make it look warmer than it is.

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Almost every system this winter has been SO tilted. The ridge ahead over the Atlantic buckles up so much. That's been the most frustrating part. Can't get a flatter track. Then, a huge trough suppresses. Then, the ridge.

Sure has been a screw zone the way pattern has been. 

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Fat lady singing! 

No. Just a German model

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

rgem a good bit more amped, still on colder side, but would think ggem comes in nw of 0z

Looks like 06z euro

Lake erie looks like its 80 percent ice now.

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Does it look wonky? Lol

Take the farthest nw solution and it follows it and then some. Always plays catch up.

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM is north

Nam at 84 hours why do we even look at that.

The diffrence between gfs and euro cmc is like 200 miles

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. 

Interesting considering these seem to waffle more than gfs. But maybe that just means gfs is stubborn when it gets a idea and corrected last min

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

That's what I was thinking. Thanks for confirming. Very similar setup to Groundhog's day.

When the ratios where 4 to 1 lmao. 

Operational 06z euro looks like rain to snow. Only goes to hour 90

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Where do you see the 6z CMC?

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

06z cmc holds with snow idea.

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’d expect one or the other camp to fall in line today. It’s a tough call but I’m a fan of ICON and it’s hard to bet against GFS in this range. But it could go either way. Tim might be right, Rain followed by a couple/ few inches. 

You get some lake snow overnight. Looks like I picked up a inch or so.

Ggem and Rgem nailed last storm. Call me crazy but I think gfs is a bit over amped. Best bet is rain to snow a couple few inches.