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FXWX

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    Significant Miller B Nor'easter Apr 3rd-4th OBS

    in New England

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    I don’t think it blossoms until midnight-ish

    I think there is a tendency for some to look at the radar trends during the early evolution period of a storm, and assume it represents how the storm precip pattern will look hours later during the maturing stage of the storm.  In this case, the chaotic look of what is going on now across southeastern NY and SNE will likely blossom into a widespread concentrated precipitation shield across northern Mass / NH and western Maine later tonight and early Thursday.

    Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th

    in New England

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet  

    1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 

    2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. 
     

    If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. 
     

    Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 

    Agree completely with your caveats; I think you can survive the marginally cold at 925 with modest rates in mid-winter, but not in early April... Some of the past monsters being thrown around either excessive dynamics or much colder profiles.  And 1982 had both with pure Arctic cold... I will get more interested if the consolation process appears likely to be perfect...

    • Like 1

    The Congrats Dendrite Deck Destroyer 3/23-3/25 obs discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Look at that ORH icestorm . And no one knows it’s coming if they’re not reading here 

    *** Here's a snippet from my late morning update to my Aubuchon Hardware Group across VT/NH/ME; an hour later I expanded concern into northern Mass...

      

    11:35 AM    FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2024

     

    HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO SEE INCREASED MODEL SUPPORT…

     

    VERY CONCERNING TREE DAMAGE / POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL IN PLAY FROM CENTRAL NY ON NORTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF VT, NH AND INTERIOR MAINE…

     

    Discussion:  If anything, the outlook for widespread heavy to locally excessive snowfalls and ice accumulations has grown even more worrisome with almost universal model support.  While I think the modeling may still be a bit over-blown, even if the totals are only 80% of reality, they still suggest a widespread damaging heavy snowfall and ice accumulation event late tonight and Saturday for many areas along and either side of the axis depicted on the snowfall map below.  LONG DURATION OUTAGES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY???

    • Like 4

    March 2024 disco/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    If the modeling is close to correct for portions of VT/ NH/ME, the darkness that follows this storm will blow away the total eclipse many times over! Instead of 2 to 3 minutes of totality it will be a long duration power outage event!!!

    • Like 2
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    • Weenie 1

    March 2024 disco/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

    Ha! In all seriousness though, that really is an awesome view, and nice neighborhood too! For some reason I always forget how hilly Connecticut is, even just west of Hartford. I should probably drag the chairs out to the decks today too - they aren't Adirondack chairs though!

    Technically in Hartford county but I'm within a few hundred feet of the Litchfield City line.  These are the highest buildings lots in Hartford City.  Stay well and get those chairs out!

    • Like 1

    March 2024 disco/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

    Incredible view, but I really doubt you can see the Adirondacks from Connecticut, even at 1140 ft! ;)

    Lol... I assumed everyone would know I was talking about the chairs but as soon as I hit submit I thought there would be a couple of replies about the Adirondacks looking less impressive... Lol... That view is east of the Berks closer to Mtn. Tom area... 

    • Haha 4
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