MillvilleWx

Well, I think this L from the Orioles will be the proverbial nail in the coffin for the season. I don't see how they come back from this one. They might get swept in back-to-back series and fall 9 games under .500 after this one with the Dodgers. They needed to win tonight and had a chance and blew it.

You give me that hemispheric look and I'll take my chances

I hope you have backup plans to sit at Obrycki's

Saw this way too late, but got some excellent responses below. Nothing to add to what has already be hashed out. Environmental conditions thermodynamically were solid for the setup, but we were lacking in shear within the mid and upper levels to sustain prominent mesocyclones to really pack the punch needed. I was skeptical of the risk posed by SPC yesterday. I genuinely think they need to spend a year out here to experience how much we suck at severe so they can think twice. After living in West Texas for 5 years, there's not much that excites me here anymore, severe-wise. If I am excited, you should be too as my standards have been raised after being spoiled for years in the Southern High Plains.

I freaking laugh snorted at this this morning

Great to hear the news, @Ian!! Will be supporting anyway I can and would love to chat in person sometime. Feel free to stop by more!

It's quite impressive to see this signature in our neck of the woods. That's some Grade-A futility right there. Ooof

My Dad and I were LIVID!! Absolute bull on that non-call. Just run to the outfield while we’re at it. Absolutely ridiculous. And then the umpire was a little ***** and wouldn’t look at Baz when he was leaving the game. Inexcusable

US Drought Monitor is a contracted service with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with decades of AG experience. The composite for the area has actually shown improvement from week to week after the last period of rainfall leading to a downgrade in category from Extreme to Severe at a higher prevalence. The top soil layer is only part of the equation and it takes more than 5-7" of rain to combat a persistent deep layer soil moisture pitfall. It took a step in the right direction this go around compared to what has been occurring. I can tell you don't like government bodies by this response and I for one have issues with some government entities as well because I want to hold governments at all levels to a higher standard, however the work done from top to bottom in this industry is critical in maintaining a positive report with the AG industry which spans far and wide across the U.S. This group is consistently praised by the decision-makers at large and anecdotal evidence from a small part of a bigger picture does not represent the entire story. We can agree to disagree, but I thought the map made sense from all the data I have parsed, which I do on the daily while I'm on the job.

Drivers of primary patterns take time to manifest because they become stable and promote large scale changes across the globe. The teleconnections are a case of drivers, but some last longer than others, so temporal variance is lower in more stable regimes. ENSO takes time to promote atmospheric coupling, so we usually see lags that can last months before the regime takes a greater hold on the overall global pattern. You also have your seasonal variances in the mix too, especially this time of year where the tropics begin activating with a series of waves and focus of trade wind flow stemming from hemispheric drivers like the development of the Bermuda High and Eastern Pacific ridging that takes shape as we see increasing heat flux across the Desert Southwest with a Monsoonal trough materialize due to topographic schemes coupling with intense continental heating. All of this to say; it takes time and pattern shifts also yield different results pending other variables that can be found during intra-seasonal transition and fluctuations within other teleconnections globally. Persistence usually wins out in the long term, but one stable pattern eventually does give way after a while when in the right scenario. This time, it will with ENSO’s transition to more El Niño composites, so it will only be a matter of time before the pivot. Right now, it’s not trending significantly in that direction the next few weeks, but you might start seeing signs of subtle shifts in the coming 2-4 weeks. I think a full hemispheric deviation won’t occur until later in the summer or fall. Just my 2cents.

Persistent NW flow with breaks of southeast ridging are not a good recipe for rain in these parts. The NW flow is the biggest culprit. It's why we've had these incredible spells of nice weather this time of year, but it's a detriment to rain chances due to increased dry air aloft and relevant down sloping potential when winds shift westerly. Need more persistent southwest flow with moisture advection. Haven't gotten into that yet.

We have the talent, but can we do this for a long period? I still have my doubts, but you never know. We can only hope!

Imagine if it was all snow

And then in game 2, everyone sucks again and we flounder the entire game. Team is terrible

Got nailed pretty good on my drive home from the night shift overnight. We needed that dousing down in our neck of the woods. Was a nice sight. Could use a few more of those!