bristolri_wx

I was trying to avoid going there, but, it's definitely a factor, but not the only factor. I'm trying not to derail the thread...

Unfortunately there's been a general downward trend in the quality of AFD's. I think it's a combination of a lot of younger talent at BOX and organizational changes from above. In the past when a warning level storm was brewing, AFD's would come out more often as data rolled in. Now they only follow the schedule of 3 or 4 per day and sometimes the changes are very minor. It's sad, IMO, they used to be great reads in most cases, and very educational.

If things stay true, will likely be officially a blizzard at some of the recording sites... 50-75 Knot winds at 925mb from 2AM - 8PM on Monday. That's enough to get the mix downs to 35 MPH at the surface. Jeesh...

NBM QPF Trend...

Thank you for your service.

Snowing pretty hard in Providence. Starting to stick. Was expecting rain, so not sure when the switchover is supposed to happen. Seems like we may have already gotten more snow than expected...

I don’t think so. They realized the one they were going to put into production was bad. The MPAS versions are already scoring better verifications….

Let's not get too excited. We've seen this before this winter, even when it's this close. Let's get two or three runs in a row for a trend. Promising though... I continue to feel like as the resolution of the global models increases there have been increases in error in this type of forecasting of what happens with the sensible weather at the surface, as the input data points have not increased as significantly as the model resolution. Just an opinion from a curious, but somewhat ignorant, model and weather enthusiast.

Leave at 5 or 6 AM. You will hit snow rather than ZR at the end of your in trip in NYS, at least if the HRRR is true. 18z NAM is a little slower with the snow/sleet/ice.

It is not a good model... sell...

That was the joke - Jerimoth is RI's Mount Washington. I believe Mt. Jefferson is the second or third highest mountain in NH.

Haven't seen the ARPEGE mentioned here in a while since the Euro maps were made more freely available, lol.

630 Feet! That's like the RI equivalent of Mt Jefferson.

The ensembles show this - some moderation and then another cool down in early March with a favorable 500 mb setup for some storminess. Not sure why anyone would see the “back broken” or a long term below normal temps. It’s neither, which is the type of pattern that is more likely to get us a bigger storm than the other two.

The best part of waking up…

The snow would have been good. But the models lost it somehow.

It does seem to have gotten a little crazy in here. At least from my perspective, it's been a good winter. It's been cold, it's snowed, and we've had snow pack for weeks. In East Bay RI that's a rarity, compared to other parts of New England. It will be a little disappointing if we don't get another decent storm before things wind down, but putting things in perspective, it's been the best winter in 10 years here, even if we didn't get a truly big storm between now and when spring truly arrives. As for the next few weeks there will be chances based on the ensembles, but chances are better off away from the coastal plain. Nothing new for this time of the year. As long as we have cold nearby there's chances something will work out, and thankfully Canada has been helpful with their cold exports this year compared to the last few winters.

When Keeping It Real Goes Wrong (like this thread)

Ugh these maps are terrible... I'd rather see 384 hour op run blizzards and torches.

That map could verify with +1 departures and another foot of snow on the ground. Junk!

I think about 4.5” here. Bristol was on the edge of that band for a few hours before it finally rotated east. A nice fresh coat of white paint.

Large heavy cotton balls falling out of the sky here. Heaviest stuff so far!

Your facts are truthful but your tone is frigging annoying AF. Also heavier stuff is moving east through RI now. This system was always advertised as a winner/loser scenario, with narrow bands of very good snow growth, with mostly meh everywhere else, and the type of stuff that isn't modeled well. Enjoy what you have, this winter has been 10 times better than the last several in RI!!!

Congrats Albuquerque?

There will be another relaxation. It makes sense. It would be harder for one not for one to occur... patterns only last so long in our area.