FXWX

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

John, Couldn’t agree more with everything you said.
 

 Personally, I just like seeing the colder temps around like they have been of late at this time of the year. 

Agree... While we aren't staring down the barrel of T-Day blizzard, I am ok with the general pattern trends overall.  I do think they pay dividends down the road.  I love it cold on T-Day... No fun cutting down our trees in a T-shirt... Would love to get cold enough to get some skating in with the grandkids during Xmas week.  Usually hard to do, but not impossible... 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Whatever fits his agenda…And it’s Crystal clear it’s an agenda.  
 

Guess he’s a big Euro guy…the model has blown 10 men the last year or two, but he swears by it.  

Unfortunately every November some posters (not all) fall into what I call the Hallmark card and/or movie syndrome.  Where it snows before and during every holiday period.  Endless scenes of folks trekking through snow or skating on ice covered ponds. While I would love to see it on a regular basis, that's not the history / climatology of SNE winters.  The rare one comes along a couple of times in a life time, but the operative word is rare.  So when we latch onto a 6 to 10 day operational GFS or Euro with little or no ensemble support, we can dream, but many more times than not it's ain't happening.  Don't get me wrong, I have lived through a handful of special Thanksgivings and Xmas weather periods and loved them.  But I usually have to pop on a Hallmark movie to see holiday snows!!!  Fingers crossed that the run up to Christmas this year is a special one.

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs dropping 4-8” and an icestorm or Euro, GEFS, EPS with damaging screamer? One makes sense one doesn’t. 

Actuallly 3 make sense, and one doesn't...

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

I had the same cab on my JD. i got tired of how the snow sticks to the plastic windshield, so I just sold it. it is a great concept, and does keep you warm and mostly dry. But it really sucks when you can't see out the front window.

Agree... I use a full ski mask and googles... its colder, but it just became too much of a nuisance to see where I was going... lol

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wavelengths start changing in December so it may not be as simple. But right now, I don't think we are seeing the classic Nino coupling yet.

Agree...  I think variability and maybe volatility is favored over the next 3 to 4 weeks, maybe biased above normal overall, but I don't dislike the evolution of the late fall / early winter pattern.  I'm pretty sure we will have to fight through some hostile / ugly periods but I don't think a repeat of some recent brutal past winters is at hand.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we go by the MJO CCKW stuff that has dominated lately, we'll get milder after first week for a time before maybe switching later in 3rd week of December. Give or take on those time frames obviously.

Obviously specifics and timing issues will need refinement, but I agree with the general pattern progression you suggest...

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously long-range isn't my thing, but I've spent a great deal of time the last year really digging into it more and looking at composites for all EL Nino events but I as well think there is too much weight being thrown around on a warm Dec just because it "fits" the mold of EL Nino or stronger events. Not every single EL Nino event (regardless of strength) has produced this. I think people get too caught up in just looking at general composites. Certainly a general composite is going to give you a mean (although there is always a risk that mean can be skewed) but you have to run each individual (month, season, etc) against the mean and when differences arise, explore what caused those differences. 

In reality Wiz, long range is not anybody's thing...  Lots of folks and organizations play with it, and all the more power to them; I admire the grit and determination.  But the skill level in terms of truly actionable outcomes is still very poor.  That does not mean we should stop trying, but folks have to remain realistic about its value.  Chatted with Walt Drag about it the other day and like me, he believes there is a ton of room for improvement in the day 10 to day 15 range that would bring lots of value to the forecasting community.   Getting much improved skill scores to the 10-to-20-day period is where a lot of effort should be directed...  

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

The irony is, I didn’t commit at all, was just in awe over the anxiety, because we are 3 weeks away from the very start of December.  And then we have 4 weeks to finish December.  So my reasoning is, that is just too far out there at this point in time, to flush the month of December, and call it a loss wintry speaking, at least as of today.  
 

I said nothing about betting with somebody. I just didn’t understand the angst of some folks about December/and the up coming winter In general on 11/9? 
 

And that’s all there is to it on my end.  If it ends up warm and snowless(December and the rest of the winter)..I’ll tip the cap to em. 

I hear ya... was just commenting on Powder-F comment...  I do think there is far too much wrist-slitting about poorly modeled periods 3 to 5 weeks out in the future.  You have to separate out the comments from some of the mets who are commenting on the look of the pattern, as modeled, and just indicating the most likely outcome were it too verify.   That does not mean they think the pattern is likely to verify.  They are just saying "IF" it looks like the modeled pattern when we get there, the likely outcome will such and such.  Obviously, the trend on the extended period modeling does not look great and if the same trends continue to show-up for another week or two then there will be reason for concern.  But as we have seen many times before, the weeklies can crash and burn miserably.  Unfortunately, in recent years that has been the case many more times with projected cold periods than warm periods.  And yes, even crappy looking Decembers can produce significant snow (or ice) events... All you need is a favorable, well-time period?  I tend to not worry about solid winter patterns through mid-December; often I look at the holiday period moving forward...  

