sokolow

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Everything posted by sokolow

  1. Or rather, score one for Fritz Haber and Norman Borlaug But overall the historical successes of post-Haber and post-GR ag are not, like, a cause for optimism. Insofar as we've had discussions in this subforum about the flaws and strengths of climate models that have stressed uncertainty, all that goes much more so for climate-crop scenarios which are mostly chained to projections we've all contested at various lengths (climate sensitivity, region specific impacts), and beyond that per Romano above, its not really clear what effects are going to reinforce or cancel each other out when we knock global temps outside the range of anything we've experienced since we came up with agriculture to begin with. Given all that, the IPCC ARs and related metastudies come up with something along the lines of "IF we (the grand collective pan-humanity capital-W We) pursue and adopt adaptation (the grand cooperative deeply transformative socioeconomic, cultural-political and scientific-ecological capital-A Adaptation) we MIGHT see modest increases in these-and-those staple crops, no-one knows what's going to happen with rice, and there's not a lot that can be done for corn at low latitudes. If we DON'T, or if we [email protected] it, then whhopsy doddle, its probably gonna be declines in yield all across the board, especially in lower latitudes" The uncertainty about regional impacts notwithstanding, what the capital-A Adaptation still probably means for countries and ag regions already sitting at the max temp for certain crops is, well, a lot of people are going to have to pack it in, pack it up, and move -- or radically reorient their economies to different kinds of land use. So observed climate change to date hasn't been by any means all bad for spanish grape growers, but its plausibly the case that by say 2050 its no longer going to be feasible to make wine in eastern Spain or southeastern France, or grow olives in the Levant. And, well, the exciting potential of finnish viticulture in the 21st century is not really a positive tradeoff or even neutral tradeoff, when you think about what the loss of those regional economies would imply. Edit by and by grapes are just the example I know a little bit about; real nightmares would be (already are, according to some) the near-total knockout of subsistence crops in already-stressed or failed states.
  2. I admit I didn't end up reading the paper with an eye towards taking an objective and unbiased view of the authors' evidence, analysis, and conclusions drawn therefrom because I got too distracted & excited by learning about why the Annunaki created humans to mine their gold. Apparently the Annunaki role in human origins is well recognized by Ralph Ellis' peers. One scholar, writing at theupliftingcrane dot blogspot dot com (see also his startling revelations concerning 9/11) notes: However, this leaves the question -- why, with their advanced technology, would the Annunaki need human slaves? Michael Tellinger, in the interview with The West Coast Truth posted above, explains that the answer is very simple. Human slaves *were* the technology, the tools used by a powerful but relatively small number of advanced hyper-beings to accomplish a labor-intensive task. Fascinating!
  3. Always a useful idea to glance at the authors and see how they & their work are situated in the scholarly discourse. Poking around with the ol' googler I see this paper and its interpretations regarding dust & albedo feedbacks have almost exclusively been discussed online at the communities represented by Watts Up With That, Jo Nova's website, and other forums of a more conspiracist inclination (see below). Michael Palmer appears to be a research biochemist with a background in pharmacology. As far as I saw glancing over his CV this is his only paper on climate. Ralph Ellis is listed as an independent unaffiliated researcher whose previous work focused on exploring esoteric mysteries. His work appears to generate appreciation among a certain subset of, shall we say, Bible history and Atlantis Theory enthusiasts. His interest in paleoclimate seems to be a recent departure from previous scholarly efforts such as Scota, Egyptian Queen of the Scots. See the excerpts from his website attached below.
  4. Glorious South Side picked up a nice light show, decent rain, wind came right around and temp dropped 10F (thank goodness), and we finished with a double rainbow.
  5. @Jonger Grant Foster aka Tamino has said before that ~1975-1980 is the key date range when the warming trend becomes unambiguous -- really distinct from natural variabilty in the statistical sense & basically in agreement with your point Its also the key date range when things go off the cliff for alpine glaciers & ice @csnavywx re: 2C Its always a grim party to watch Kevin Anderson work somebody over using the 2C commitment
  6. I mean for the stereotypical lawn-having homeowner the question of "what am I going to do with my standard issue slightly less than a quarter acre of open ground around my house" is variously in tension with your responsibilities to your family & the postman & your neighbors & the watershed & local ordinances regardless of where you live. say on a scale ranging from not running an illicit turd-caked piss lake of a puppy mill that spits out litter after litter of insane, inbred, ceaselessly howling, doomed golden retrievers (1) to compulsory & religious adherence to the byzantine dictates of an HOA lawnscaping compact written by Dow AgroChemical in conjunction with necromantic cultists who have imprisoned the ghost of jules hardouin-mansart, master of the gardens at versailles (10)Managing human and pet exposure to ticks, vermin, &c is on the lower end of that scale in difficulty and doesn't require an english turfgrass lawn as your choice of artificial, managed, urban or periurban domestic landscape. But it might be a good choice if you don't live in the desert and your goal is to have someplace for your kids & their friends to play pickup soccer
  7. GLOV xeriscaping / plainscaping / zen garden troll squad rolls hard, rolls deep, rolls bee- & pollinator-friendly
  8. oh yeah thats basically the trailer for the ninth (secret) episode of Frozen Planet. the one where david attenborough narrates his travels to ultima thule, the hyperborean portal to the hollow earth, and then to the hidden nazi spaceport in antarctica's neuschwabenland the original documentary episode was suppressed at the direct orders of the british crown. to make sure sir david got the message, "they" made an example of richard attenborough. rumor is they made sir david watch as the queen's great-grandchildren ate his brother alive ... and rumor is it was just like john hammond's final scene in jurassic park -- the book, not the movie. word is it wasnt when they started eating richards entrails that his screams were the worst ... but when the royal young shed their human forms & unhinged their jaws to reveal their true reptilian selves .... can't get it streaming, amazon, liveleak, anywhere ... but i'll send you a DVD copy for $9.99 plus shipping.
