radarman

not enough yikes

glad you are ok

the first of the two cells that came along rt 202 was quite impressive and the SVR that was put on it was very much warranted from what I observed.  The TOR warned cell was rain wrapped but really quite calm by comparison as it passed by.

tornado warning for Conway incoming toward Amherst

Large wedge reported earlier in Cass Co, NE.  Hail LSRs to 2.75" and measured wind gusts to 88 in adjacent IA.

Substantial amount of instability building in SE Nebraska... HRRR goes wild.  SPC saying tornado watch coming shortly, even if wind may be the primary threat. 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I still use my Dad's old boxey Craftsman lawn tractor from the 80s. It still runs well, but those shiny yellow and green JD's are tempting when I walk by them in the box stores.

same here, looks like this one.  Have spent a few hours replacing parts on it this year and it's pretty satisfying to see it running again.  Simple machine really.

What a beastly little storm. 

21 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Well, that 4600 number was derived statistically by looking at a small sample and extrapolating...probably not hugely accurate, but def more in line with reality that the 65 or whatever were “officially” killed.  Pretty insane considering it was the US in 2017.  

Im guessing we will never know the “real” toll.   And you are so right that our civilization, or at least the US part, is lining up for some monster catastrophes.   Either a hurricane, or a Pacific coast volcanic deal, or an earthquake, or ...God help us...a Yellowstone caldera...

WaPo published this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/

They gave a lot more credence to the other 5 studies that estimated the death toll at ~1000.  Certainly horrific enough as it is.

thunderstorm complex held together better than expected this morning and dropped a fair amount of precip across the metroplex, particularly east of Dallas (Garland/Mesquite) where they're pushing 2-3".  Parts of Ft Worth did ok too, and along the I35E corridor. 

huge 4.25" hail in Comanche county, reflectivity levels nearly off the charts, and a TBSS.  Big time instability today.

storm complex held together and strengthened as it pushed through the east side of Dallas producing fairly strong/marginally severe gusts and lots of small hail.

Mesoscale Discussion 0516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

   Areas affected...North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251621Z - 251845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible as storms move south
   across the area today, but severe weather is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A complex of storms with southward-surging outflow is
   currently crossing the Red River into TX. These storms are not
   severe as of 16Z, but have produced 30-40 mph wind gusts. Some
   increase in intensity is possible this afternoon.

   The 12Z FWD sounding shows around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE when modified for
   current surface conditions. Although shear profiles are weak, storms
   are expected to forward-propagate and maintain and/or increase
   slightly. An isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, but
   severe coverage is not expected to warrant a watch at this time. In
   addition to wind, marginal hail is possible as well given cool
   temperatures aloft and substantial instability.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/25/2018

DFW sounding showed some pretty good lapse rates this morning

and 3km nam really ramps up the surface instability later on. Windfields are a bit of a mess, though strong aloft.  The storm complex in OK is through Ardmore at present and hasn't weakened too much just yet... If it can keep pushing past the Red River I think there's a decent shot SPC ups the metroplex to slight risk later on.  Forcing is pretty weak without that OFB...

Well the caterpillar invasion is on and it's raining in the woods again.  I fear our oaks and ironwoods, already looking sickly, cannot withstand year 3 of complete defoliation.  This may be the coup de grace.  

On 5/17/2018 at 3:02 PM, weatherwiz said:

Gotta watch Monday/Tuesday timeframe too. Potential may be just west of here but something to watch 

Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up.  Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day.

very solid CTG if little else up this way.

They went with a tornado watch

A SVR was just dropped on the cell headed toward Columbia County.  That narrow corridor extending to the WSW has been blossoming... CI must have partially eroded through there at least.

3 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Re: no PDS/High risk:

 

 

If you're looking for damage, cheer for 3/1/17 not 7/15/10

wow @ those wind probs

suns out here at UMass, plenty of time to destabilize

Will have to see if a rain cooled outflow boundary might kick out of the ongoing convection as it skirts probably just north of here. 

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm hanging out with this girl today and I told her about the elevated mixed-layer and how we're going to get nasty storms and she is down to go and watch them come in!!! 

keeper maybe

5/8/09 there was a tornado in Sunderland that picked up a tobacco barn and deposited it across the road.  It was embedded in a heavy rain event... definitely not your classic severe set up.

Much like 2/25/17 these type of events don't really count per the question that was asked... As far as moderate to strong instability events this early I can't remember too many.

There's also the freak EF1 on 2/25/17

big time squall at BDL ongoing