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I do wonder if opinions or posts on here would change if real money was on the table.  I believe TanBlizz would still be all in on warm/above normal temps… but I would be interested if Wolfie was all in on cooler temps in the long range, once money becomes involved.

Odds would also be interesting.  It’d sort of be putting your money where your mouth is and see how that changes the tone.

Oh I think the tone would instantly collapse into very mediocre, blah non-committal statements...

6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

We all know about how Roger Williams was kicked out of the Mass Bay Colony after the great meltdown during winter 1635-36.

These 2 quotes (your's and Coastal s) need to be added to the greatest posts of all time list! Lol

2 minutes ago, Zeppy said:

2hr delay for school tomorrow...is it just me or does that seem ridiculous? New superintendent being overly cautious perhaps.

Chance of the first icy morning commute in some areas probably driving the decision.  Many districts use a NWS Advisory statement in effect at the bus time during the morning commuting period as a reason to run with a delay, especially early in the season.  Also, the decision is often a collaborative call with local DPW.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That is also a snap shot as the pattern improved after Brooklyn's post. Right now, I'm not really big on December and expect it to be hostile at times. That doesn't mean it won't snow.

Agree... We have lots of crappy Decembers that produce snow but it rarely sticks around long... There will be a couple of windows even during a hostile December.  My pattern take has me interested in a December icing threat for portions of the region, prior to or near the mid-month period.  

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The last strong El Niño had a December that was good.   Even 1957 had a 12+ event in NJ on 12/5-per my memory EWR recorded 13.3. Not sure what happened here.  

There is a fairly long list of solid winter events occurring during the first 5 or 10 days of December regardless of ENSO state.  The problem for hardcore winter snow pack lovers is that the snow cover rarely sticks around long.

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Megavaginage is an idiot. 

About 16 out of 20 of those solutions produce little or no significant impacts across the locations he outlined!!!  He also stated he sees a signal during a time frame that has been discussed for more than a week by many others.

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, here's the EPS mean....you can clearly see some synoptic support for a wintry threat

 

 

Interesting in that this look is the look many of the seasonal model runs have painted for the Jan/Feb period?  While it's possible that it fails a bit given it's fighting mid fall temp Nov climo, but if this represents where the mid/late winter pattern wants to go, I'd jump all over it...

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well we need to get to Monday and still have this on the GGEM and Euro/ EPS. Until then let’s hope it’s real and pray for mass outages 

Good to see you are in midwinter form... Certainly an early tease, but history indicates noteworthy early season threats are usually very dynamic setups...  at least we are tracking something other than rain and dews...

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

schools closed, plow sparks flying with blades on wet roads, silverheads cleaning out the milk aisle?

I think the silver heads comment was a bit harsh... Lol... By the way, many of them will have stocked up by Sunday based on tv hype...

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Real borderline at 925 south of pike. I think you want a bit more of a dynamic system.

For a variety of reasons, especially the low-level thermals, dynamics have to really ramp up more than currently modeled for this to do much of anything south of Pike.  And that assumes, there will be a system?  

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big outages 

What is your over / under number on CT power outages?  Right now, I'm on the low side of any number unless it's zero!  Lol

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least there's a decent Scooter high north of Maine.

Also... By the 5th of Nov we will be able to see the Euro weenie maps an hour earlier... Lol...

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Poconos/Catskills getting less than I-95. LOLOLOLOLOLOL.  

You can see that happening for a particular storm, but tough to get the entire snow season to have that type of distribution... Maybe there will only be one storm for the whole season and it will be an I-95 crusher!!! Lol

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

First week of October…mid 80’s John.  That was summers last gasp. 
 

That early September wave was a scorcher…best of the summer season, and right at the end.  But that was still technically summer obviously.  

Yikes... Brain freeze... I totally forgot about the early Oct heat!  My focus on weekend ruining rain events has obviously gotten the better of me!!!

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The early month heat was fairly impressive.

Early Sept?

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just flaccid. No real notable warmth either.

This fall has been remarkably unremarkable...

Not that I follow BAMwx, but saw this screen grab of their winter snowfall on X...  Probably not going to put smiles on the faces of snow lovers... again, this is their assessment, not mine...