hudsonvalley21

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I84 don't look too far ahead.  Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2").  Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs.  NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue.

Thanks Walt, something to keep an eye on. 
 

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Did you fill Santa in on this?
Agreed, a big ‘IF’ that far out. 

I think he did.

13 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

What’s everyone throwing on the grill for Christmas this year?

I’ll see if I can shovel it out  

0.63” here, light rain currently. 36/35

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.6         0.5        0.2        0.2       0.7      1.0          0.2      0.9        0.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

17”       21”       28”       26”      24”    102”     51”       4”    84”

1 hour ago, snywx said:

Checked the board an hour ago and measured 4”. Elevation dependent is an understatement. I would say at 500’ you have a general 2-3” but above 1000’ there is 10+. I-84 from Middletown to port jervis is shut down. Greenville mtn is getting hammered. Buddy measured 12” up there at 1200’

Just a dusting here at 125’ in elevation. Had 1.22” yesterday in precipitation. 1.17” since midnight today. So 2.39 in the Davis. I wonder if at the top of Storm King mtn. at 1,220’ has the 12” there too.

NJZ002-NYZ067>070-221200- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.241122T0000Z-241122T1500Z/ Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 326 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations will be highly elevation dependent. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches at elevations above 500 feet, with the highest amounts above 1000 feet. Elsewhere, accumulations will likely be less than 2 inches. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. The heaviest snow will likely fall between 11 PM and 6 AM. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. Isolated tree damage and power outages are possible due to heavy wet snow load.

Just now, snywx said:

I was strictly referring to orange W of the walkill River. Areas like Otisville, Mount Hope, Port Jervis, Greenville Mtn area are mostly above 750’ and far enough W to benefit 

The elevation is key with this event.

Upton’s thoughts, A section of their AFD

CAMs and regional models have diverged somewhat on the position of the movement of the low tonight. Some of the CAMs bring the center of the low just north of our area and a little to the east into the early night before having it retrograde to our west in Upstate New York while other just stick with tracking the low to our northwest. The more northeasterly track, regardless will only occur this evening into early tonight before bumping west. With the low tracking north of us this evening, cooler air will take over this evening with temperatures near or below freezing in interior locations north and west of NYC. Prior to this, temperatures will be in the 40s. A transition from rain to snow is expected this evening for interior areas north and west of NYC, but given the warm temperatures prior, snowfall may struggle to accumulate. Its possible we could see a few heavy bands of snow with snowfall rates around 1-2"/hr this evening into early tonight indicated by the 00Z HREF and a saturated dendritic growth zone before the precip gets cut off by a dry pocket of air that moves in when the low retrogrades westward into upstate New York. This dry air is easiest to see when looking at model soundings or at model 700 mb relative humidity. Higher elevations in interior locations northwest of NYC will most likely see accumulations of 1-4 inches. Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties are now highlighted in the HWO for this potential. However, most of the interior northwest of NYC is at lower elevation and only a trace to 0.5" is expected due to warmer ground melting the snow and a short window for snow banding before the precip becomes much lighter from dry air intrusion. Snow ratios are also expected to be on the low side, further contributing to lower snow accumulations compared to what some of the CAMs are producing with 10:1 Snowfall.

A section of Upton’s AFD,

CAMs and regional models have diverged somewhat on the position of the movement of the low tonight. Some of the CAMs bring the center of the low just north of our area and a little to the east into the early night before having it retrograde to our west in Upstate New York while other just stick with tracking the low to our northwest. The more northeasterly track, regardless will only occur this evening into early tonight before bumping west. With the low tracking north of us this evening, cooler air will take over this evening with temperatures near or below freezing in interior locations north and west of NYC. Prior to this, temperatures will be in the 40s. A transition from rain to snow is expected this evening for interior areas north and west of NYC, but given the warm temperatures prior, snowfall may struggle to accumulate. Its possible we could see a few heavy bands of snow with snowfall rates around 1-2"/hr this evening into early tonight indicated by the 00Z HREF and a saturated dendritic growth zone before the precip gets cut off by a dry pocket of air that moves in when the low retrogrades westward into upstate New York. This dry air is easiest to see when looking at model soundings or at model 700 mb relative humidity. Higher elevations in interior locations northwest of NYC will most likely see accumulations of 1-4 inches. Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties are now highlighted in the HWO for this potential. However, most of the interior northwest of NYC is at lower elevation and only a trace to 0.5" is expected due to warmer ground melting the snow and a short window for snow banding before the precip becomes much lighter from dry air intrusion. Snow ratios are also expected to be on the low side, further contributing to lower snow accumulations compared to what some of the CAMs are producing with 10:1 Snowfall.

.93   45/43.  Light rain currently.

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

Definitely possible. Up this way we had snow around Halloween a few years ago. Huge change from 7 days ago. Great help for the brush fires and the reservoirs.

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Waiting for the wdrag Black Friday snow thread 

 

 

As of the 18z run, it’s just under 200 hours out. Subject to change as usual.

