MillvilleWx

I want Harbaugh and Monken charged with Domestic Terrorism, but I'll take a firing at this point.

Happy Anniversary Mappy!!

Honestly, went through a majority of Christmases in Midland in the low 50s with a chilly morning. Wasn't bad at all. Just don't want humidity unless snow is involved. Keep it dry and coolish and I'm fine.

0.92” at mi casa in Londontowne Got lucky with the way it all setup. I had the min running AAco when I did the national precip forecast yesterday. Ended up verifying a bit more west, but that idea of a min was there. This was more pronounced than what even I saw. Later runs kept getting sharper with it. Stinks for those that missed out

12/14: 2.1” Season Total: 3.2”

Snowing lightly just west of Rehoboth Beach, DE Tops of cars getting coated. Nice bands to the northwest that should pivot through. Hoping for 1-2” of the good stuff to make it festive around here. Glad many saw some snow to make it feel the season. Have a great day everyone!

Literally mentioned this to my Dad. I think it’s a little coastal enhancement over Sussex Co. These are nowcast features, but it’s interesting NAMNest and HRRR to some degree are showing it. I’ll be keeping an eye on it myself.

This is a really nice QPF distribution. Very apparent the banding is going to be impressive north of I-70 to the M/D and north. This would be a classic scenario for 5-9” for those areas. Ratio improvement through the early morning hrs. too. I would be excited if I was up that way.

Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!!

FYP

Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board.

North-central NJ

He ain’t wrong. I think 5-9” is in the cards for some from South Jersey back to NE MD. I’ll be at the shore for this one. I want to be able to drive around in it with my Dad and enjoy it, so I’m hoping for 1-2” that falls a light to moderate clip. Time to enjoy what falls! Good luck to all, and remember, all December snow is good snow

Actually, the model in the 500mb progs has been pretty decent overall, but it's not a normal dynamical model, so it doesn't follow the same exact principles and biases that other models do. It is basically one giant analog that uses historical variance and comes out with a progression that makes sense given recent patterns. The issue with the AIFS and AIFS ensemble is it doesn't account for those dynamical inputs that provide more detailed QPF distributions and more advanced ptype algorithms. I use it for a proxy in QPF (Spatial) and the mean 500mb pattern. The rest you have to use your meteorology and some real time context for what could transpire given the forecast pattern evolution. You have to be careful with the AI at long leads as the model will still be subject to variability due to temporal regulation and the idea of chaos increasing in a dynamical fluid (Atmosphere) as we move out in time.

I still trust the GFS over the Ravens pass rush….