MillvilleWx

The theme to these “warm ups” at range has been to mute them or completely reverse course since August. We saw this so many times over the last half of 2025, and I imagine you’ll see this continue. I wasn’t worried about any extended warm up because of this premise. We’ll see a brief period of above normal before returning closer to normal and below normal at times. Timing waves and getting that prolonged SWFE look is what can be the ticket to getting frozen around here considering the nature of things. A few coastals will certainly be plausible by end of winter as well as wavelengths shorten into February. It’s always tricky around here, but if the North Atlantic cooperates, that increases our favor. I would not be sweating anything beyond D7 at this point. History is showing it will change and discrete threats could pop up inside 7 days with this type of volatility in NWP.

1/1: 0.1" Season Total: 3.3"

Damn. What a classic look to score around here in January. We actually do decent with well-defined SWFE looks like this. I dig it

Got woken up to the squalls moving through early this morning. Absolutely smoked. Shook the house. The snow coated everything in an inch of its life. A great start to 2026 imo. Kudos to the hi-res that were on this potential from 36-48 hrs out. This was a strong axis of PVA coupled with impressive PBL dynamics. One thing I learned many years ago with talking to Bernie Rayno at the AMS Conference in Phoenix in 2015, while drinking and nerding out over winter weather….fresh injections of Arctic air tend to bring fresh coatings of white in their paths. This was no different. Happy to see all the cool reports and for some of these pics out of Western MD depicting a winter wonderland @nj2va Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring home a good winter after a solid start for most.

We know.......

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. I didn't see anything that screamed shut the blinds. If anything, it showed how you might want to grab some extra sidewalk/drive way salt. Yeesh

Going to be to the east-southeast of Adams Center. That area should get smashed with 3-6'. You and @katabaticbe safe

Those top analogs for both periods are absolutely insane. What a list. Cautiously optimistic for this potential pattern.

This is what I mentioned to my dad. Our pass blocking is absolutely awful, but our run blocking is solid enough to just play bully ball. And we have the best bully ball back in the league. The fact our coaching staff can’t see this while Lamar is in there is crazy. Also, we run way too few play action plays. That would open things up enough to get some chunk pass plays while running the football playing power. It’s all so easy, and yet….

Cautiously optimistic heading into January. The addition of potential southern stream is what you want to see for better potential in these parts. Blocking plus southern stream opens the door for more appreciable storms. Plenty to like about the latest ensembles, but it’s still D10-15, so don’t throw all the chips in just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on and track as we move into 2026.

Wind, heat, CAD and failure. It’s what we do best

Me thinks work will be busy in January…..

It always feels so good posting in here. It’s where I posted the most back in the day when I was at school. A lot of you here are always thought about when storms are impacting PA. I want a monster snowstorm so I can hop in here more often with a forecast!! In weather news, just changed to 70/30 snow/sleet. Decent sized flakes at that. Whitening up pretty good out there. 27/26

Make it 26°. Yeesh

Visiting family out by Montgomery Co and it’s plain nasty out. Sleet accums with freezing drizzle mixed in. Ice skating rink out there. Big batch approaching. Going to get loud and uglier out. Hope everyone stays warm and safe with this mess. 27/23°