FXWX

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Also I should clarify that I meant more in this area. Sorry if I wasn’t clear.

It was clear to me, as the overall greatest risk was (no shock) eastern areas; especially the coastal plain.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

 

My amazon order arrived.........

That's the one 

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love to see Scoots like this.  Love love love to see it 

Don't put more hype into Coastal's post then he intended.  "Caa mixes to and above 925 perhaps briefly".  He is not indicating a high probability but a "chance for a brief mixing"...  He certainly is not hyping it...  That being said this setup has a bit more potential than last week's but not yet a lock by any means.  

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wish we could trust the weeklies more…they look amazing for January. But really the confidence drops so much after D10-12 even on the regular ensembles…nevermind weeklies. 
 

If there’s one takeaway from the last couple of runs starting last night, it’s that even if the central Canada blocky pattern doesn’t produce, it’s a good omen for the polar domain later on…we should avoid a ‘94-95 evolution even if we temporarily look like 1994 for a week in December. 

Agree...  I still think the long range modeling had it right about Jan & Feb featuring Pacific energy under-cutting higher heights across western and central Canada leading to a very active storm pattern... The only question will be amount of cold sitting across eastern Canada and the Northeast prior to the arrival of each storm.  I would roll the dice with this type of pattern any winter.  Hopefully we see cold periods hang in there enough times to allow for some widespread snow events...

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm old and i don't.............

All kidding aside, I enjoy browsing around a good bookstore.  When we travel I try to make a point of checking out the local book section in book stores... I've found some gems featuring local storm events... The best pictorial book on the 38 hurricane I ever came across was found in a bookstore in Watch Hill... 

19 hours ago, dryslot said:

People even still shop Brick & Mortar?  

Old people do!!! Lol

2 hours ago, Layman said:

My Amazon order for this book got cancelled.  No reason given.   Not sure what this means for winter...

I've seen in book stores; Barnes & Nobles?

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, I get the frustration of last winter, but we’re actually in a totally different pattern even if December sucks so far. 
 

People should also have realistic expectations. Decembers are typically pretty tough in El Niño unless you get big blocking. I think it’s fair to get discouraged if we are entering January and it doesn’t look good. 
 

But that said, you are correct that we don’t need a Kocin cookbook pattern to get snow events. That later month look where it gets a little blocky around Hudson Bay and adjacent Canada can work provided we get some western ridging with it to give us a few northern stream impulses. 

Folks forget or choose not to remember the El Nino discussions during the early fall that strongly suggested December would likely run the risk of a being an above normal month with thread the needle events for any shot at meaningful snow threats.  In a lot of ways this December is playing out pretty much according to classic past El Nino years... 

The same long-range outlooks the pointed out the risk of a warmer than normal December, also pointed toward the pattern improving once into or just beyond the Xmas holiday week.  I am in that camp even if the shift to a more favorable setup waits until early January.   This December pattern is nothing like last December and the global pattern is very different.  I do not expect the pattern to flip into an unusually cold regime once into early January and I don't think one is needed to see significant Northeast snows.   As we all know, pattern transitions are commonly a bit later the originally thought so no one should be surprised if the more favorable pattern waits a week or more later than originally projected.

I don't think anyone is talking about a Jan 2015 type of flip, but I expect the large-scale NA pattern will grow more favorable for significant storm action moving into January, even if the regional temperature pattern is close to normal or a bit above normal.  The pattern laid out by 40/70 is a very realistic path forward and one that fits where I think the long-range modeling seems likely to go:  In short, more western ridging, an active Pacific jet under-cutting Western ridging and enough high latitude blocking to allow seasonably cold air masses to visit on a regular basis...

Rain in the process of changing to a bit of wet, non-accumulating snow here in Burlington, CT...

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He's a great author of that sort of write.  I think he has others; shame on me for not owning any.

If anyone is interested, try "Isaac's Storm" - Erik Larson.   Fantastic read

Yes indeed... 

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Many Christmases at CON with no sleighing. Maybe even a nice little grincher in there in 1866?

