JTA66
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Everything posted by JTA66
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That's what I've been thinking, even if the GFS is right. This isn't a typical ice storm set up for us. Usually the cold is already entrenched when precip moves in. But it's going to be warm and wet before any change over, I think it would be difficult for ice to accrete unless it was a prolonged icing event. But yeah, thinking this is a non-event in and around the city. Maybe some pingers and mangled flakes mixing in at the end, but right now the GFS is on its own.
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If nothing else, the GFS is a stubborn SOB.
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12z NAM at range says
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Ninja'd by Ralph
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Love the heart in NV In other news...12Z GFS still looks icy.
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You can lock it in, I can all but guarantee we're getting frozen on Friday. My mom is having surgery that morning. Last time I had to take my mom for surgery? December 5, 2003. So yeah, we do frozen and hospital visits well.
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Snow wrapped about an hour ago and I’m already bored. When do we start tracking again??
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Agreed! Dry powder in peak climo is my favorite type of snow. If it snows in March, fine, whatever. But I don’t care much for that heavy, wet concrete. Now get back to work on the snow pile!!
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I didn’t have big expectations heading into this winter. My hope was maybe we could nickel & dime our way to average snowfall. Seems doable.
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While I missed out on the big accumulations here in central Montco, snow has falling for more than 24hrs (minus a few hours late yesterday afternoon/evening).
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Haven’t been out to measure yet, but looks 5-ish” from the house. Temp down to 17F, pure powdered sugar blowing around out there. Any word on MacChump and if his non-shovel-touching streak is in jeopardy?
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Snow starting up again here too. Roads and sidewalks that saw melting earlier are quickly getting covered again. Haven’t seen the lawn since about noon, so I’m just adding on from here.
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Snow had stopped for awhile but snizzle picking up in intensity again, 31F/DP 29F.
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Down to snizzle with that high Jan sun very faint in the sky, 32F/DP 29F. From what I can see maybe an inch or so has been shaved off in my neck of the woods? Not sweating it. I see some lightning strikes off the NC coast, I think that's what we need to watch as the day progresses.
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Most guidance has me around 4-6" for the event. I'm already closing in on 2" and none of it's from the coastal. Yeah, I'm taking the over.
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Probably no point in overanalyzing the globals at this stage, but fwiw it looks like the 12Z GFS does a bit of a stall off the Delmarva for a few hours.
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12z RGEM and latest HRRR still looking good for us.
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Back to mod snow, 29F/DP 26F. Forgive the weenie ob, but it feels like the PRE is overperforming here.
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I can live with them getting more than us, that's climo. It's when the Carolinas are cashing in and were sitting high & dry...that's a tough one to deal with.
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To my old weenie eyes, it didn't look like the NAM initiated the PRE too well. Probably doesn't matter at this point, we're moving into nowcasting time -- track, where/when does the upper low close off, etc. Good luck everyone, enjoy!
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I think 4-6” is a good starting point for us—I’m sure there will be adjustments as the day goes on.
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Light snow continues, everything getting coated. Hope Greenskeeper stocked up on weenies.
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Light snow, already picking up a dusting. 28F/DP 22F Y'all can thank me later for starting this thread and reverse jinxing us
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Yeah, I’ve been reluctant to say it but maybe we’re actually trending into something for a change instead of out of it. When I started this thread this morning, I was thinking maybe C-1” imby.
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fwiw…hearing the RGEM looks good.
