poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Was just reading that thread...thought this response regarding the stj was interesting.
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GFS op run at 2 weeks out but this run pretty much destroyed the SPV....
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Nina update
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GFS sending the ridge into GL again...a beast
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Christmas morning....with gust to 30 around the area
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06z gefs with a better look for a wave forming on the Arctic front....Any snow on x-mas is a win but a nice wave developing down south creates some upside potential.
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Exactly....those snow maps verified just fine in PA and NY. If you are on the fringe, take with a huge grain of sleet...i mean salt
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Thought that batch in OH looked pretty robust earlier...only the 3k nam had it there but not to that extent. Other mesos just had scattered returns in OH and W PA.
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If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle......
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06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern....
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All teles line up....brief -EPO gives us a nice arctic high to work with this time. Also a rising NAO post x-mas...
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Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern.
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Op at range but ens have been highlighting a robust block forming again around this time. 12gfs took the bait big time. Wow! what a block there on Christmas day..
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Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas
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Off the current topic... Can ens, GEFS and EPS have the same general look in the LR. Some potential help on the PAC side while maintaining a favorable ATL. Looks like we will have chances for the foreseeable future... In the med range, it looks like the blocking regime on the ATL side flexes again right around x-mas and then starts to relax. Maybe a period to watch as PSU noted yesterday.
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Wherever that CCB sets up is going to be intense...according to the euro.
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Juicy....
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Trailing energy keeps light snow going...great shoveling weather...
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CMC has no accums for monday outside of the WV ridge tops
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Time to start extrapolating....
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That is just nuts...I was alive to play in the snow for that one but have little memory of it. Those stats would rival anything in my weather memory.
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What astounds me is the qpf that will be wrung out...This isnt one of our 36+ hour long duration storms. First flake to last flake is probably 18-20 hours depending on the model and spitting out widespread 15-20". Going to be an absolute mauling if things hold.
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It used to break my heart when he would say “no sign of breaking out the golden snow shovel.” Lol No doubt...the original dr nope.
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Stronger high and better placement + earlier transfer.....a trend toward a classic look today.
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Certainly more confluence so far this run
