radarman

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Very Jelly of my hometown just SW of Albany... 18z GFS with a sick panel for that band from BGM-ALB-RT 2 in MA.

Hippy gets crushed.

 

Beast-ly

Fat skis

Poor kids might not even get a snow day out of it, they'll have to cheer for damaging ice storms now...  talk about externalities

I'm a little skeptical about the ability of models to accurately depict subsidence holes, especially small ones.  This will be a good test.  My feeling is that this will be by and large a people pleaser in SNE... Perhaps not as evenly distributed as say, the Superbowl 2015 storm, but without the huge sucking sounds we sometimes get, like say, last storm.

March '13, I had almost 8" at 740' living on the hilltop in the valley, and at 300' was a slushy coating.

Interesting calling for more on Old Silver Beach than in GC.  But they probably figure dragons won't call in totals anyway.

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta use it to figure out what VT ski area gets the most snow.  Think you gotta ride with Mt Snow but I was thinking the banding on NAM might have been north of that even.

If you're looking to take a road trip, Magic is planning to open on Thurs. 

Whereas the east flow could be problematic for some in this area (hi!) due to terrain downsloping, I'll be pretty surprised if mid level subsidence is a major factor. 

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm not seeing anything on any model indicating widespread amounts higher than maybe 15" for the most aggressive runs

Agree, certainly not calling for #1 all time at BOS (at the time) but that was another weak ass lp with a big high to the north.  I know the setups aren't precisely the same, but saying totals are limited to 8-12" just because it's high 990s instead of mid 980s raised an eyebrow for me. 

2 minutes ago, Cmass495 said:

A POTENTIAL RED FLAG AGAINST SOME OF THE EYE-POPPING TOTALS SHOWN BY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEPENING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE HIGH 990S OR LOW
1000S, WHICH INDICATES A LACK OF DEEPENING OR CYCLOGENESIS REQUIRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE STAYING POWER AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TOTALS MUCH HIGHER THAN A FOOT AT THIS TIME.

Tell that to PDII

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice SE shift Reggae 

Nice to have some buffer for the shuffle

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

3km NAM Kuchie 

Seems reasonable.

So much pow, so little time

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That snow hole over me isn't sitting well with me

bullseye!!

On 12/14/2020 at 1:11 AM, Professional Lurker said:

Sweet! No doubt we've crossed paths.

I'll be bumping chairs there every Thursday.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

How bout this Thursday? 

couldn't possibly care less about central mass holes on guidance.  Boxing day had us at 18" or something and we got a slantsticked 3".  The fact the surface LP is relatively weak here works to our advantage IMO.  We don't need giant banded nukes pushing the 970s, winds shredding the dendrites to pieces.   At any rate, it's ski season.  Berkshire East was on the verge of nil 36hrs ago, now looking like an opening day powder fest.

The areal averaged soundings on TT are a pretty nice tool.  I note that the 3km nam and the gfs are pretty similar off the coast... around hr 54 the GFS really starts racing convection ENE off like VA beach....  If anything convective parameters for the nammy are a little better in that region (approaching 200 j/kg SBCAPE, mid 60s/low 60s, a ton of helicity)  and yet it's not nearly as aggressive as the GFS in actually generating ^(organized) thunderstorms.  

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is, which is why I was sort of satisfied with the low finally off ACY unlike other runs.

yes.  It was substantially deeper there than in previous runs. 

The GFS is really aggressive with the convection offshore. 

I could pass on gasping for air while ORH gets destroyed again thanks Reggie

2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Night 1 was a WSW and we grabbed ~8", second night 3-4" forecasted and we got 16-18".

He may have done better in part one up there.

Snowing decently.  Very small flakes.

Gearing up in the car is the fooking worst, especially once it's a spring mud bog.  That's what the muckers are for.  Clop clop clop clop clop

Berkshire East just announced opening on Thurs 12/17

Berkshire East has been hammering away and I saw cat tracks on the webcam tonignt.  Wonder if Pro Lurker has heard anything about opening?

Reminds a little of 12/1/19 how that thing gets squeezed underneath. 

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

 

I’m an idiot.  It was Feb ‘01.  Dendrite was probably in that same mesoband I remember coming through eastern NY state SE of ALB.  It was that same winter, I just didn’t flip the calendar year in my post .

Either way... The last week of January 2000 featured 2 sizable storms for the Capital region.  They were probably pushing 2+ feet OTG. Maybe more in places.