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Everything posted by sokolow

  1. I don’t think there’s really any hard answers that I’ve heard, and I gather that the question is still an active topic of investigation for the flu. Podcast I was listening to points out its winter-summer seasonal in temperate latitudes, and appears to tend towards rainy / dry seasonal in tropical latitudes, although both types of climate regions experience flu epidemics, and at least in the places where they’d looked, the tropics may experience the same rates of infection. It may be related to there being a sweet spot for transmission as far as temp & humidity goes; they were also saying of course it may simply have a lot to do with how much time people tend to spend indoors and in close proximity to one another With the ‘rona I think the word is no-one really knows how different transmission dynamics are to the flu. The major spreading events that have been documented & studied were looked at by researchers in China, and they found that virtually all of the transmission cases they tracked were indoors but there were a bunch of caveats, namely its a shared environment right? And before indoor/outdoor come definitively into play you have to consider proximity, density of people, and time. IIRC it was pointed out that the study was done in a polity with strict stay-at-home and social distancing measures, so it doesnt rule out that the big factor might be, basically, crowding
  2. TRIP REPORT its fantastic here on the South Side
  3. Bedford thinks aloud in this thread about the potential differences between the Seattle and Santa Clara results He points out he has operating with the educated working assumption that untraced infections are something like 10-20x confirmed cases, but is eager for more data to give foundation to or revise that number range He also highlights this discussion by biostats prof Natalie Dean on her critical first read of the Santa Clara study
  4. Trevor Bedford, PI at the eponymous Bedford lab at Fred Hutch out Washington way highlights the first look at results from the Seattle area ‘rona prevlance study. The technical report is a good read because it walks the reader through the caveats and possible confounding factors of their methodology and the resulting data PDF link Both of those links from this thread, which is worth a read
  5. Really looking forward to a sunny, breezy day
  6. if anyone else is following that whole deal with the IHME model there’s this and the viewer is here
  7. @Snownado here you go, go nuts read the whole thread tho, the whole bit is important if you’re like me & trying to follow along from the back row while people who have expert field knowledge discuss their work for laypeople & their peers simultaneously
  8. thats what IHME forecast. upthread there’s some discussion about what specific purpose that model was designed for, what the big caveat is that is built into its premises, and why the purpose for which it was designed results in exactly the thing you described and why that’s not necessarily ideal when using the tool for other applications
  9. glancing more as to what all that actually means for the policy questions we want to make it serve, the upshot appears to be “we don’t know yet” because there’s apparently a dozen ways these findings could be confounded or overinterpreted, and of course there is a strong appeal towards drawing the implication of a lower IFR. i am sure we’re going to hear the TWiV nerds talk about this and i can’t wait to hear an epidemiologist do an expert roundup
  10. i went and had a glance and surveys have been done in denmark (evidence for prior infection found in 3% of blood donors, 4% in healthcare workers), similar numbers in netherlands, ongoing in wuhan, and also in santa clara county
  11. half a percent give or take sure seems pretty low if we’re talking scratchoffs or winning the big TV at the xmas raffle but thats sh!t-high odds when the prize is death and the runner up prizes include the possibility of long-term perhaps (who knows!) permanent lung damage or a nice long stay on vent. not to mention this isnt like a slot machine we get to play alone, we’re all at the table
  12. that would be fantastic if it was true. instead its just a possibility thats plausibly true but that we really really wish was real we know there’s a lot more infections than cases, sure. but how many more, thats the big cash prize whats the values out of the one prevalence study that got done in heinsberg? ~15% of the persons sampled in city had been infected to date and that worked out to ~0.5% infection fatality?
  13. I was posting about this guy earlier and this deep dive into the past (2 March!), as it were, is a cool read if you haven’t seen it before. But r/n I thought y’all might like this thread on the test - trace challenge
  14. @HelenBranswell points to article by her colleagues at STAT on the U of C hinting at useful results found in early remdesivir clinical trials EDIT a friend tells me they got questions about the value of this trial because lack of control arm combined with not real clear on criteria they used for who was admitted to study. but more importantly she has discovered intriguing relationship between cumulative confirmed C19 cases, and scientific articles related to the of the covid epidemic. coincidence....? i think not ......
