WxWatcher007

Foliage is a northeast staple lol, when it’s done right it’s about as awe inspiring as any wx event. (Not taken this year)

It took time here in the valley but I’d say this is an above average foliage year. There are plenty of dull spots, but also plenty of trees where the color is legit spectacular—if only for a few days.

With more coming

I say it all the time—a bona fide hurricane would be catastrophic. But sell a November hurricane breaking the 33 year hurricane drought in New England.

Low of 40.6°, high of 81.8°. Summery day.

How long until landfall?

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar. After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center, with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily in the northern semicircle. Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter, as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence. The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions. SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today, small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on Sunday. 3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Unless there’s another surprise this will be my final result. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (10) Hurricanes: 10 (7) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine, Oscar (H)

Really incredible turn of events.

Very good job by the GFS imo.

It’s a pretty incredible miss all around imo. This looked like at TC last night imo. Satellite derived winds may have had trouble seeing the small circulation.

Oscar in the brink of becoming a hurricane

2/3 of my highlighted areas on Oct 10 ain’t too shabby. NHC completely whiffed on Oscar. Damn near has an eyewall this morning. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (10) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine, Oscar

Amazing

Took a long time, but that western Caribbean area produced. Big win for the GFS. The other invest that started in the eastern Atlantic is looking good too. Might get another short lived one before the forecast period ends. Interesting that my NS/H/MH proportions are spot on. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (9) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (MH), Nadine

I need an ASCAT lol. This isn’t a TC?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before dissipating on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95): Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Low of 31.0°

That would be a genesis win for the model, considering how everyone wrote off the signal it’s had for quite a while now.

Not quite time to shut down, but we’re almost there.

Across the river I hit a low of 30.3°. We freeze.