WxWatcher007

I like where you place your trust.

Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain.

Also, time to update Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (2) Hurricanes: 9 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)

IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding). A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening.

So much to unpack watching the terrible situation in LA unfold.

East side…a lot of ugly things happen on the east side of a hurricane. Flash Flood Emergency for NO.

Heartbreaker for those of us up north starving for action

Never too early to start breaking weenie spirits! Yeah, it was all at night. Eyewall was post midnight and the power promptly went out lol.

Delayed but not denied Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The system has become better organized this morning, with the low-level center located on the southwestern edge of a persistent mass of deep convection. A 1246 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed an area of winds over 40 kt southeast of the center, so the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Julian with maximum winds of 45 kt. Julian is accelerating toward the northeast (045/15 kt) in the flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is expected to move around the southeastern and eastern periphery of this large low during the next few days, accelerating further and turning toward the north by 48 hours. The track models are all in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. This new forecast is also relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Winds in the storm have increased faster than expected, even in the face of 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This shear is forecast to increase substantially in the coming days, with SHIPS diagnostics indicating it may reach magnitudes of 40-50 kt. However, the storm will still be moving over marginally warm waters around 26 degrees Celsius, and its fast motion and some baroclinic forcing could allow for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Nearly all the intensity models support some strengthening, and the NHC official forecast peaks the winds at 55 kt in 24 hours, roughly between the IVCN and HCCA solutions. Phase-space diagrams suggest that Julian will probably already be going through extratropical transition at that time, and it should be fully extratropical by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 24 hours, and the extratropical low is likely to dissipate over the north Atlantic by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 35.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

It was a little more ragged on radar before bursting again but that’s really all relative. This will be one of the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in US history. Incredible to see so many in recent years. Maria (17), Michael (18), Laura (20), and now Ida. And I’m not sure we’re done this season…

I know bud. Never looked at it any other way Now, let’s get a big remnant event up here

May have maxed out now but I’m on mobile

I’m on the road (NOT IN LA ) so I’m just trying to follow wherever I can.

So many people whined yesterday when they only saw a 2mb an hour drop…the gradual organization was just setting the stage for overnight. Intensification is a process, and this is about as impressive a period of RI as you’ll ever see.

Should be a number of them down there. Will hate to miss this one but the calendar just didn’t work for me this time.

Setting the O/U on the term “annular” being used at 3.5 hours. One of the most hilarious moments I’ve seen on AmWx

Here's the full VDM. As @Bostonseminole notes, the eye is closed and circular. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 21:40ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:13:29ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.13N 87.08WB. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (480 km) to the S (178°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,867m (9,406ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 225° at 10kts (From the SW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 21:07:15ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 91kts (From the SE at 104.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 21:06:07ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:18:16ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 297° at 63kts (From the WNW at 72.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:17:45ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 21:06:07Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SEC MAX FL WIND 75 KT BRNG:042 deg RNG:67 nm

Agree here. Would be good to see what the other quadrants look like.

970.4mb extrapolated pressure on the center pass. Unflagged 90kt FL wind and 79kt SFMR peak wind.

Recon is descending into the storm now, looking like they will do a NE to SW pass first.

Unlike Henri, where the guidance really struggled at the beginning and end, it’s really interesting how lockstep the guidance has been from pre-genesis to post landfall. They’ve even shifted in lockstep. Maybe it’s because of how dominant the ridge plays in the steering pattern. Verbatim the GFS and now euro have a legit remnants event this week.

BIG rain signal

Thanks everyone. Good turnout with 39 participants. Three late entries but nothing too late. Six participants forecasted maximum intensity above Cat 5 threshold Three participants forecasted maximum intensity below Cat 3 threshold Seven participants went with 125mph at landfall while 6 went with 150mph at landfall. 130mph was the median. The median pressure was 942mb Morgan City was the most popular landfall location (7) Good luck all!