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bristolri_wx

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Everything posted by bristolri_wx

  1. bristolri_wx
    Gotta remember that the HRRR is a good short range model. The extended runs have a greater margin of error in general than other models 48 hours out. If they scored better in the extended range, then the NAM's would have been shut down a while back. Doesn't mean the HRRR is wrong, but take it with a grain of salt.
  2. bristolri_wx
    Light flurries, 35. Wind has picked up noticeably in last hour.
  3. bristolri_wx
    We like our emergencies civil here in RI.
  4. bristolri_wx
    Things got real here got a real emergency alert EAS tones and all on my phone for the Blizzard Warning. Don’t get these often.
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  6. bristolri_wx
    I find that they are usually a little overdone on the snowfall output. Trim the PMM numbers by 10-15% and usually have sensible weather.
  7. bristolri_wx
    Yeah seems like noise and locked into a track at this point.
  8. bristolri_wx
    I believe this is the only way you can easily get some sort of output from Google’s WeatherNext 2 model, but this definitely looks fun…
  9. bristolri_wx
    This would be nice, even if it was only 12 hour forecast!
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  11. bristolri_wx
    This site also has the updated MPAS version of the RRFS they are working on, and a nicer view of the HREF's (attached). It's a cool site.
  12. bristolri_wx
    I feel like some of those models are specifically geared towards ensemble forecasts. You never hear about the NMM or ARW being used on their own as operational runs in forecast discussion.
  13. bristolri_wx
    Only one that I can see that's specific to this storm. Not sure if the one out in the Pacific is going to be adding anything.
  14. bristolri_wx
    ?
  15. bristolri_wx
    You may need to purchase a larger computer monitor.
  16. bristolri_wx
    I wouldn't be too concerned about the GFS unless it goes further SE at 12z: All the models should have more data soon they are flying though it right now and the mission is still ongoing: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF302-10WSA-TRACK62
  17. bristolri_wx
    National Weenie Service high end 10% probability map. (just realized @Baroclinic Zonebeat me to it)
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  19. bristolri_wx
    Yeah, not trying to spam the forum with maps. Just points of comparison - those seem to be recently updated in the last couple of hours. Some other sites are still showing maps from this morning...
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  24. bristolri_wx
    I feel like the Euro holding back is the cause. It's always hard to fully commit to the GFS. Blending the two gets you that number right now.
  25. bristolri_wx
    Looks like they are planning to run hurricane hunter recon all weekend to get extra data for the storm as it's forming. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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