WxWatcher007

Done, thanks. 94L is still plodding along but the model signal has cratered. With my peak season forecast period coming to a close in a few days I’m starting to get into non-tropical mode…

Makes sense with the MJO change. May have a last hurrah in early November but climo is rapidly moving away from tropical at this point.

33.5° here in EH is not bad at all.

NHC finally has a lemon on the area in the western Caribbean

Yeah—Cabo Verde (formerly known as Cape Verde) system. It’s very late for these kind of long track systems, though technically nothing has developed yet.

Islands need to watch but yeah, extremely difficult to have a CONUS CV this time of year.

Starting a thread because this is an invest and could have longer term potential. Originally, the signal for this tropical wave was quick development off the African coast before turning northwest in the open Atlantic. Development didn’t quite happen near the CV Islands, but under a sprawling Atlantic ridge the models now take this robust wave west where it may find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic or Caribbean. It’s unusual to have this kind of wave in mid October but here we are. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin/Konarik

Low of 35.2°. Had a low of 36° a few days ago.

Thanks. It does look like the eastern MDR is starting to close up shop on quick TCG now that climo shifts to the western part of the basin. That probably is one to watch a little closer now.

Maybe the fortunes on 94L are changing? This could be one that comes across the Atlantic.

Today was the first day I started looking past tropical and ahead to late fall. Not there yet, but it’s coming. Yeah, this has felt like a fall of yore to me. Pretty seasonable and dry. Only thing missing is a hybrid hurricane low lol.

Dodging ALL THE PEOPLE WITH LIGHTS was a lot, but I ended up with good stuff.

I did last night. Around 7:30pm with the mega burst—that moved slowly. Then late around 1am where you could see waves of light pulsing from north to south in real time. It was unbelievable.

What a night!

Walked out of an Albany restaurant after dinner with my wife and the sky had reds everywhere. It was unreal.

Absolutely spectacular

My peak season forecast is running out of time (Aug 20–Oct 20) and in the coming 10 days I think I have 2-3 more chances (two long shots) to get names on the board. 1. Western Caribbean, where the models led by the GFS have a signal for another system to potentially come out of a CAG or other vorticity seedling. This is the best chance for something else to pop imo before the lid goes back on the basin—probably until November. 2. Eastern Atlantic, where the NHC has a lemon but I don’t think TCG odds are good at all. 3. Eastern seaboard, where there’s a modest signal for some type of non-tropical low associated with a trough that could become subtropical. This has not worked at all this season, so I doubt it happens here.

My peak season forecast is running out of time (Aug 20–Oct 20) and in the coming 10 days I think I have 2-3 more chances (two long shots) to get names on the board. 1. Western Caribbean, where the models led by the GFS have a signal for another system to potentially come out of a CAG or other vorticity seedling. This is the best chance for something else to pop imo before the lid goes back on the basin—probably until November. 2. Eastern Atlantic, where the NHC has a lemon but I don’t think TCG odds are good at all. 3. Eastern seaboard, where there’s a modest signal for some type of non-tropical low associated with a trough that could become subtropical. This has not worked at all this season, so I doubt it happens here.

I agree with most of what you said, but I think I might respectfully disagree in part. I think that to an extent the higher surge was baked in. The expanse of it I think ended up lower geographically because the RMW ended up smaller and the specific landfall location to a lesser extent. There are examples of former upper echelon hurricanes bringing tremendous surge—Katrina obviously, but I think Ike and Opal are other examples. At its peak, here was the NHC surge forecast Of course the northern extent of this won’t verify but that’s because of landfall location and size. At this point, the NHC essentially had a Tampa hit: The NHC expects to find 9-13’ in the peak surge zone, verifying their peak surge forecast. I don’t like people speaking in absolutes in tropical, but I do think it was clear this was going to be one of the worst surge events for the west coast of Florida and in some spots that forecast looks to verify. Maybe we’re saying the same thing though lol

So close lol

Absolutely. Not necessarily the worst case given the surge in Tampa Bay, but very high impact. It’s only the…people that wanted to see Tampa get slabbed that will say it wasn’t too bad. I don’t like throwing out the “in my experience” stuff, but truly—16 tropical chases and in 12 of them (I checked lol) I felt the landfall point didn’t reveal itself until the final hours. Heck, NHC has said so too with the 20nm error rate in the last 12-24 hours. It’s almost always close if you care about exact landfall point (and most shouldn’t).

Pretty surprised there aren’t more surge monitors along the coast, but the final numbers will be sorted out. It still looks to me like a very high impact major Hurricane from the limited information I’ve seen—from surge at the coast, to wind speed/duration St Petersburg east across the peninsula, to exceptional rainfall, and a prolific tornado outbreak. For me and my forecast—too far north with the track but still in the zone I guess. Intensity was about what I expected. Glad I kept talking about the rain potential because that ended up bad. Hopefully the region can get back on its feet soon.