hudsonvalley21

Nice AFD from Upton,

X

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday
afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and
lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds
from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week
with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This
frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Key Points***

1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N
Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index
values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ.
All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices
peak between 98-100F.

2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop
this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western
locations.

A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of
the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front
approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight.
This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north
which weakens through tonight.

First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east
late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially
INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny
conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500
J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and
subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct
showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western
half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk
shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some
consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms,
mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more
favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so
while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances
are it won`t reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm,
most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared
out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy
fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas,
but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight
lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.

Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening.
PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and
storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong
enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur,
there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at
mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential.

Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual
highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W
of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s
with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs.
Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co,
Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could
reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All
other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak
between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to
SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should
this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be
more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but
for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.

0.38 around 6pm yesterday and 1.15” this morning for a total of 1.53” in 12 hours. Great for the garden. Had a dew pt. of 77 last night. Definitely Florida like conditions.

DCA: +4.3

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.9

ORD: +2.4

ATL: +2.6

IAH: +2.2

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +2.3

SEA: +0.7

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That storm was pretty legit here, power out, a number of branches down but no damage or wires down around my house. 

Glad to hear no damage, hopefully you get the power back on soon. 0.51” in the bucket. My Daughter is by Craigsville rd and luckily did not loose power. 

A photo from Facebook near Lego Land in Orange County 

Had gusts to 40+. Not much in thunder and a moderate rain.

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Slight risk expanded into SNE.

...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. 
   This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into
   the northeast states tonight.  Ahead of the system, strong heating
   is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic
   region and southern New England.  A diffuse surface boundary extends
   from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to
   rise into the 80s/90s to the south.  This will result in an
   environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for
   scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
   storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread
   eastward through the day.  Damaging winds appear to be the main
   concern.  Storms may track across southern New England and to the
   NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat.

They put the 2% tor risk back in.

12 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Third round was another .5 bringing the total for the day to 1.3. 

Had a total of 0.71 here.

48 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Playing Mansion Ridge thursday afternoon. Im gonna look like patrick ewing in a playoff game. 

You might sweat more 

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

We went to the Renegades game yesterday and saw those huge patches of a good chunk of the whole valley chewed up. 

48 for the low here this morning. 

Temps dropped off quickly last night. I was at the Fair oaks drive-in, it was 73 at 8:00 and dropped  of to 59 by 11:30.  Bottomed out to 54 IMBY.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

That could be the dead ash trees from the emerald ash borer too, I saw a lot of those along that stretch last summer. I was out in western Orange County last weekend and the hillsides along 84 had lots of bare spots from the caterpillars. I’ve heard the New England guys talk about this for a couple years and now I see it in person it’s no joke. 
 

Up to .23” on the day with rain still falling. 

0.49” will do it here.

39 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Around here the radar is more impressive looking than what's actually falling thus far. 

Agree, 0.21” in the bucket from the first line.

7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It started with the smaller trees near me, now there are numerous fully grown huge oaks completely bare. The maples and others are getting chomped up too but at least IMBY the oaks are the worst.

Even looking at Mount Beacon from Newburgh’s water front, there’s large patches completely stripped. Large numbers of those leaf eaters this year. 

15 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Pretty odd looking at trees bare like December in such a high sun angle. 

Those suckers had a field day around West Point. A bunch of trees stripped.

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This round of showers may end up being too strong and screw things up for later. 3km NAM I think is on that idea happening. 

Had a quick shower here around 9am. Still under a heavy cloud deck currently.

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s go 

And the HRDPS at 5 pm. Most of the other mesoscale models are showing activity at that time. Had a quick shower around 9 am, still a heavy cloud deck up this way currently.

On 6/6/2024 at 5:29 PM, Roger Smith said:

 

Table of forecasts for June 2024

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 

Scotty Lightning ___________+3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

BKViking ___________________+2.2 _ +2.3 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.0

RJay __________ (-2%) ______+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

rainsucks __________________ +2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.3

Rhino16 ____________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +3.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.1 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+1.5 

Roger Smith _______________ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 __ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 _+1.2

Tom ________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __ +0.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.8 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +0.6

___ Consensus ____________ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 ___+1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.2 __ +2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.5

so_whats_happening ______ +0.6 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

DonSutherland1 ____________+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +0.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

wxallannj ___________________+0.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +2.3 __ +1.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.5

RodneyS ____________________ 0.0 _ +1.1 _ +0.3 __ -1.8 _ -0.5 _ +0.9 ___ +1.6 _ +0.6 _ +0.6

StormchaserChuck1 ________ 0.0 _ +0.2 _ -0.3 __ -0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 ___ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +0.7

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxdude64 __________________-0.8 _-0.2 _ +0.7 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _ +0.5 ___ +2.1 _ +1.7 _ +2.1

________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA 

==============

 

Seasonal max contest

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 

Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92

wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98

Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97

rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99

Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98

DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97

___ Consensus _____________101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 99 ___101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97  

Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96

RJay _______________________ 100 __ 98 _ 100 ___100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 95 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97

wxallannj __________________ 98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 120 __ 95

 

(not entered yet? you can post seasonal max to June 15 _ any of above can also be edited to June 15)

Will add consensus values June 16

Hi Rodger, I added my seasonal maxes. Thanks for all you do!

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

0.00 here, did have a very light sprinkle about an hour ago. Heavy chewed leaf and caterpillar poop though.

The Tent Caterpillar showing this year is the largest I’ve seen in the last few years. See a bunch of crabapple trees stripped throughout the area.

The HRRR is showing a few showers moving thru later this afternoon and early evening, hopefully it will wash some of that poop away.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Coldest day in years forecasted here...

Thank goodness I only got 0.04” in the bucket. Saves me from shoveling the driveway 

0.04” here.

10 hours ago, gravitylover said:

.7

0.86 here.

DCA: +0.8  101

NYC: +1.2   101

BOS: +1.1     99

ORD: +0.3.   95

ATL: +1.6     98

IAH: +2.2.   103

DEN: +2.1    100

PHX: +1.4    119

SEA: +1.5     98

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I knew that cell went through Greenwood Lake but I didn't realize it was that bad. I do now after looking at the fire calls from this morning, at least one tree on a car and numerous trees on houses I saw after taking a quick glance. I dont recall seeing a request for that many UTVs before for something other than a brush fire. 

Orange County NY Fire Calls

Mutual Aid:

Monroe Fire - UTV

Warwick Fire - UTV

Chester Fire - UTV

Tuxedo Fire - UTV

Florida Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew)

South Blooming Grove Fire - UTV

Pine Island Fire - UTV

Woodbury Fire - UTV

Goshen Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew)

Cronomer Valley Fire - UTV

New Hampton Fire - UTV (Unable to Crew)

Salisbury Mills Fire - UTV

Johnson Fire - UTV

Sloatsburg Fire - 1 Engine to Standby 

36-1

36-3

36-15

36-16

Orange County Field Comm

47 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Just some light rain up here for the most part but there was one bolt of lightning that must have hit the tower at the top of the hill because the flash and crashing boom were at essentially the same time. It got my plague flowing for sure. 

Just some light rain and a few rumbles here with the first cell. It was a little rowdy in the Greenwood Lake area with some trees down, this one slid just to our south. We’ll see what happens with the second round of activity that’s on our doorstep.

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Should be fun on the fishing boat in thunderstorms with 60 10 year olds!

Hopefully they check the radar before heading out.