FXWX

51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a lot that has to go right. It's also not only about having the right pieces in place but the evolution of those pieces have to be just about perfect. It's one thing to get the pieces but it's a whole another ballgame to get everything to evolve perfectly. 

Yup...

45 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its way worse then trying to thread the needle on snowstorms, To many factors need to go right.

Agree 1,000%...

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes I do agree at this early stage. Thing isn’t even a depression yet. And days and days away from even approaching the east coast. But things need to keep evolving to have a legit shot. The next few days will be telling for sure.  Very Low confidence currently anything can come of it, but still too early to be ruled out completely. 

Agree Wolfie... we can never sleep on the threat... and we don't need a Cat 3 at LF to have major impacts.  The nature of our hardwood forecast and densely populated region opens the door to widespread long duration power issues even with a solid Cat 1 / 2...

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What a waste then…another fish storm.  Hopefully it doesn’t even materialize if that’s the case. 

That's why the repeat period is so long... it's like trying to paddle upstream into an increasing strong current; most of the time it succeeds in turning you away.  Basic meteorology shows New England is usually fully embedded in the westerlies.  I wouldn't say the odds of this getting to the coast is zero, but they are low... could it make a close approach? Yes but work needs to be done to get it to the coast.  Still time in the season for another threat or two...  actually the odds increase a bit once more vigorous polar short waves start to show up... 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

First trough over the SE creates a weakness that pulls this N. Not sure how we avoid that. 

We don't...  this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast.  Should put on a nice satellite image show though...

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The high is important, but to @FXWX’s point, the door doesn’t really open without a GL negative or cutoff trough. That’s the key. 

A far less likely way would be to eliminate the troughing and get two ridges—one over the CONUS and a big WAR and steer future Lee around the periphery of the WAR. Seems unlikely though. 

A stronger high may serve to slow the system, possibly even stall it a bit.  In past similar situations, a slowing/blocked or stalling setup could increase the threat to the Carolinas; maybe hold it southeast of the Carolinas until a bigger trough comes along to grab it.   Not 100% out of the question that a strong high wouldn't direct it into the Carolinas and whatever remains comes northeast as a blustery tropical rain event.  Not very likely but on the list of possibilities if the high goes crazy.  Even if the high becomes a blocker, you still need the type of MW trough I've talked about to get SNE in trouble otherwise it becomes Carolina hit and rains itself over TN/OH.

47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What business are you in...are you a TV met?   A good hurricane is a disaster for my business...insurance.

Private consulting meteorologist... 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It is slowly trending and evolving . You can see the deeper MW trough each run too. Not there yet no.. but the trends are favorable 

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1698694985820848392?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Hey Kev, I'd like a good tropical just as much as any other guy!  I love the excitement the approach a hurricane threat to the East Coast can bring.   And I will be monitoring for changes and trends.  But we will need to see very significant pattern trends with any evolving MW trough in the next 48 hours or so...  If there is even any modest southwest flow component to the right side of the trough, this will turn seaward when it nears the coast, if it makes it that far west.  You need neutral trough alignment at least; ideally a bit of a slight negative tilt.   Also, be very wary of any model attempts at a capture into the trough as it gets close to the coast...  That almost has to have a full-blown negative trough approaching to workout.   I'd love to see it and will jump onboard if trends suggest it; hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business... I have a whole house / office generator and weeks of propane, no trees anywhere near my house, so a can dela with the disruptions a good hit would produce.  Keep the faith Kev... you never know???

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

You don’t know that…and you know it. But by all means play the odds…it’s worked most times. 

IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless.   Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast.   Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity.   I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet...

7 hours ago, Diggiebot said:

I remember Matt noyes doing an analysis of all the points a NE hurricane passed through and this storm is hitting them all. 

You can hit all the benchmarks you want, if the door Infront of the system is not open it doesn't matter.  Go back and look at the 500 mb before all of our previous hits!!!  When they were going through the check points the pattern ahead of them was already evolving in a threatening way... 

41 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

I think any New England hurricane will be sneaky. The large scale setup never looks good for a NE hurricane let’s be real. If we get one it will just happen and shock everyone not on this forum. 

All righty then... it's settled.  New England gets hit by a sneaky hurricane that no one saw coming... your second sentence could not be any more inaccurate...

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here we go!

There's a lot of work to be done before I would be mildly interested in this setup producing any New English issue.  Believe it or not, our significant hits actually have a pretty solid footprint for trouble in place by day 10.  This one, in my opinion, does not.  Still time to change but I'm not a fan of the large-scale layout at this time.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

If the particulars of the Great Lakes and New Foundland circulation mode are even being modeled right at this two week lead time…I’d bargain that they aren’t(as you obviously know).  So as you said, there is lots of time to see how that particular set up(circulation) ultimately unfolds in reality. 

