hudsonvalley21

Million dollar question is how far does it go due north? HRRR model has it going northeast.

4.8” here. We’re in one of the heavy bands, I’m on the northern end of it.

Was just going to post this.

It’s all about where the banding sets up. You could still be in the game, we’ll see.

Could be why they extend the blizzard warnings northward into ulster and dutchess counties

I’m also in agreement. My thoughts are on oragraphic lifting. Once the push off the ocean interacts with the mountains and the winds from the north, it will squeeze out moisture and dump it there.

I could work out as some storms in the past where the east side of the county does better. All depends on the CCB bands on where they set up and orographic lifting. Anything is on the table. Nowcasting time.

Orographic lifting to the extreme

NYC 18.9 LGA 19.7 ISP 26.2 JFK 23.7 EWR 24.4

SPC AC 211725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday.

Lost my mother in August and my mother in law last month. I know how you are feeling.

I remember that on Eastern weather

Sorry for your loss. I’m sure she is watching from above and saying the same thing. Keep doing it in her honor.

Wow. CCB death bands will be impressive.

Totally agree. Just not because of the snow amounts, the wind will definitely make it more hazardous.

Thanks for starting the thread

Really digging down

WOW Could it tuck in any further?

A bunch of members on the western side

Recon information is inputted. I think there is some more info to be put in yet. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs coming up.

Almost as bad as yelling “fire” in a movie theater.

NOUS42 KNHC 181734 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1235 PM EST WED 18 FEBRUARY 2026 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026 WSPOD NUMBER.....25-080 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 78 A. 20/0000Z B. AFXXX 10WSC IOP34 C. 19/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 25.0N 180.0W, 40.0N 180.0W, 40.0N 160.0W, AND 25.0N 160.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 19/2030Z TO 20/0230Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 22/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ KAL

Recon flights might give a better answer in tomorrow runs NOUS42 KNHC 171825 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0125 PM EST TUE 17 FEBRUARY 2026 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026 WSPOD NUMBER.....25-079 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 A. 18/1800Z, 19/0000Z B. AFXXX 33WSE IOP33 C. 18/1700Z D. 8 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 25.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 125.0W, AND 25.0N 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1430Z TO 19/0230Z 2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49 A. 19/0000Z B. NOAA9 34WSE IOP33 C. 18/2000Z D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 150.0W, 48.0N 150.0W, AND 48.0N 125.0W E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 18/2030Z TO 19/0230Z 3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 20/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 5. REMARK: THE NOAA 49 MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 25-078 FOR THE 18/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL NOT FLY. (AMENDMENT) $$ KAL

Makes total sense. My thoughts are the 12z runs Thursday will be honing in and hopefully there will be model consensus.

Dusting here.