bristolri_wx

BOX 6:45 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 645 AM update... Very impressive satellite imagery this morning, with half wavelength shortening between trough and downstream ridge, as trough begins to take on a negative tilt. Forecast remains on track, with moderate snow overspreading eastern CT-RI and eastern MA, with snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour. Winds have really cranked upward the past hour, with PVC G50 kt/58 mph the past hour! Still expecting the heaviest snow with hourly rates of 2-4" per hour at times along with strongest winds up to 65-75 mph between 9 am and 4 pm. Rain has flipped over to all snow now across Nantucket and the outer Cape. Although this will be a heavy wet snow, including coastal Plymouth county and increase the threat of tree damage and power outages. Earlier discussion below.

3-4” here tough to judge drifts everywhere.

Canadian and Uncle are meh. Slightly less QPF otherwise the same distribution pattern as their previous runs...

Slight improvement on the 03z RAP, especially in eastern areas. That seems to be the trend, slight increases in QPF east of the CT River...

Yeah... actually a mixed bag. QPF is up a little east and down a little west...

03z HRRR looks to be improving again too...

If the trends continue... maybe... it didn't chase NE nearly as much as the previous run.

Not great for western areas but it's slightly west from last run and much better than CMC/RGEM guidance... it is what it is...

The Canadian Herpes is coming in west. Really slows down east of the cape between hours 16-20

GFS a little west, but not enough to make much of a difference.

Yeah RGEM continues to look out to sea (and lunch).

Light snow sticking, 30 here. Had this hanging around, figured it was time to partake. Bottoms up and enjoy the storm.

Even if RI gets a snow hole, I doubt there will be less than 12” anywhere state wide when it’s done. Good luck!

Light Snow for last 30 minutes. 31 here.

Just took the dog for a walk to get his business done. Took twice as long as usual walked almost over a mile round trip to get it done. If that’s not a sign we are in for a big one tonight and tomorrow, I don’t know what else would be.

I dunno - the latent heat release might make it chase the convection caused by it.

Just because I know this post is factual doesn’t mean I have to like it.

I just had to chug an IPA as I had Buoy 41002 in the “Blizzard of ‘22” drinking game.

I’m still skeptical on that. It would need to really be the perfect conditions. 12-15 to 1 is a more reasonable expectation and you still get a dumping of snow with that.

FYC… Sorry I see what you did there to my post. FV3 has had the toughest time…

FV3 based models have had a tough time with this one…

I’ve already called every airline in the US and homeland security to mark you with a cannot fly tag. Seriously the only time our forecast goes to shit is when you start planning to come back to RI. You cancelled your plans and suddenly the models improve again. STAY IN LA!

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The community here is incredible, and I learn a little more with every storm. Plus the humor and drama can’t be topped. I lurked a while before joining, and then lurked more before easing myself posting, and now this place is part of my daily routine, especially during the active weather months. So thanks to everyone who makes that possible here, regardless of storm outcomes. Now back to our regularly scheduled bi-polar model reaction, already in progress.

A forecast needs to be issued. Some of the stuff came in while they were probably issuing the forecast. For newscasters, they will have another model cycle before 11 pm to look at, as well as Radar and satellite. They will probably issue updated forecasts this evening if trends continue and actual weather conditions warrant it.

Models aren’t perfect as they are programmed by humans.