radarman

Sugarbush confirmed opening on the 10th today

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha it’s funny you mention this as Killington has been getting hammered in online and social circles for their measuring or lack thereof.  The other day when they reported 8” it was more than anyone and on the Live cams there was like grass showing everywhere and people who skied said there was like 3-4” in the woods up high lol.

Killington’s numbers have been starting to stand out but I’d be curious on Jen’s take there.  She skis it daily.  But at times they’ve been higher than Stowe and Jay in seasonal totals.  The unopened mountains like Sugarbush/Bolton/Smuggs probably miss some snowfall as it’s hard to get upper mountain reports.  We are lucky with a decent snow cam and I also get up a lot for early season snowfall to verify at the Stake and on hill.

I agree with everything you said.  Jay definitely gets the most and I try to explain to skiers who don’t believe it that on the most basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in New England, all else equal.  Jay maximizes orographic lift too.  And then when people are like “I don’t believe they would get 50-75” more than Stowe and Smuggs!”  I usually answer, but you accept that Stowe and Smuggs can at times get 50-75” more than Sugarbush/MRG?

IMO once averages sort themselves out long term, there’s a clear stepwise increase from SB/MRG to Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs... followed by another clear step up to Jay.

I do also fully believe Sugarbush should average a clear step up from Killington.  Just like Killington should be clearly more than Mt Snow.

Mostly agree but that last part I'm actually not totally sure about... Mt Snow often does better than KMart on coastals, and it's pretty rare that the R/S line hangs up between them. And for orographic snows I'm not sure the S Greens are notably different on average than Killington (are the C Greens a thing?).  The height of the mountain helps a bit, but the relative narrowness of the spine there may hurt some.  You are certainly the expert on upslope and I will defer.

+1 to Will for that post about 08 yesterday

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’s talking about his personal wx station.

you'd think I'd have caught that by the fact he called it "weather station"... been that kind of day

14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Weather station was caked with snow and slush. Now it is reading the winds at least. 

As long as your signal is not attenuated to extinction, the velocities are unaffected because those are derived from the phase not the power.

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sure I can think of a time I've seen it that dramatic during a winter storm. Most of the examples I can think of come from our radar training.

s band radome attenuation shouldn't be more than about 1dB and it did seem excessive... But yeah I don't have a better explanation and I don't believe the atmosphere just sh*t out that quickly

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The wedge of high ZDR is definitely all on the N/NNW side of the display.

Another thing that made it very obvious was that the various color contours in the imagery all collapsed inward simultaneously the same (similar) distances, indicative of a fixed power loss offset in the entire sector.

Just now, OceanStWx said:

A big part of our job is figuring out WTF is happening, and diagnosing it quickly enough to shit or get off the pot. 

nice catch.  As someone working with X band that kind of thing happens all the time and it certainly had a familiar look to it.  But one thing I noticed was that the returned power from the cell out on the ocean didn't appear to be changing very much... Could the wind be squeegee-ing away water on the east side, creating some kind of differential radome attenuation?  That'd be interesting.

WaWa opening tomorrow

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This radar definitely has a bit of 12/9/05 to it and a little bit of 1/12/11 to it.

That's kind of like when the 12th pick of the NBA draft is taken and the announcers describe him as similar to Kobe with a little Jordan

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That dark band has to be ripping. Some mix started here

FWIW I'm squarely under that dark band just west of the Quabbin and it's all rain at present, and not particularly heavy.

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just got off the phone with my buddy up at Berkshire East and he said all rain there right now.  I guess elevation not as much of a factor out this way.

Summit cam shows like C-1"

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I think western snow maps are going to bust.

No doubt... We were looking decent in the lead up this far east, but just totally choking on ORH's fumes right now.

back to rain here

Accums beginning here now at 540'

We're huffing exhaust from that band at present... Hardly even raining

7 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We’re getting the band back together!

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

29 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

 

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pound me town 

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ll take Savoy to Florida any day 

Yeah I was wondering if he was considering those honorary CNE

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like this was ran out of @40/70 Benchmark basement 

What's the "accurate" clown map showing, lollis to 4"?

seemed like more northern stream involvement from early on in the run...

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ughhhh where the hell is the 18z GFS? This past like year has been freaking awful with NCEP/NWS products. Horrific page loading issues, displaying previous maps, incorrect graphics, numerous issues with running models. HOW CAN THERE BE SO MANY ISSUES???? I can't stand technology...it's so great yet nothing but a piece of junk. then issues other places too...COD, had problems loading bufkit profiles from PSU...WTF IS GOING ON???????? FIX THINGS

I might be way off base here, but doesn't the 18z gfs usually not start rolling in til 430ish.  Maybe my sources are just slow? 

FWIW, the GFS has not been trending east and is definitely worthy of a watch for western SNE and adjacent CNE, ENY , etc.  The euro has been way west up to the last run.   And toss the mesos for this event... JMO

12 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

No update from Wildcat or Sunapee in a while which is ridiculous, Cannon says this weekend is doubtful, Loon and BW are pretty immune to wind holds. I would say the only options that are open will be good to go. I'd be eyeing Sunday River.

Hoping to break the ice here this weekend but just so much uncertainty with respect to the storm and operations, pretty hard to make a plan.  I'm thinking it'll be skins and the Taconics at this juncture.  Guess we'll see.

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like using the 3km once we are inside of 24h. Sometimes it catches a trend before that, but hard to trust it further out.

Yeah.  For complex, synoptic scale upper-air interactions at range I think the hi-res is often a net negative... Not inherently of course, mainly because sampling and parameterization errors can propagate more easily.   Don't get me wrong, I love the nammy as much as anyone, but this would not be the type of event I'd give it too much weight, at least not yet.

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we might be able to eek out a bottom end advy event based on those synoptic charts here