In the end, we will have to see a more pronounced reflection of lower heights south of the Great Lakes (Ohio Valley area) that can eventually produce a neutral or negative alignment to any trough coming east.  Would have to follow system coming southeast out of central Canada to see if that potential eventually exist.  Far less worried about the ridge... unless we eventually see signs of Ohio Valley troughing odds are low for a coastal runner!  Carolina threat in play moreso. 

On 9/1/2023 at 9:44 AM, weatherwiz said:

 

Certainly a fast moving, strong tropical system isn't going to care much about SST's. Absolutely agreed there. However, it's not guaranteed any system would accelerate, even though historically that seems to be the case. All I was suggesting is with the SST's, a slower moving system would have much more time to weaken and probably weaken steadily. 

I hear ya Wiz... it's that historically they almost never move up the coast slowly and tend to move faster than all the models forecast.  It's seems to me there almost always a model bias of being too slow when it is all said and done.  All that being said, if the we were to get a slow northward moving system, the cool waters would certainly be a killer.  

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh so now you agree that cold front was the catalyst for the complete pattern flip. However I believe that a transient well timed pattern will easily let any tropical up here. A back break does not mean it's over tropical wise. Agree on SSTs but our great hits are by 35 mph moving cyclones and SSTs minimally affect those. Ask Newfoundland about that.

Sometimes the smarter we are the dumber we get!  Looking at the SST profiles just south and east of SNE and using that as an "all clear" single is folly!  And history bears that out.  I don't think Sandy and the 1938 hurricane cared much about the SST.  Newfoundland? hell, ask Nova Scotia about that...  Almost all of our meaningful hits featured a fall-like pattern transition underway with a digging or negatively tilting trough approaching.   For us, it is all about a fast northward moving system that goes from NC to SNE in 12 hours or less, be dammed the SST.  We are never talking about a system crawling along at 15 to mph... That's not, nor ever will be how SNE does hurricanes... 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They should go ahead, throw hands, and name one of these, ‘Darwin’  There’s a CNNer for em, “Darwin targets rural Americana gulf folk, y’all”

They take the wrong tact. They shouldn’t warn and impose evac … they should say next of kin are responsible for bloated corpse retrieval fees for when your own frozen assets can no longer cover the cost of clean up. 

In some cases, they do interview them, and request info needed for identification, and family members to contact, if need be...

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah … no doubt.

My snark was aimed at CNNs headline rabble rousing lol.  They take NWS statements like never in that region …and convert it never in your life life life  

I hear ya... Just got off the phone with a former student of mine; he is now the Meteorologist in Charge at Tampa NWS...  He indicated that if the surge forecast is correct, it would be above any levels in modern time for a portion of the Big Bend area; they have responsibility through Cedar Key before NWS Tallahassee zones takeover.   His concern is there are over 2 dozen residents within the max surge zone that have refused to evacuate... 

42 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Meteorologically speaking, this will likely deliver a once in a lifetime event for the area. Almost 100 years since the last Category 2 made landfall in the area. From a relative perspective, and while you never wish for a major hurricane to impact people's lives, yet thankfully this event will occur across some of the least populated areas of Florida. 

Posted in the Tropical HQ thread:

-------

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

• Hermine (2016) - Category 1
• Alma (1966) - Category 1 
• Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

 

Thanks for the info... right after I sent that post, I saw several sources proving that if the Idalia does indeed hit the area now projected and does produce the level of surge forecast, it will be a once in lifetime or generation event for those folks.  

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here comes the CNN machine ...

Idalia could be a once-in-a-lifetime event

I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later...  Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights.  Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots.

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sort of like DITs above the mulch garden.

 

Correct... the reading is actually accurate but it is not representative of the air mass... Just like a high dew point over the mulch bed is accurate for the spot, the local air mass dew point is considerably lower.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyone know how the depth of anomalies compares to say 1997, 2010, 2015 at this time?

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

Haven't had much time to dig deep, but seen some discussions that they are a bit shallower.

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing that does have me nervous is we see a flip regime into the Fall which favors a eastern ridge and that pattern strengthens into the winter and we see a more typical strong/super strong eastern EL Nino driven ridge...not saying this happens, but it is a concern. 

It should be a concern...

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably sometime early December riding builds in and dominates for a few months 

Why not! Lol...  

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the MJO will shake it up a bit. Not saying 90s, but maybe a lot of 75-85 stuff. Hopefully more 80s.

I can see that happening... I'd like a modestly above normal Sept.  Don't need it to be hot, but low to mid 80's works for me... I think the window for that type of regime will open up during the first half of Sept once this latest troughing episode runs it's course.  Hard to believe some of the Plains heat won't eventually mix out a bit across the Upper Midwest & Northeast.

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see a warm risk especially first half. Doubt we keep constant troughing. 

We, myself included, have been saying we can't keep constant trough for weeks now, but the footprint refuses to budge.  Eventually it will exit, but I'm not betting it happens in the short term...