JTA66

Remember back in December people were saying we needed a SER cause the blocking would be SO strong we’d be dealing with suppression without it? Yeah, those were the days. 42F, clouds rolling in ahead of our next lakes cutter.

Sign me up! Again, I'm not Debbing, just trying to be realistic about where we are and may be heading. My limited understanding is this Nina is behaving like a Nino. If it continues to do so, we may do well in the second half of winter. But if the atmosphere reverts back to a Nina-like state, we may be fooked. Just no way of knowing on 1/10.

1/23 is my towel date, we're about halfway through met winter at that point. If we don't see signs of or have a pattern change underway by then, we're probably looking at a ratter. So the questions are: does the less hostile looking Pac pattern actually emerge? And if so, does it have staying power? Or is it in-and-out like the December pattern change? Of course, a basic weenie mistake is "pattern change" equals cold & snow. There are plenty of patterns that don't produce. We can go from one shut out pattern to another. But it's only Jan 10th, so I will remain optimistic for now that we see accumulating snow before the season is over. 34F

12z Euro for Saturday...hmmm. Let's just leave it there for now.

Damn! I slept through all the overnight excitement. Ground is damp so it must have been a real humdinger. 35F

And now the HRRR is essentially dry for my backyard 38F/DP 30F

Current HRRR is little more than a passing shower IMBY.

Heisy’s booking a flight.

Looks like they finally fixed the GFS. It shows an endless parade of storms into the lakes with associated fronts bringing us rain every few days. 38F

1989-90 keeps getting mentioned. After being in the 80’s the week before St Patrick’s Day, we had a heavy, wet snowstorm around the equinox. Then I believe we had a coating of snow for Easter. I think all our snow that year fell outside of winter. So yes, put me down for a late-season, does-it-even matter-at-this-point, April snow.

At least we didn’t embarrass ourselves by starting a thread

RGEM looks a bit better. It will come down to rates and elevation. Paul will jackpot with an inch

For the last couple of runs, the NAM brings another shot of snow through the area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Yeah, it’s the NAM at range and I haven’t looked to see if it has any support. But given 2023 so far, thought I’d mention it.

Rain/sleet/graupel/snow shower thingy going on, 42F.

The only other “positive” thing I can say about this winter is when we have a threat, at least it falls apart about a week out. Nothing worse than tracking for days on end only to have it go poof in the final 36 hours or so. 42F

So for next Saturday the Euro has a 996mb low off the Carolina coast and it’s rain all the way to Quebec. ”There’s no cold air!”

Let’s just get something inside 38 minutes.

Atmospheric river!! Who knows, maybe we start a thread tomorrow. Wet, mangled flakes melting on contact may be the best we'll do this year.

You should have chased in CA!

What's wrong with the Euro? It only places the low about 700 miles further north than 0z

They probably forgot to ingest new data But seriously, my point was there were some posts about suppression yesterday, which I can't understand why anyone would worry about that 7+ days out. Anyway... CMC has wrap around snows for us next weekend, so we got that going for us!

The good news is the 12z GFS should ease any suppression fears for next weekend

The only thing I've learned in this hobby is I'm amazed it ever snows at all (considering the chain of events that has to line up perfectly). There's an old joke in cosmology that the only thing physicists have managed to prove studying the universe is that we probably shouldn't exist. 42F, light rain

Getting a sun shower...very spring/summer like. 54F

Do you really wanna be in the bull's eye this far out?? I like where we're sitting for now...by Monday Dr. No will have a cutter