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radarman

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    The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

    in New England

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

    SHHHHH!!! ;) but yes, that whole ridge from MRG to Lincoln Peak holds so many goodies when the pack is deep, and some even when it isn't!

    The woods skiers left of Black diamond holds literally like 1-2 lines, but it's frickin chest deep in there...  And the other side ain't bad either ;)

    Nothing whatsoever against LP, but I have a special fondness for the Ellen summit.  I think it's overlooked sometimes.

    • Like 1

    The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

    in New England

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

    I think the issue here, at least in part, lies with something I brought up in my post above.  The more I think about, the more I wonder how much (i.e. what percentage of annual snowfall) big coastal storms actually play into the snowfall numbers for the Vermont ski areas.  This is where it would be good to bring in some of the meteorologists who know seasonal averages for those types of storms.  I’m wondering if the past decade’s run of (more frequent?) big coastal storms has warped our perspective on how often they really occur.  It takes a lot of things to line up just right to get one of those big coastal systems, and even more to get one that significantly affects a certain area, so is the real average on those more than once or twice a season?  Even if a spot gets two solid hits from coastal storms a season, and each one is a healthy two feet of snow, that’s still a pretty minor component of the annual snowfall, even for a place with an annual snowfall average like Mount Snow.  Those big storms get the attention, so perhaps why they’re thought to have such an impact?  It’s not as if heading southward along the spine of the Greens we find that the big snowfall numbers up north experience some sort of dip in the central areas, and then rise again as one gets into the southern area where potential coastal systems have greater effects; the numbers just continue to drop as one heads south.  If the “coastal” storm track doesn’t really contribute much to the overall annual snowfall averages, there might not really be any sort of in between area.

    Well, even here we get a pretty substantial percentage of our snow nickel and diming from northern stream shortwaves and on the front side of cutters/SWFEs... ie. not pure coastals.    I'd be inclined to suppose that Killington incrementally scores with the CAD events based on latitude, but we know also that the west side of the mountains are prone to torching and they're tickling that edge pretty good, whereas Mt Snow has some buffer.   At any rate, I don't entirely mean big nor'easter type events, which as you say likely don't contribute hugely on a percentage basis, but also your standard fare March clipper that blows up under LI, quick hitter anafrontal waves, waves on cold fronts hung up offshore, etc.  Basically everything synoptic with the Atlantic as the primary moisture source.

    The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

    in New England

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

    Jay Peak (355″)
    Burke (217″)
    Smuggler’s Notch (320″)
    Stowe (333″)
    Bolton Valley (312″)
    Mad River Glen (228″)
    Sugarbush (250″)
    Middlebury (200″)
    Pico (250″)
    Killington (250″)
    Okemo (200″)
    Bromley (145″)
    Magic Mountain (145″)
    Stratton (180″)
    Mount Snow (158″)

    Nice post as usual.  If some objective truth were available I'd be shocked if KMart gets 100 more inches than Mt Snow.  I mean when folks talk about Killington posting 8" with bare grass showing, that's a non-negligible amount of inflation.   Or maybe as you said the southern areas just don't care as much or aren't clearing their boards every hour.  Over the course of a few seasons I'd be interested to identify all these events where Killington is cleaning up and Mt Snow isn't, to the tune of 90 something inches annually, which is the difference basically between MBY and YBY. 

    The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

    in New England

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

    I mean I still think there is a notion of north to south decrease in upslope snow, it may just be a question of diminishing difference as you head south. Strictly anecdotally speaking, if Jay is the high water mark in orographic snows, I imagine Stowe/Smuggs get 80-90% of that, Sugarbush/MRG 45-55%, Killington 25% and areas south of there roughly 15-20% of Jay's total. Of course this is broad brushed and can differ season by season and I'm also sure that among the So VT resorts, distance from the spine plays a part but generally speaking this is always how I've thought of it/observed. 

    Again, we have plenty of experts on this here, and you may well be one of them... so take with a grain of salt... but I've always felt that where Jay cleans up is on the lingering N/NE flow from bombing coastals in N Brunswick, etc., throwing back moisture across SE QC and the extended St Lawrence valley and they being the first beneficiary of orography.  Whereas the more typical W/NW flow is fairly evenly distributed, perhaps with Mansfield even outdoing them.  And SB/MRG can occasionally score big on streamers especially, but for most upslope events they certainly average less than those others further north.  

    Even if I grant that Killington may do better than further S on westerly flow just purely based on relief, I've always kind of considered them between typical storm track paradigms, whereby they're a little too far removed from clippers and coastals that get the Berks and S Greens, and don't benefit from the seemingly daily snows that the big boys get.   With temps closer to the former and moisture closer to the latter. 

    • Like 2

    The 2020-2021 Ski season thread

    in New England

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    Ha it’s funny you mention this as Killington has been getting hammered in online and social circles for their measuring or lack thereof.  The other day when they reported 8” it was more than anyone and on the Live cams there was like grass showing everywhere and people who skied said there was like 3-4” in the woods up high lol.

    Killington’s numbers have been starting to stand out but I’d be curious on Jen’s take there.  She skis it daily.  But at times they’ve been higher than Stowe and Jay in seasonal totals.  The unopened mountains like Sugarbush/Bolton/Smuggs probably miss some snowfall as it’s hard to get upper mountain reports.  We are lucky with a decent snow cam and I also get up a lot for early season snowfall to verify at the Stake and on hill.

    I agree with everything you said.  Jay definitely gets the most and I try to explain to skiers who don’t believe it that on the most basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in New England, all else equal.  Jay maximizes orographic lift too.  And then when people are like “I don’t believe they would get 50-75” more than Stowe and Smuggs!”  I usually answer, but you accept that Stowe and Smuggs can at times get 50-75” more than Sugarbush/MRG?

    IMO once averages sort themselves out long term, there’s a clear stepwise increase from SB/MRG to Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs... followed by another clear step up to Jay.

    I do also fully believe Sugarbush should average a clear step up from Killington.  Just like Killington should be clearly more than Mt Snow.

    Mostly agree but that last part I'm actually not totally sure about... Mt Snow often does better than KMart on coastals, and it's pretty rare that the R/S line hangs up between them. And for orographic snows I'm not sure the S Greens are notably different on average than Killington (are the C Greens a thing?).  The height of the mountain helps a bit, but the relative narrowness of the spine there may hurt some.  You are certainly the expert on upslope and I will defer.

    December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

    I'm not sure I can think of a time I've seen it that dramatic during a winter storm. Most of the examples I can think of come from our radar training.

    s band radome attenuation shouldn't be more than about 1dB and it did seem excessive... But yeah I don't have a better explanation and I don't believe the atmosphere just sh*t out that quickly

    December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, OceanStWx said:

    A big part of our job is figuring out WTF is happening, and diagnosing it quickly enough to shit or get off the pot. :lol:

    nice catch.  As someone working with X band that kind of thing happens all the time and it certainly had a familiar look to it.  But one thing I noticed was that the returned power from the cell out on the ocean didn't appear to be changing very much... Could the wind be squeegee-ing away water on the east side, creating some kind of differential radome attenuation?  That'd be interesting.

    • Like 2
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