hudsonvalley21

Funny how it’s showing rain on the backside

Borrowed from the New England thread,

Thanks Don

Nice write up. It will be interesting when the short range models such as the HRRR and HRDPS are in range.

Don, does it have estimates for other locations inland such as KSWF?

And a general 2-3” of QPF thru 274 hours. And as we know this will flip flop like a fish out of water for the next runs. Some better sampling in the next few days will get a better read.

Same here. Also heard that the speed was reduced on the Newburgh-Beacon bridge and it was treated for icy conditions.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.3 2.1 1.6 1.1 -0.4

1.26” was the total in the Davis for the event. A dusting of ice pellets this morning here. I see that up on Storm king at 700-1000’ it was snow covered. Not sure what was actually accumulated tho.

34 here with just plain light rain. Had a mixed bag about an hour ago during the heavier precipitation at 125’ of elevation. 1.01” in the Davis so far in precipitation.

34 here with just plain light rain. Had a mixed bag about an hour ago during the heavier precipitation at 125’ of elevation. 1.01” in the Davis so far in precipitation.

18z NAM held ground from the 12z run

I feel the same way. I’d be happy seeing white rain. The 12z NAM kicked up it’s totals. I’d wait a few more runs maybe by 18z tomorrow we’ll see how things are trending.

Thanks Walt for the heads up. OKX mentions the possibility of the wintery mix for us folks inland in their AFD. A section of Upton’s is below. Thermal profiles look just warm enough such that anything that falls Tuesday morning is probably rain. After some wet-bulbing, precip type gets tricky starting in the afternoon in addition to an elevated warm layer pushing in from the SW. Further complicating the forecast is a period of potential low level cold advection over the eastern zones during the night as the stationary front sags south and winds flip NE to E. Won`t go into details, but currently have chances of freezing rain, sleet and snow for inland areas. Rain elsewhere

Maybe NWS can create a new advisory for those snowbirds down there.

14 here currently. Point and click forecast here is for low of 17.

2.5” here. The low got going too late to throw back additional moisture. The radar this afternoon almost looked like we got dry slotted. Mostly all snow up this way. Currently 23/12 edit: dropped off to 19/9 in the last hour.

Just starting here. 25/14.

That’s colder than Mt. Washingtons low temperature.

There is some information and photos of calls on this Facebook account for Orange and Rockland fire.

2.53” in the Davis. Draining the pool again. No damage or power loss last night. I’m sure there are some not as lucky as me.

2.12” as of 11:00 pm

A section of Upton’s AFD LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... *Key Points* * A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are increasingly likely with this system. See hydrology section below. * Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also possible. A major storm system will impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain and both river and coastal flooding. Models have been in good overall agreement for sometime now in taking a strengthening low northward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, sending a strong frontal system into the region. Deep-layered lift with the potential for record breaking PWAT values (1.25-1.40"), is setting the stage for heavy rainfall to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates for about a 6-h timeframe will be between 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with locally higher rates possible. This will result in a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. A strong SE flow will likely enhance orographic lift for areas west of NYC up into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. NBM probabilities for greater than 2 inches are near 100 percent with much of the area greater than 50 percent for exceeding 3 inches. In addition, snowpack across portions of the area may include up to an inch liquid equivalent. This combined with saturated soils, high streamflow, and low FFG, points to the greatest potential of widespread flooding across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. WPC also has placed this area under a Moderate Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Many of the faster responding streams and rivers across this area will likely go into flood with these forecast rainfall amounts. Several river forecast points are also forecast to reach moderate benchmarks. Thus, a Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. There will likely be refinement and expansion of these areas in coming days. The heaviest rains will then exit the area by daybreak Wednesday with some lingering rain possible as the upper low/trough move through the area. Another potential hazard will be high winds, especially along the coasts with SE gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. A high wind watch has been issued for LI and may very well need to be expanded to the CT coast in later forecasts. Elsewhere, Wind Advisory level winds are possible elsewhere. At this time, used a blend of the NBM and NBMexp which seemed to best represent the wind and gust potential based on model soundings.