  9. Chance of sleet in the P&C and we've been rained out all month because the ground has been too soggy to move machines without completely destroying the site.
  10. Its what we've all been waiting for -- the 2015 Austrian glacier monitoring report, fresh and hot in your copy of Bergauf! the magazine of the Austrian Alpine Club. The glaciers are melting. Of the 92 glaciers observed, 88 were in retreat, three stationary, and one recorded an advance. Figure 3: The average change in length and the quantity for advancing (black), stationary (grey), and retreating (background color) glaciers out of those observed, from 1960 to 2015. Welp. 2014-2015 was a pretty melty year for Austrian glaciers, racking up levels of retreat on par with the blowtorch summer of 2003. Indeed, temperatures in the ablation season were 2.6C above climo, whereas the notorious 2003 season was by comparison a mere 1.9C above longterm climo. 2015 recorded the largest departure for this station network for since observations began in 1901.Temperatures at alpine weather stations during the entire yearlong observation period were overall 2.3C warmer than climo average, with only one month recording a slight negative departure. Enduring high pressure and thin warm-season snowfall predominated. Photo comparison of the Pasterze from the 20th C and in 2012.
  11. Thanks, this was cool!OT but as far as historical tornadoes go I enjoyed this read (abs; full view .pdf is free) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS2874.1 on the August 1521 Tlatelolco tornado
  12. Fantastic Hoosier, thanks. This is neat. Asking out of curiosity does Grazulis discuss what kind of difficulties there were in obtaining contemporary observations reports, & accounts in sparsely populated areas with limited roads
  13. Welp that'll be unpleasant for being out in the field It was my pleasure! Lots of fun meeting you all :]
  14. Probably is a topic better suited to pol subforum but I'd be inclined to reframe what you're saying -- which is in the rawest sense true -- as natural disasters assert an obvious crisis that compel private and public institutions to spend money on civic and residential infrastructureSo like the old Keynes chestnut where, in a depression or for that matter conditions short of full employment, it *doesn't make a difference* in terms of redistributive economic stimulus if you paid a whole bunch of laid off miners to bury gold dubloons and paid another group of jobless nurses to find em with metal detectors & dig em up instead of "building bridges or hospitals or providing a not-poisonous water supply" However as I'm sure everyone here knows when a town gets flattened by a tornado / burned by wildfire / inundated by storm surge its people whose finances and livlihoods are already precarious -- and who are already underserved by private and public powers that be e.g. minorities, the elderly, single parents -- that tend to get ruined & have their communities displaced. With potential huge social costs on a generational scale However as per the Keynes chestnut there are more humane, sensible, and socially useful ways to get the benefits of infrastructure spending than burying dubloons or waiting for cyclonic terror from the skies to level a subdivision
  15. here's a fair recent longread on ancient dogs http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-wolf-became-dog/ edit thats got a paywall doesn't it free preview of significant part of article https://books.google.com/books?id=SGAQCwAAQBAJ&lpg=PT42&ots=i6Hve2O_eU&dq=%22Yet%20despite%20having%20lived%20and%20worked%20with%20the%20scientists%20for%20seven%20years%2C%20the%20wolves%20retain%20an%20independence%20of%20mind%20and%20behavior%20that%20is%20most&pg=PT42#v=onepage&q&f=true
  16. I freakin love dogs but its OK if you don't Edit: Lookit how good that ancient pharaoh-hound dog thing is, all with its ears and the dead god dang gazelle in its jaws. Good hound.
  17. Probably there's multiple episodes of independent canine-human coevolution in multiple locations. So while the nerds who study this stuff are pretty confident in the evidence for what we'd call canis familiaris being present 15kcal BP, there's other examples from 33kcal BP and some argue even earlier evidence of divergence between dogs, wolves, and their last common ancestor. All complicated by the fact that unto this day dogs, wolves, and 'yotes can and do reproduce with one another. "Canis soupus" is a popular nickname for the dogwolf coywolf 'yote creatures that have become interesting to biologists and land managers of late.I should post up the pic of the ancient siberian hunting dog burial where its people interred it with a mammoth bone in its jaws Our ancestors didn't do breeds like the AKC: they ended up in alliances so to speak with landraces of different-shaped dogtypes that offered unique skills and advantages for whatever their archaic human selves were up to: coursing, tracking, guarding. Later herding, ratting, hauling, and so on. Divergent ancient dogtypes are attested archaeologically. So in that vernacular it doesn't really make sense to say "azawakh" or a "greyhound" so much as "coursing dog that hunts by sight" This is some weird egyptian gamepiece from 5000 years ago; I doubt that the dogs it depicts bear a special genetic relationship to for example modern english greyhounds but we could course deer or gazelles or rabbits with them just the same. Fanciers say the azawakh is an ancient breed; really what that means when we're talking about dogs is that they're geographically and hence genetically isolated from other dog populations and also wolves.
  18. Siberian puppies frozen in permafrost from 12.4kya http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0613-ancient-puppys-brain-is-well-preservedas-dog-bares-its-teeth-after-12400-years/ Cool findings for human-canine coevolution
  19. Greenland, but lots of neat stuff on salavge archaeology in and around Nuuk & elsewhere http://remains.eu/field%20sites.html
  20. Freak föhnwetter leads to tragedy at St. Paul Winter Carnival as beloved ice palace melts, slumps, collapses "Deal with it kiddoes!" scolds GLOV banter thread. "Welcome to the hard knock life. Don't nothin come for free."
  21. Michigan Pond Hockey Classic is like the most wholesome thing since Norwegian state television ran twelve uninterrupted hours of footage of a bonfire & called it National Firewood Night