MillvilleWx

Upper 50s near Mayo, upper 60s in my neighborhood, and mid 70s about 5 miles west of my neighborhood. Checks out lol

The overnight Met at Sterling mucked up the Wx grids as they did not include the mention of thunder anywhere in the CWA despite the AFD. That's very confusing and I'm not sure what happened there. An oversight. There is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, no question and should be updated with the afternoon package, if I had to guess.

Linderbaum, Kohlar, Likely, and Stout were as good as gone with those contracts. Insane money for the first two. We apparently offered 4/88 for Linderbaum and he got 3/81…..No thanks. That’s insane for a C

I loved the burger. Best one they’ve ever had. That said, it’s McDonald’s, so the bar is low lol 73° in Perry Hall area. Little humid out today. Better get used to it I guess

House at 16’ was probably around 0.25” of snow with light snow when I left. Crofton area looks like at least 0.5”. Really pretty out

Thanks for the list of locations!! Great spots that will help fill more of the gaps that need coverage. And LOL!! The fight is on!! I’ll send you both a PM with my phone number so we can communicate and drum something up. There’s more in the sub I want to meet too.

Sweet!! Love it. Where are they going to be located, if I may ask? Also, gotta find a time to meet for lunch one day and chat meteorology and learn more about the Mesonet program. I was actually shadowed by a student at UMD this past Friday that knows you. She was incredibly bright and has interest in WPC. Small world!!

Took some time away from models after a crazy 7 day stretch at the winter desk. Just from a glance, I haven’t been too enthused. Still a shot at some snow, but max potential is probably 2-4”. Need something with more umph this time of year to really get anything appreciable. Judging by the ensembles after this one, I’m gearing up for spring mode. Baseball is on the horizon and I’m ready to tackle some outdoor walks, hiking, and meals outside. I’ll always welcome some snow though, so if it happens, I’ll accept.

Our products have deadlines, so we can’t adjust the overnight forecast with the 06z guidance. If things remain like they are, it’ll be reflected in the next update.

DOAH!! Wow, I feel dumb lol. Noted

Haven’t looked too much as I’m taking some much needed R&R from weather after that stretch. I’d lean no right now at a quick glance.

Bringing this over from another spot so it has more visibility. Wanted to shed a little light on something interesting about this last storm. As for obs, currently 40/25°

We did some reanalysis of the GFSv16 (Current model iteration) and GFSv17 (Newer GFS that will replace the current version) and found the current GFS actually did a phenomenal job at SLP placement for majority of its runs and absolutely smoked the CMC and ECMWF overall. However, it did have a 48 hr window where the SLP depiction was about 50-75 miles too far west and that caused a lot of QPF negative feedback on the western periphery of the main field. It handled a lot of other areas correctly and outperformed the EC and CMC still on QPF as those models were way too light on QPF. Overall, it was a great job by the GFS, but as is always the case, the result is usually a blend of models and not just one individual deterministic. The NBM QPF was skewed by some overly zealous members, mainly some CAMs that will actually not be there for the next version of the NBM (NBM5.0). We are working with MDL (Model Diagnostics Lab) to generate these analyses to improve upon what we have and go forward. Overall forecast ended up being amazing for the high impacted areas and average at best for those on the edges. With a storm like this, every mile can make a big difference in appreciable impacts.

Incredible seeing the totals out of RI and SE Mass with this one. I was on the winter desk the entire storm at WPC and the forecasts I generated prior to the storm were consistently 30+ inches across that area. My highest forecast point was 34.2” and that even got beat. Incredible storm up there. Congrats to all who cashed big time. One for the record books and one for the memory bank. I’ll always remember my chase to Waltham in Feb 2013. Still one of the greatest storms I’ve ever witnessed and probably the second best pure blizzard I’ve ever seen (Feb 9-10, 2010 back home in Baltimore). Good luck in the dig up there and enjoy the rest of this winter!

Plan is in spring I believe. I’ll have to double check, but I know it’ll be around prior to tropical season, so this is the last winter for V4.3. Next winter will be V5.0 or V5.1, so I’m looking forward to that on the desk. Definitely performing better than the current NBM operational. We see it in a lot of the verification.