MillvilleWx

Surprisingly only 37 mph

College Park has fallen almost 20F in 10 minutes....

Front through College Park mesonet. Dropped 7F in 4 minutes

Yes

Popeyes with the wife is ELITE!!

I think the thread was fine. It wasn’t until last night where things started to rapidly deteriorate for the setup with all the discrete crap over the area prior to the fropa. I mentioned last night that one of the keys to this setup was a a limited cap and better solar isolation was necessary in order to get the better thermodynamic posture that could entice better convective magnitudes. We often see these precursor shortwaves ride ahead of the mean trough and overturn the environment to a point it’s hard to recover. The issue with the decision making processes is they have to be made well ahead of time to make sure it logistically goes well. School delays, cancelations, early-dismissals need to be known well in advance. Well, it wasn’t until we started to see the, “Whites of its eyes”, before we could see the failure on the table. Decision was made, so if it fails, you have to live with the decision. I think the one decision that blew my mind was the last second one by OPM for, “Everyone out by 2PM”….That made no sense considering what was unfolding. Not my decision, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, including myself. Rest assured, this will give meteorologists in the area another black eye I’m sure which is just dandy. I fear the day something truly nasty does happen severe wise and there will be public distrust from, “Boy who cried wolf” syndrome. I didn’t agree with the MDT from SPC up this way for my own personal reasons looking at guidance, but most of the ingredients were there for an enhanced risk. We fell one true ingredient short of that threat, so it ended up being more of a SLGT risk with tonight’s wind threat still to come. Off my soap box and time to get ready for night 5/7. Will be watching the fropa as that will be the main show.

Idk what OPM was thinking looking at radar and deciding that one.

Keep an eye on the cap (CIN) by the afternoon. If we can get relatively good solar insolation beyond the first batch of convection, we'll be under the gun for the main line as it migrates eastward. Forcing will be excellent, so even if we don't have the most perfect conditions near the surface, we can still get hit decently.

For these parts, a pretty good severe setup. I lived in Midland, TX for 5 years, so this is relatively ho-hum. Wake me up where there are 60k ft topped super cells with baseball+ sized hail and naders

I obviously think the probability is low for a high end snow, but I’m still keeping my eye on that period. It’ll be the last one for this area until next season. It’s intriguing to say the least.

That’s not true. This subforum is amazing at wind, heat, CAD, and failure

Was mentioning that last night to my colleague on the winter desk. Basically anything north of GB up into the U.P is going get clocked. I’d love to post up in Iron Mountain, MI right on the WI/MI border. Should see 2-3’ there. Marquette area and the Huron Mtns will probably see 3-5’ with the storm and additional LES. Insane storm for up there

I work at WPC, so I don't have any internal holdings with LWX. I do know multiple mets at the office though!

Historic actually. They will eclipse or come very close to some 24hr monthly records, as well as breaking some multi-day snowfall accumulations across portions of WI.

Truly incredible event. I'll remember this winter for a long time.