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Everything posted by sokolow

  1. Yes and no. I mean sure, there is some place in the vast spectrum of things we make, build, and do between the extremes of “Truck Nutzz, luxury yoga center, and sports mascot” on the one hand and “food, infrastructure-critical utility work, and ventilator tech” on the other where we need to be in terms of producing things. That’s some point between the things we need right now and the things we want or like. Because of course there are effects that resonate down the supply chain where, I don’t know, theres a company that that went bankrupt which mostly made novelty easter eggs, but also, was a little known subcontractor that made a little plastic widget thats in every god dang lightbulb. And now all America craps in the dark. Or whatever. But the big issue right now is ordinary people need to be able to pay rent or their mortgage, buy food, keep their utilities on, keep their car payments up, and keep their insurance. IIRC those categories there account for something like 70% or more of US household expenditures, especially in the lower earning half.
  2. Here is what I sent if you would like a template **** To the men and women of the USAA leadership, A friend of mine who is also a USAA member shared with me this article describing USAA using CARES Act stimulus funds to offset charged off debts. He was upset, and writes: “This is extremely disappointing behavior from USAA during a global pandemic and massive unemployment. Using CARES Act funds to offset outstanding debts is clearly against the spirit of the Act. While it may not be prohibited under the law, that does not make it moral or ethical.” I agree with his statement. My family has trusted USAA for decades, and it is disturbing to think USAA’s management team might be derelict in its duty to lead ethically when its members are relying on them most. Yours,
  3. A friend of mine tells me USAA is applying CARES checks to negative balances and liens Which is classic “legal but not ethical” for every bank right now but is particularly scummy and depressing to see from USAA. I sent em a letter telling em i was disappointed and if you are a USAA member please do the same. USAA can collect on those debts later, people need that money now.
  4. I want to switch to a form of government where the idled assembly line worker and unemployed waitress and the butcher at the covid contaminated pork plant get their cut of the 2.2 trillion dollars first and then we argue about how much money is left over for bailing out this or that sector of the economy
  5. Fortunately we wouldn’t have to pay it off all at once, even with our current regressive tax structure. And we’ve already committed a number in the ballpark of $1000/week per adult for 12 weeks to bailouts. There was enough money.
  6. Of course we have a choice, or, of course our elected officials have a choice. They could cut every adult a 1000 dollar check every week of the crisis, instead of just once, maybe, if it gets there, in ??? October ???. For people still working in essential jobs we call it hazard pay. We could suspend rent and mortgage payments. We could just say now everyone’s enrolled in Tricare. And there’s so many problems with all that but the correct answer regardless of the details is “go big for the little folks” and the response to any objection other than “that’s not enough” is “who gives a fü¢k we’ll sort it out later, we’re doing a bailout for normal people”
  7. From the City itself so the usual warnings in re claims by government offices and all that, and recognizing the potential for serious undercounting as we have seen elsewhere, but I get the impression from my wife, given what she’s seeing at work, the CDPH analysis is wholly plausible A definite sign of the times that it is real hard to straight come out and say “Chicago might have moved with effectiveness, social distancing and SaH appears to worked” without a bunch of caveats and also, “CDPH might be lying but if they are they’re doing a good job of secretly dumping hundreds of victims of pneumonia-like illness straight into mass graves with few stops at the nearby major research hospital’s ED”
  8. apparently taking it seriously, she says it stayed for hours
  9. My wife caught a lone, lonely goose doing a Jebwalk this morning
  10. I think a positive step going forward should be ensuring every state has UI that is focused on providing lost income replacement to 85% or better, system which has streamlined and automatic payout, and which operates on the presumption of good faith on the part of the claimant, which has minimal red tape and which is focused on ease of access, speed, and claimant support. If we want to nail serial fraudsters we can do it with actual investigators. We didn’t need to read the article about Florida to understand that in many states UI is is not set up to provide unemployment relief, it is set up to deter people from claiming UI.
