Boston Bulldog

850mb fronto really starting to kick into gear upstream as H8 works to close itself off. Heavy rates are likely to develop along the coastal front soon. Central New England still doing nicely under some respectable H7 fronto delivering steady moderate snow

Light rain showers in South End, Boston

Deformation band showing up right over BTV and into Mansfield. Take the over for the Spine?

H7 fronto is fueling this banding in the WAA. Once the 850mb low begins closing off this afternoon, banding will shift closer to the surface low

The jack should be where the WAA portion of the storm is maximized, and the banding this afternoon overlaps the most. I think the deformation is gonna come in a bit NW of modeling, seems like the atmosphere has it’s preferred deform location across Central NH based off prior events (aka congrats Dendrite)

Looks like BTV will be ticking up totals for Thursday along the spine if that modeling holds

This includes the squalls on Thursday

Dual lows still on NAM. Really having trouble pulling off a coherent cyclone in the fast flow

If the band orients WSW-ENE through you and Dendrite, would have to think the summit of Kearsarge could be our jack

Gotta think a lot of the bigger terrain available off 242 might be in play by now…and I’m not talking about The Dip. @bwt3650 you hearing any rumors? Hypothetically of course

It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

Dual lows showing up for both EURO and GFS. Couple more cycles of that and I’d be inclined to say that’s a real feature. Nonetheless, cyclogenesis seems to be going to shit

Looks like amounts really dropped off south of I-89. Judging from webcams, probably 1-2 windblown inches at MRG/Sugarbush

It was clear when they reported 6-10” last Tuesday morning (with a bare Stateside cam no less) that they were going to keep the preseason snow totals very fast and loose. Alta’s 2022-23 season total better look out, Jay’s coming for the 900” crown

Looks like Jay’s claiming 34” at the summit for the cycle that ended last Friday (Based off them reporting 21” over the last 48 hours). Coverage up there was great on Saturday, but I would subtract 10-12” from that for sure. It’s not like it was 3 feet of blower that condensed down, the snowpack was dense and surfy with little room for compaction. Love Jay but these reports seem to get increasingly ridiculous. 55” in a drift up against the Tram House perhaps?

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

Robust 850mb vortmax about to collide with the spine. Solid upward tick in BTV accumulation forecasts for tomorrow. 5-9” on the point and clicks for favored summits during the daytime period

First flakes in Downtown Boston. Hard to even call this a flurry, just a few stragglers making it down

Classic blocked flow this AM. Substantial upslope into the west slopes on radar. Looks like echos stop at the top of the spine, is this beam blockage? No! Clear skies over the Stowe base right now as shown on the webcam, but the eastern extent of the snow showers is very visible over the top of the spine. As froude numbers increase this will push eastward.

Back edge swiftly moving north through central VT, maybe up to another inch left for locations north of I-89?

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere

The developing pack is definitely taking a hit, but in high elevations it should survive the warm up. An extended upslope period is still showing up in guidance and it looks like there will be 2 (or 3) vorticity packets moving through the area through the end of next week to shake the upslope snowglobe. Hopefully soon we're talking about Froude numbers and critical flow, when those terms enter the conversation it's always a sign of a great pattern.