poolz1

Today's forecast just made the waters muddier. Most of the time is spent in the COD if emerging at all....interesting that without influence from tropical forcing, models have a serviceable pattern. I think we are all just waiting for the inevitable return of the NPAC ridge... Then again, maybe we keep this ball rolling a find we have several decent pattern periods throughout winter.

CAPE's epo ridge going strong on the LR GEFS..... Time to go fill up on carbs!

Obviously, every hour into the future a model runs the less skill it has. 15 day ens runs are good for general ideas, imo. Just like snow means, and members...useful if used correctly. No doubt though, beyond day 10 is the general ballpark range...which is why I said I'd like to see it move forward in time....

End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty.. Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.

BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"

Hit 22 for a low but it was 32 when I left the house at 530 this morning.

Flurries, 34 with a stiff breeze. Definitely a wintry feel outside...

There we go! Getting very dark to the west..wind is kicking..

1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours.

Lol... Looks like I caught a shot of the first burst just south of Fred Co.

The Mothership has arrived! I'm not a big cloud Guru but this was pretty impressive. Only cloud in the sky at the moment. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Scattered flurries. 36 Looks like another batch on radar slipping SW of HGR.

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.

Not snow but it would be plenty cold for some powder! Perfect weather to wake up with a cup a coffee and raid the kids candy bags.

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.

Current SST anomalies are interesting, imo. Though the PDO clocked in at -1 for Sept it did rise from its Aug reading of -1.3. I understand the current state of anomalies are bound to change but if we can manage to keep some semblance of the current look as we enter Dec it would be at least encouraging. The warm water along the west coast, coolish pool where we are used to seeing the blob and an east based (up for debate ) nina. To me it looks close to '95 right now....just the warms are warmer. Sept of 95 had a +pdo...must be 2020's lack of cool anoms to the east of Japan?

Besides the 50/50 ridge...Id take this any month Nov-March. That's one heck of a LR signal. It's nice to actually have a fall....and it looks to continue.

Line certainly improving as it moves east. .37” here. Torrential rain....minimal wind and a few rumbles. Seemed more tropical than thunder buster....

Time sensitive and no match to watching the derecho but check out that little storm that hopped right over Warrenton. Following that outflow boundary I guess but that was one heck of a head fake!

The base state argument is what we should hang our hats on, imo. Why would we expect anything less than an Aleutian ridge/WAR combo that helps to continue the +NAO avg throughout the winter months? We have been the recipients of this horrid setup even when everything else says we shouldn't. This year says we should see this setup even if it wasnt the background state.

Slow day...Check out that outflow boundary in Nebraska though. Wild looking...time sensitive of course.

Great storm. Not much wind but a ton of T&L...torrential rain and pretty long duration too. 1.27" from that one. 1.65" for the day so far.

Any chance of rotation with these storms today? I'll defer to those more knowledgeable... Looks like a little rotation passing through Inwood right now...