  11. I thought the whole IHME epidemiologist mutual discussion / analysis was good for this thread because I really enjoy reading this community of professionals and informed laypeople discuss the tools available in the meteorology community, and which from the model suite is appropriate for which application, and with what caveats. Different forecasting, similar advisory mission. This guy who is tagged in the first tweet in that thread has made a tool to track changes in the IHME projections over time
  12. In re the IHME model, here is an interesting discussion of side effects that arise from it having been designed as a resource-use forecasting tool for healthcare institutions & response planning, but then being employed “off label” as it were in a broader context
  13. probably not productive, nevermind
  14. no-one likes that part because instead of putting the responsibility on the tradespeople to individually “work safe”, it places the responsibility on contractors to design a safer workplace and bid with schedules that allow for stopping to think about what they are doing, and to bring in & install appropriate material / equipment / temporary structures / whatever or to just wait, to wait out a couple days of inclement weather rather than working in flooded trenches and muddy excavations
  15. construction in IL has been largely exempt from the SaH order and honestly it has been very uncomfortable because the majority of current projects are nonessential. In the sense that it doesn’t matter if society takes delivery of a condo block or a new subdivision a month later than planned, regardless of what the governor says; its not critical infrastructure. Its has been uncomfortable because everyone has had to patch together an industrial hygiene plan on the fly for environments when most OTS PPE is rightly committed elsewhere, but lots of tasks need two sets of hands, and require men & women to work close together in tight spaces. PPE is a mitigation measure you implement not first, but third, after avoiding or abating the hazard in the first place. PPE is part of a cost benefit analysis that recognizes no job can be 100% safe, but another part of that analysis is “why does this need to get done right now? why not wait until we can do this a different way?
  16. Lots of recycling and the occasional piece of lawn furniture migrating towards the lake by Sox/35, a brief lash of flurries and rain, now blue overhead between the clouds
  17. anyway, today is the first day I have caught all the way up on the ‘rona news and not been grimly depressed. UW-IHME sees evidence that social distancing actually works, And the incorporation of new data into the IHME model indicates the plausible possibility that IL might not go up against the wall on its medical resource capacity
  18. I thought you all might find this comparison interesting. a biostatistician asks this: And a meteorologist from EUMETSAT replies like yea:
  19. It’s been political since the industrial revolution, or for a more specific starting point since the radium girls and since SoL Frances Perkins hulked out hardcore about silicosis in wake of the protracted horror of the Gauley Bridge miner’s disaster. Because in many cases it invokes a proper regulatory question. I suppose the best way to look at it is, “it is automatically political, how can we make it productively political”
  20. I mean, its not just something that only became relevant for the ‘rona, mortality and injury data is also fundamental to public health policy nationally and internationally, for doing demographic and actuarial research, for IDing patterns of domestic abuse & child abuse, for understanding social inequality, for workplace safety & health, to understand emerging health concerns, and so on. my wife tells me its also not so simple to do a good job assessing a cause of death & that its an art and a science worth studying edit also, sad to say, its important to law enforcement generally and also for tracking elder abuse
  21. @Hoosier WaPo had an article about this just today
  22. Chicago crew has best Stern Mayor Quarantine Memes
  23. Probably, and I’ve seen people who aren’t running an anti-chinese paranoia line treat 30k deceased but not and/or not yet identified as c19 cases as plausible. It makes sense that given that Vincent Racaniello was willing to speculate actual infections in the USA were likely over 1M by end of last week, and we’re going to have the same issue as other countries of having to wait and do post-event analyses of excess deaths against baseline to sort out what was the potential number of fatalities that might have been the ‘rona that just weren’t lab-confirmed I try to keep reminding myself the number on the tracker is not the Real True Number of C19 deaths, its a incomplete and provisional number given the constraints of data collection and reporting during a dangerous, politically charged, potentially historic pandemic.