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Everything posted by sokolow

  1. In what sense? My recollection of the debrief on 2009 is public health officials in the USA and at WHO saw it as a reassortment of H1N1 that was relatively novel, they were concerned about its apparent lethality when it first appeared in Mexico, they were concerned about its apparent rapid international spread. The response in the USA was to ramp up public and inter/intragovernmental, communication about it in the sense of “dust off your pandemic plan,” to raise risk measures, to issue advisories about testing, monitoring, reporting, and school closings, and to push the production pipeline on strain appropriate vaccine and antiretrovirals And in the end the lab confirmed death counts were low, estimated worldwide deaths on par with seasonal flu, and it was a bit clinically weird in that younger people had worse outcomes. Like a weather high risk day that blows low
  2. friend of mine opened her weather app and discovered a strong entry for ’nonoptimal advisory messaging’
  3. I guess this is how you know you did the right thing Probably also thinking “thanks, was an honor etc, but would prefer you stay six feet apart and wipe down high touch surfaces“ Veterans have spoken out against the decision to relieve the captain of the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt after he sent a letter to the Navy pleading for help after his ship was stricken with the coronavirus.
  4. About the rollout of antibody AKA “was that nasty flu I had in early March the ‘rona and I didn’t know it” test, I thought this was informative.
  5. I can’t immediately find to credit the person who did the quick overlay. i will try to. but she pointed out the NYT movement map and the map of “limited transport / no market within a mile” standard about what social geographers & food security people call food deserts are strikingly similar. no consideration in the travel headline of whats trying to be measured, same with the cell carrier data about driving graphic from last week
  6. this turns out to be an excellent map of far it is to a grocery store
  7. If you are interested in reporting lag and how it affects data presentation of e.g. things like the “epidemic curve” and whether the curve is flattening or not, here is an interesting thread using Ontario as a case study
  8. who all do you think has the best data vis site? i actually think some of the weirdo projects have more intuitive portals than JHU or STAT or the FT ( and the worldometer is fastest glance its the county level data and testing tabs that i think are real helpful, tho i dunno, maybe the name brand institutional sites have better QA?
  9. well its an embittered, polemical perspective that swings past issues which are actually relevant such as: its wise to have provisions for health care workers to have separate residences available so they don’t infect their families or general public if they get exposed. spouse’s institution has a plan like that for our family. hospitals are huge vectors, nosocomial infections are a Big Deal not just in pandemics but in everyday life and we’ve seen legit instances where the hospital or the medical supply chain was part of the problem in a pandemic, in the last 50 years. but like. these are things that are understood to exist and be worthy of serious study & serious policy. but apparently the author of that post is a crank who, idk, hates an ex lover who was a nurse or doctor, or thinks clinical staff should live like monks in weird health cloisters, and who also has a paranoid conspiracy theory of disease update now laughing uncontrollably at vision of gamestop manager hulking the f out on his geocities era design covid truther blog b/c they shuttered his storefront then sheriff rousted his SCA sword enthusiasts club from the park, frothing @ paragraph 15: meanwhile my b!tch exwife tina is swanning around in her nurses scrubs buying groceries
  10. This is what I’m reading r/n, via this guy, ime if you like following along & getting a glimpse into how expert teams of science professionals do research on & create frameworks for understanding emergent phenomena with high potential for community impact, then its a must-click
  11. Last year it seemed like March was three months long, and then the last week of November seemed to continue for endless months as well. Subjectively for me it was unrelenting gloom, felt like vacationing in Scotland. Constant freeze thaw. Never wet enough to justify the full on overboots, but damp enough that with three pairs of workboots in rotation the first would dry in time for the third to come home soaked. Maybe just bad luck that this winter and an extensive below-grade excavation coincided, so there was no getting out of it. Should have bought the GI moon boots.
