Jump to content

NorthArlington101

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,979

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I’m exhausted and probably about to quit for the night but it looks a bit like a hook to me, going back a couple scans looks like it’s trying to develop.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been watching it! First T&L of the year.
  3. NorthArlington101
    I don’t see anything in Lexington personally. The whole area sucks radar coverage wise. CHO needs to have a dual-pol radar.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Due north of Pamplin City looked interesting for a frame or two.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Could probably justify warning the other circulation SW of New Windsor as well.
  6. NorthArlington101
    There goes the TW.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Rotation south of New Windsor has looked interesting for a little while.
  8. NorthArlington101
    This looks fairly legit.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Not bad.
  10. NorthArlington101
    TW'd. Getting good at picking out rotation
  11. NorthArlington101
    Storm S of Stanardsville trying to rotate again.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Both have some beautiful hooks but haven't been able to put it together for whatever reason. TW for storm N of Roanoke, that's downstream of me again. Maybe I can hear some thunder this time.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Not sure why both parts of the tweet didn't send -- here ya go
  14. NorthArlington101
  15. NorthArlington101
    Storm out of RIC:
  16. NorthArlington101
    TW just outside of CHO left to expire. While I'm listing storms to watch, the one outside Lake Monticello has space to work and some low-level rotation. RIC storm has looked better, still surprised it didn't get warned.
  17. NorthArlington101
    that one is looking hooky now too... it's probably gonna get TW'd storm W of Middleburg is also worth watching
  18. NorthArlington101
    Definitely some rotation in that storm, looks like it wants to wrap up on the S end a bit. edit: there's the TOR warn
  19. NorthArlington101
    Storm by Richmond, VA gonna need a TW.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Looks like a hook south of Crozet... really too bad radar coverage sucks down here. Not sure why there is all this empty space below my post, really annoying.
  21. NorthArlington101
    CHO under a STW, TW very close by. First STW I’ve had on-Grounds.
  22. NorthArlington101
    4 active warnings in Virginia now. Not bad.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Tornado warning for just west of Amherst, on route to CHO eventually. Not in a a great radar coverage area.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Just outside of CHO tonight.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Lots of the area covered in the Day 7 SPC outlook, 15%, looks like sloppy thirds from another eastern Plains/Dixie outbreak next week. ```...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict progression of a highly amplified upper trough across the U.S. through the Day 4-8 period. While differences are rather substantial with respect to the initial strength of this trough -- and thus its associated surface reflection -- as it exits the Rockies and moves into the Plains Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17), evolution/progression of the upper system thereafter is reasonably similar as it traverses the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period. Given the amplitude of the trough, and accompanying/well-developed surface system, a favorably strong wind field will accompany the progression of this system, along with ample northward advection of Gulf moisture. As such, it appears that a kinematic and thermodynamic environment supportive of severe storms (and all modes of severe weather) will exist each day -- and therefore 15% risk areas are being added. Though model differences continue to cast some uncertainty as to location of the daily risk, as well as the magnitude, it appears that any risk Day 4 (Tuesday 4-16) will be limited. Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17) however, as the upper trough advances more fully into the central U.S., risk for severe weather is evident from roughly the Mid-Missouri Valley south across eastern portions of the Plains, and eastward to roughly the Mississippi Valley. Day 6 (Thursday 4-18), the risk should extend from roughly the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, and as far north as the Midwest states. Day 7 (Friday 4-19), risk should exist primarily east of the mountains. Finally, by Day 8 (Saturday 4-20), the front will likely be advancing offshore, and thus diminished potential is apparent. ..Goss.. 04/13/2019```
×
×
  • Create New...