NorthArlington101

Lots of the area covered in the Day 7 SPC outlook, 15%, looks like sloppy thirds from another eastern Plains/Dixie outbreak next week. ```...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict progression of a highly amplified upper trough across the U.S. through the Day 4-8 period. While differences are rather substantial with respect to the initial strength of this trough -- and thus its associated surface reflection -- as it exits the Rockies and moves into the Plains Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17), evolution/progression of the upper system thereafter is reasonably similar as it traverses the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period. Given the amplitude of the trough, and accompanying/well-developed surface system, a favorably strong wind field will accompany the progression of this system, along with ample northward advection of Gulf moisture. As such, it appears that a kinematic and thermodynamic environment supportive of severe storms (and all modes of severe weather) will exist each day -- and therefore 15% risk areas are being added. Though model differences continue to cast some uncertainty as to location of the daily risk, as well as the magnitude, it appears that any risk Day 4 (Tuesday 4-16) will be limited. Day 5 (Wednesday 4-17) however, as the upper trough advances more fully into the central U.S., risk for severe weather is evident from roughly the Mid-Missouri Valley south across eastern portions of the Plains, and eastward to roughly the Mississippi Valley. Day 6 (Thursday 4-18), the risk should extend from roughly the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, and as far north as the Midwest states. Day 7 (Friday 4-19), risk should exist primarily east of the mountains. Finally, by Day 8 (Saturday 4-20), the front will likely be advancing offshore, and thus diminished potential is apparent. ..Goss.. 04/13/2019```

Well celebrations are an all day event. More concerned about standing outside the stadium between 6:00-8:00 to get in the building. Camping outside is less fun in the rain.

No thank you 3k. When UVA wins the championship we need to be able to be outside.

HRRR doesn't look particularly impressive. Wouldn't shock me to see a spinner form around/over the Bay though.

Family in Arlington is reporting sleet, so I can at least record two traces for the day.

It was sleeting earlier when the rates actually got good in CHO. Maybe a good sign for people further NW

Temp dipped down to 36, saw a rain/snow report 2 miles to my NE so I stuck my head outside. Can confirm that when rates pick up it rains harder.

Welp, 40 and rain in CHO. See you all next time.

I’m on vacation so it will probably verify

It’s close. DC never rains verbatim. Couple select panels:

For what little it is worth the long range HRRR has the mix line further south than any other guidance. I’m hugging it.

for real, I love TTT but these maps are horrible. NAM maps had me getting 6” of snow/sleet last night. Wanna guess what I got? Should focus on the 850 temp improvements and just call that a win.

00z HDRPS smokes DC. 4”+ and counting. I’d give my left pinky for 50+ miles more south.

The difference between 66hrs at 12z and 54hrs at 0z. CHO almost in the game.

EURO looks like a slight step back just going off P-Type maps.

Notable steps in the right direction though, IMO. I'll be curious to see the EPS in the morning.

Light snow in western parts of the forum at 66.

EURO looks more south through 54.

It's actually a great run for CHO... which is probably a warning this run is off. It's 33/34 the whole time and verbatim we'd ride the R/S line hard. One more south shift would be fantastic.

GFS is stronger with the coastal that develops out of tomorrow’s system. If I understand correctly that’s good news for this threat.

Tree branches are a little icy, FWIW. Mostly a flood though.

I'm stunned there is no FFW. It's raining almost harder than it has been the whole time I've been in Charlottesville, and with the snow there is the addition of runoff issues. 32 and raining cats and dogs. 50+ dbz returns to my W and S.