  12. here is is
  13. Before I do that though this podcast episode was fantastic, covering what its like to have mild/moderate disease, examining public health responses & outcomes/potential outcomes in China and the USA, putting SARS-COV2 in context of other human viruses, talking vaccine / testing / treatment timelines the title says ‘interview with a covid patient’ but the patient is this guy W. Ian Lipkin John Snow Professor, Epidemiology, Professor of Neurology and Pathology and Cell Biology, Director, Center for Infection and Immunity perhaps best known to us plebs as
  14. There was a really good roundup in that guys circle as it were, of epidemiological modeling successes and partial successes (as seen so far) in what has verified, and been useful prior to verification, lemme see if i can find it
  15. This guy is a bioinformatics professor at Uni Washington and he did a snap review of the UW above study and a followup thread Where he highlights potential strengths & weaknesses of the modeling, as well as the public & policy impact pitfalls inherent to the messaging on something that’s deeply contingent on how policymakers, professionals, community leaders, and laypeople then act
  16. This forecasting exercise will come up, so I figured I would post it embedded as this guy works through the inbuilt assumptions. Click thru show thread, 20 odd tweets in chain, no 1-page collated version because thread aggregator was janky for me. Must read for model lovers, cause for cautious optimism and serious concern
  17. if your employer has a closet full of PPE sitting around if you yourself have an open box of n95s or what have you, check with all the cops, EMTs, fire rescue, RNs and doctors you personally know & make sure they got a stash. they’re already rationing PPE at my wifes workplace and i have been told it makes a huge difference to know you have a new clean mask, bunny suit, whatever waiting if the one you’ve got gets soiled beyond use; an emergency airway w patient in distress eg is not a clean affair same with niosh rated half / full mask painting & remediation gear if they’re in good condition and you have spare clean filter sets
  18. Ran across that because a friend sent me to this thread by @kakape about what expert observers thought were plausible and probable near term scenarios before the current outbreak
  19. Highlighted by @erictopol
  20. Anyway came here to post this Click to embiggen
  21. Absolutely not, we should absolutely refuse to accept an outlook where inhumanity starts and ends with the actions of our perceived enemies. If we’re going to count up the mountains of skulls, the armies of widows and orphans, the misery we make with political and economic actions or failures to act we need to put the USA, the British empire, and all the colonial powers in the same bin to be judged. We should not permit our own governments to get away with having “sinned quietly” by comparison, because for whatever reason it is convenient and comfortable to start history after 1857 or 1907 or 1957. I say “sinned quietly” because the person who wrote it made a deliberate choice to carry out policy he knew he should revile, when he damn well knew better We have to apply minimally *the same or higher* standards and hold our own “regimes” to higher levels of scrutiny and humanitarian standard whether historical or contemporary. btw as far as it goes for me this is not about like, equivocating or to excuse, to run an exercise in apologetics for a foreign government. its historical honesty we need to have about ourselves if we want a better future
  22. @RCNYILWX I think it is important to recognize that China is not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state with iron control over an antlike brainwashed populace; geopolitically it’s a modern state-capitalist superpower with a strong centralized government that has foreign, domestic, and economic policy priorities different to those of the USA. Those priorities don’t rate some individual rights as highly, and do rate some collective rights more highly. Nonetheless the level of active surveillance power & coercive intrusion the central government can apply is probably less than the DDR had at its height and likely less than the USA can apply to you or me if it thinks we’re a national security threat If I wanted to round up a dozen candid accounts & frank opinions from Chinese nationals all I’d have to do is just ask a bunch of friends and I’d probably get answers within a day
  23. Anyway I think if there’s one area PRC public health authorities might be keeping quiet that’d be real positive if there was glaring transparency, it’d be what they know or don’t know about asymptomatic carriers & transmission. AFAICT from what my spouse says, even her major research institution is grappling with the issue. Also if you can help now is a great time to call down your phone tree and make sure your family, friends, neighbors, church members, coworkers all are gonna be able to make rent & fill their pantries. Check with your local food bank
  24. Even if we want to pretend China was 100% maliciously covering it up or first and foremost covering its own incompetence or whatever — if we are seriously indicting China my god the magnitude of blame the USA deserves for how we failed to use our seven weeks to prepare to save lives and the common wealth, if we for one minute are willing to apply the standard of scrutiny to ourselves as a nation that we think others deserve.