Love it... The telegraph weather forums were going crazy depressed settlers during some of those years... Lol

37 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is it this book?  It's dirt cheap and sounds interesting.  I'm going to grab it if it is.  EDIT:  I bought it regardless 

https://amzn.to/3RbQKIO

Yes... It is a great book...  Full of the history of New England weather from cold to heat, snowstorms, hurricanes and tornadoes.  It's actually a great coffee table book.  I've had it for 40 years and still thumb through it a few times a year... Highly recommended... 

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December).  When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much. 

Folks should go and read David Ludlum New England Weather Book... Wonderful sections on the winters of the 1700/1800 time span... You will come across quotes from journals and diaries written back then complaining about the lack of cold and snow compared to past winters...   

13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So can I ask you John, does the upper air pattern and pattern recognition match what the Euro is spitting out today? And if it does, then should we expect the Euros idea from today to prevail? 

Sorry for late reply, but short answer is yes.  That does not mean tweaks don't have to be made, but overall I prefer the euro evolution in the short and medium range terms...  

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It would…but we’ll all be long dead. It’ll suck for the weather geeks at that point. 

Model discrepancies and variability is what keeps the science alive...  Just like a good forecaster needs to analyze the actual pattern, surface and aloft, they also need to assess whether or not a particular model run makes sense given the nature of the current atmospheric setup... If it does, why does it make sense and is it believable?  If it doesn't make sense, you have to figure out what is causing it to go astray?  One of the reasons I think there are folks that think the modeling has gotten worse is that they don't realize years ago pattern recognition and analysis played a bigger role in forecasting than it does now, in some, not all quarters.  Today I see some folks (I'm talking in general, not about anyone on this forum) spending 99% of their time looking at all and every modeling product, but rarely studying any actual data maps...  

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. 

And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. 

Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose.

Imagine how completely boring it will be if and when the modeling reach infailable levels one day down the road... There would be just one centralized forecast office manned by a person to activate the computer and a janitor to dust... Also it would spell the death of weather forums! Lol

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1728047196291907617?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

By the end of the winter he will have thrown so much spaghetti on the wall he will claim victory... Does it every year.  This call has some pattern progression merit but I see it from him every winter.

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Adorable. Great picture John! She’s a lot bigger now that’s for sure…I’ll guess 11yrs  old now or so. Time flies. 

Yes Wolfie... Time does fly... She's 10 going on 20... Lol.  She calls the Cape home now, which means I had to install a Davis on their roof... They have verified 2 blizzards and 2 tornados since moving their 10 years ago!!!

Happy Thanksgiving to all... Here's a pic of my granddaughter T-day 2014!  

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should start as snow for Tolland. Maybe even minor acc.

Started as snow as far south as Middlebury and Cheshire, CT (along I-84 corrdior)... Light coating already in Warren, CT...

Light snow flying through the air at 1,160' in Burlington, CT...

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Old news from 3 days ago. 

Actually, I love seeing that wall of cold sitting just off to the north... Keep it within striking distance...

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all. 

Lol... You do get a sense the modeling is playing Russian Roulette winter storm game here...

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late November is tough sledding usually…even in our cold patterns. I was posting the other day to OceanStateWx and Scooter about how our Novembers typically are kind of tough because it’s a bit compressed when we have cold patterns and SWFE that early on will favor NNE. So we need to thread the needle in SNE. 
 

I wouldn’t rule out a little appetizer though the week after Tday. There’s a lot of cold around…just need to time a shortwave right. 
 

Hopefully the modeled December warmup is only like 10 days and we can grab some chances toward the holidays. 

Agree with the need to watch period after T-day... Cold is solid in that period... See if we can time some sort of disturbance in that slot.  Then I do think it will like a lot of recent Decembers... Waiting for some sort of flip as we head into or through Xmas holiday period?  Unfortunately in the last few years the wait has been tedious.  Speaking of Hallmark cards this was the scene out my dining room window early last December...