poolz1

@nj2va Sounds like Deep Creek will be the place to be for Christmas.... Hopefully a few of those squalls will make their way over the mountains. Would be sweet to see snow squall warnings popping up x-mas day. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong low pressure center and accompanying sfc cold front will cross the area on Christmas Eve and will be accompanied by heavy showers, potentially damaging winds, and as much as 2 inches of rain that could lead to flash flooding given saturated soils from melting snow and very wet second half of the year over central and southern MD. The showers could end as a very brief period of snow showers before ending with minimal accumulation outside of the Appalachians. However, strong CAA late Thu night will result in rapidly falling temperatures with a flash freeze possible. Very cold air aloft pouring in late Thu night and Fri will result in steepening lapse rates and potential squally weather over the mtns with intense snow showers possible. Wind chills will also be a concern for the mtns where sub-zero wind chills are possible and a very cold day and night Fri-Fri night elsewhere.

Interesting to visualize... -A0 Dec and storm tracks like this would have to bode well for Jan.

Just a snapshot of what models are being asked to handle...Blocking galore and energy flying around everywhere. Not that it hasnt been said but anything past D7-8 is a crapshoot..

A bit more west based....

GFS stronger with the x-mas wave once to the 50/50 region....and man, what a block..

Beating a dead horse here a little but having this heading into Jan is as good as we can ask... AO forecasted to plummet. Just having these two in our pocket is a beautiful thing..

Really does look active! Right as start entering prime climo too.... The fact that we had nothing last year and it being the first threat of the season....I am still recuperating from the last track..lol

GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... eta: 12z gefs sniffing it out now....

Who knows if we will end up on the right side of this but it looks one heck of a dynamic frontal passage. Add in a strong low rocketing N at the same time. Temps plummeting through the 20's with very heavy snow and strong gusts....accumulation wouldnt be an issue verbatim.

If the gfs is right about the wind many will be out of power...the Southerly wind on the coast is nuts. Widespread 60-70. NW wind behind the front 35-50 gusts with snow. Wild

Was just reading that thread...thought this response regarding the stj was interesting.

GFS op run at 2 weeks out but this run pretty much destroyed the SPV....

Nina update

GFS sending the ridge into GL again...a beast

Christmas morning....with gust to 30 around the area

06z gefs with a better look for a wave forming on the Arctic front....Any snow on x-mas is a win but a nice wave developing down south creates some upside potential.

Exactly....those snow maps verified just fine in PA and NY. If you are on the fringe, take with a huge grain of sleet...i mean salt

Thought that batch in OH looked pretty robust earlier...only the 3k nam had it there but not to that extent. Other mesos just had scattered returns in OH and W PA.

If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle......

A few pics from yesterday...and last night. The band last night was really awesome.... 9" snow and sleet. 8" OTG this morning. 1.42 liquid

06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern....

-SN but about to shut down. 2.7" new 8.7" total snowfall with about 1/2" of crunch to go with it. Fun storm....

Honestly did not expect this...still intense out there.

Best show of the day right now. Very impressive rates, perfect dendrites...wind. Wow...