  15. That’s kind of a nonproductive question by itself. Who wants to keep it going for fun? I think we’ve talked about this itt that the critical elements public health specialists are emphasizing that we need to have in place and functioning if we don’t want to go back to the same miserable story are Rapid test, Trace, Isolate, Treatment (overflow capacity and effective interventions) in the context of few enough active infections for the inbuilt time lag of the first two steps to not make the third useless. I suggest the alternate question “At what point to we conclude our business, political and healthcare leadership is incompetent for failing in allowing us to build & implement this public health monitoring infrastructure” because that’s the point where we “break stay at home” to “don proper PPE“ and “dump them in Lake Michigan”
  16. More figures from the above, again via @EricTopol
  17. NEJM posts this correspondence from public health and epidemiology researchers at UHK about their role in Hong Kong’s response, via @EricTopol
  18. My facemask, hi vis, everything looks like I went bobbing for apples in Bigfoot’s outhouse
  19. Highly effective event in terms of facilitating every tool and instrument getting covered in a terrible slurry of mud and slush while ensuring a good drenching from without and / or sweat soaking from within depending on degree of waterproofing on your clothes and boots
  20. I also want to pause to defend Buckeye’s stance on the necessity of the right to protest and dissent, even and in fact especially in time of public health crisis. I don’t usually go the classic disagree-but-defend-your-right route but the same liberty the restart the economy convoy exercised is one that wildcat-striking delivery workers or healthcare staff protesting dogsh!t PPE might need tomorrow, and which we all might need next week or next month Take a tip from the wiser, savvier hippies and have your protest organizers drill the masses on opening a lane for EMS though.
  21. I am presently in real time on the ol’ family social media watching a labor lawyer and someone who managed a regional dept. of economic security walk a whole bunch of kin through this stuff and some have had no problems. Some have gotten their Trump bucks already. Meanwhile some have gotten UI arbitrarily withheld for totally opaque reasons, and have no idea whether their stimulus check is going to be disbursed. These are all literate native English speakers with standard wage or salary jobs. Many state UI systems are not designed to facilitate ease of access to the qualified benefit, whether intentionally or not. SSDI can be even worse. Hitting that wall where what should be easy and reassuring, isn’t, and instead its a punitive nightmare, and then someone gets on you about it is your fault, is one reason why people are presently enraged.
  22. You said it! Remember the country we’re citizens of! We don’t have to choose between nursing homes with corpses stacked in the hallways and generational economic devastation! That’s just the choice our leaders are offering, because they don’t have the courage to do otherwise.
  23. I mean, @buckeye You aren’t wrong that the immiseration and shortened lives, the decades of worse health outcomes — especially for minority communities — the suicides and despair, the upheaval, is going to be an excess mortality similar in magnitude to pandemic itself. It will be generational devastation. But if that’s what comes to pass, its what our elected officials and business leadership choose for us to suffer. No joke this isn’t even about “socialism”; no-one in this thread has brought up, say, taking over Boeing as a state enterprise though maybe we should It’s not even as radical as New Deal capitalism or the war economy of the 40s. We don’t have physical infrastructure getting destroyed, we don’t have to build countless thousands of combat aircraft and a whole new merchant fleet, we don’t have to build 40 aircraft carriers of different types and roles, we don’t have to invent a superweapon using barely understood physics and brand new industrial processes, we don’t have to ship millions of teens and gigatons of war crap overseas so young men can die and be maimed crushing Hitler’s and Tojo’s legions All we have to do is pay people who aren’t doing infrastructure critical jobs to stay home for a total of what? 12 weeks in two or three blocks? until we have enough kits and appropriate monitoring protocols to adequately test and trace.