 

47 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

Sure Walt, start a thread.  Concerned about flooding, runoff with the hard ground an a good amount of QPF in a short time.

4 hours ago, Hitman said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  A decent soaking to tamp down the fires before dreaming of a snowy december.

Absolutely, either rain,snow,or white rain, as long as it’s not a heavy short timed event. A slow soaking would be great to soften up the bone dry hard surface.  1-2” of QPF as of todays 18z runs thru Friday is great. Hopefully they hold serve.

A section of Upton’s AFD

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models in good agreement with an anomalously deep closed upper low (2-3 standard deviations below normal heights) digging into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Wed Night into Thu, lifting into the NE US on Friday, and then stalling over the NE US into the weekend. Global models have trended over the past 24 hours with a weaker surface low development over the Great Lakes and a stronger secondary low taking shape right over us late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will therefore be the period when rainfall chances will be at the highest. Can`t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm with the strengthening low center passing through coinciding with a little elevated instability. NBM probability of 1+ inches of rain Weds night through Thursday has increased to 30-50%, with deterministic models in pretty good agreement that we pick up 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain during this time.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

No houses lost last night, great job. 

Let’s hope the rain will come in Wednesday night. Yup,  Excellent job in Greenwood Lake last night. 

15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I was surprised as well. There are definitely issues with fires in the ground as it's been so dry. The photos I've seen this evening on social media, which can be tricky because of exposure time, show lots of fire moving north, south, and west, which is also crazy to me. I'm guessing the air tankers were just rumors this week because I've seen nothing about them in operation. 

With the fires jumping and moving and moving in several directions could be from underneath spread and elevation changes. They called a couple of Rockland County units in tonight as well. I believe that the evacuation became mandatory from previously being voluntary in one area. Also haven’t heard of the air tankers arriving also. The water drops of 350 gallons each take care of the surface but don’t penetrate far into the ground.

44 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not a good evening in Greenwood Lake as the fire jumped the line. There are evacuations and an urgent request went out for any local fuel company that can refuel an engine that's on the fire line protecting homes. 

I’m kind of surprised that it jumped the line. Not sure what the winds are down there currently, winds were around 10-15 most of the day IMBY. Could be possible that it’s burning under ground and popped up past the back burn areas, only speculating. Haven’t seen any recent videos from the area. Hopefully they can keep ahead of it.

.01

6 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Half of rockland sent engine companies up to greenwood lake tonight. The rain is so close but even then prob not enough, would slow it down though.

Yup with the rockland companies covering for structure protection. Every Orange County department has been requested to send available manpower and equipment. Everyone is stretched thin currently. Hopefully the rain can knock down some tonight before the wind shift tomorrow and forecast winds to be 10-15.

https://www.facebook.com/FDWCompound/posts/pfbid04yZfZcPruTDnsgTVTiSkrWCtUMVnDDLqaMm5LGG6h4pAUGS9N6u4n137JsDNqKGPl?__cft__[0]=AZVfJZ6ILcPRXS9hdXWROTwGicNTKxhH887DRP822S7eLotd1JJXhp5rD1a8QY9yDmdGUil2agt5oS803RYLoK8X6he8V-LSZxKWuHkNmZXR2gAeY8FmKDLgNI3TeHe6_AeaWvbF_sBjP2loNjtEKd53euPEnVuFNr0KRQSrmdTVxmYJmyZ-bufIy53ojHQjAZXLJfQtTfzeWGwJR7T_w7fWyw_xvQ4W99w_H8WpYMRQ_A&__tn__=-UK-R

7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Whatever rain it is can't get here fast enough with the region burning. 

So far the rain is very light. Only a trace here so far as of 7pm. The fire at Greenwood Lake had me smoke and some light ash. A far cry from folks living in that region. 3,000 acres burned so far with 10% containment and 1 loss of life from a firefighter  . Thoughts and prayers and hopefully some  desperately needed rain.

https://www.facebook.com/NJForestFireService/posts/pfbid05iNfd4FWprJdQ3HCdBcSyY27Ka9efCdLiTaCvLQE9c3234Qct6TzwfHXEmXWpDD5l?__cft__[0]=AZWDDsHVPLbd3-nWn3Q0SOEjTjQFwEFkMRGBce6SeZHEQzVbHLCZgD_DF5e4Ex63WyX0Q-qhB-qpJYteb_9MWvA0lyqkWv_d4zRKhodoQGdUG-4z46QqhjwdDzTy2HL3X6IlFj5Cv992BbHVPJNLz_DkT9xgANWNaNEqEceMiTmwQEHQgvFmNEyt5Pq1jf9SoZVQaPs93R_r11hULdwlVbI_JhVXuejKihV6cLrQ0Da3BQ&__tn__=-UK-R

30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Sunset over two and a half hours ago on Nov 6 and it just dropped to 70. Just plain stupid. 

Nice day to go to the beach.

19 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Sunset over two and a half hours ago on Nov 6 and it just dropped to 70. Just plain stupid. 

Agree, I was raking leaves in shorts and sweating today. It just ain’t right.