BoulderWX

I'm riding the northern edge in Morristown so could see 1 or 4 inches just as easily depending how far north this goes; hoping for at least 2" to cover everything up - im not greedy

1-3 seems like a good call this AM;

Looks very reasonable - the rest is just noise!

Its another 2-4" depiction; people shouldn't fret over each run of each model; this is a 1-3 or 2-4 event for most - just sit back and enjoy a little holiday snow

nor do I -- just sharing what it showed. I do think 1-3" is on the table for many

Ignore; well known troll who is post limited. NAM is 3-5 region wide FWIW

NAM would be 9-12 hours of light to moderate snow verbatim... I'd take that and run

thought it would start out as some snow but a mostly rain mix right now

Higher mean for my family in Chapel Hill than me lol

Why are we talking about storms that disappeared and then came back. Obviously we know that can happen. Every storm is unique. Just as we can see things turn more positive in upcoming runs, it’s equally likely that things stay the same or trend worse. No amount of talking about past storms changed that.

This a possibility with the stronger confluence. Suppression has always been on the table.

Oooph. Looks different on pivotal. Not a great look.

It didn’t go great from 114 but it’s within. The envelope of solutions.

Better LP pressure at 108 just not reflected on the precip shield. Track more important so let’s see where it goes from here

30 w/ light/moderate wet snow

*for entertainment purposes for those around MMU* Saturday - 12Z Suite @ *10:1 ratios* - MMU - net gain or loss from 00z Friday runs - CMC: 5” (- 7.9”) - GFS: 5” (+ 5”) - EURO: 4” (-13”) - ICON: 18.3” (+ 18.1”) - UKIE: 18” (+ 11.6”) Blend Of Models = 10” Based on this suite alone, two clear and tightly clustered camps around 5 and 18 lol

Temporarily but even with that and it being furthest west of the guidance, the entire forum sees over a foot @10:1 - that was a beautiful run, and being inland I’m biased towards it but I always shoot towards the middle and don’t think it will be that far west. This is fun!

UKIE Looking great forum wide through 123. Next few frames will be telling. edit: looks like a stall between 129 and 132. Will be an epic run verbatim

I only have it to 42 - what site are you using. I’m using pivotal at 10:1 for my tracker I started last night but would love to peak ahead lol

Still going to be a nice hit for the areas I keep highlighting. Just not it’s 00z run which is to be expected that there will be run to run variances.

CMC certainly won’t be its 00z hit. Looks flatter through 114.

Yeah, that would be tough lol. At this point just glad there continues to be a signal for a big storm

Not the full evolution, but the end result is very similar to what I was just saying. A good shot of a MECS storm forum wide with best snows being along the NJ coast, NYC and points East. should be a fun couple of days of tracking.

Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed (30+ forum wide).

I forget what storm it was, maybe BDB where I was too far west and got close to 10” while 20 miles east got at least double that. My *initial* feeling is similar to that where NYC and points east do best and this would also align if you take a compromise the current guidance. I think the entire forum has a shot at our biggest storm of the year and a good potential for a MECS for many, just need to see how it unfolds. We’re 5+ days out so things can/will obviously change, just some initial thoughts.