hudsonvalley21

WPC still bullish with the QPF totals for the next 7days.

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Flurries in the air again today so we should have four days in a row with snowflakes… be still my beating heart 

Rest that heart , it will get a workout soon  

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

So the latest Euro showing 3.5-4.5" of QPF for both storms by next Wednesday...

Hopefully we get enough snow from the 1st event to absorb the rain from the 2nd event to help lower the flooding risk.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I think we'll see some snow at the start but that storm has cutter written all over it.  We'll see what happens though.  The 12z GFS got more interesting for this weekend, so we'll see if the other models start getting stronger as well of if it was a fluke GFS run.

Much more interesting the 12z vs. the 06z. Could be that more sampling has been added. We’ll see what the 18z shows. 
 

12z NAM has bumped up QPF totals around the NYC area vs. the 06 runs.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Why would they talk about next week when we have a board of experts and enthusiasts that cant really tell us what will happen 2 days from now. We have already established that models are pretty variable outside 72 hours.

 

Next week may not happen at all. Certainly no way to tell if we have threatening floods until we are 2-3 days out, right? No reason for unwarranted hysteria.

 

This board would do well with that advice too

We’ll see how it evolves. If it is looking like a major event then they will be mentioning it Saturday night and Sunday during the first event right?

9 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The sad thing about this is the fact tv stations who have not been overly hyping this, rather holding fort with the "stay tuned as the situation unfolds and we learn more information" messaging is lost by the fact that social media is plastered with the snowiest model runs starting last weekend by the fakes.  Folks will once again say "where's my snow" without ever even listening to the on air mets, and instead say they were wrong again. 

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

My new sump pump backup battery arrives tomorrow.


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Good move. 
 

A good amount of QPF for the 2nd event from WPC’s thoughts.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The second system could really do some flooding damage with a couple inches of rain in a relatively short amount of time. 

Definitely has my attention especially up this way. The flooding/power loss potential I hope doesn’t come to fruition. After the first system comes thru will see what the models show for the 2nd one. Who knows, we could get a good front end thump of snow with #2. That could help with some rain absorption with this weekends snow. 

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


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With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. 

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


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The QPF for the 2nd event is around 1”-2”. Hopefully we won’t have many issues. Fingers crossed.

Thank you Rodger for all the time and diligence you put into this contest. It is greatly appreciated. 

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm with you on that, the 12z GFS flips the bird to folks wanting snow around here. The Canadian looks a bit different than the GFS. One run with lots to go but clearly nothing should be locked up in either direction six days out. 

I think the flooding potential might be more impactful vs.the snowfall. Especially if we get a good amount of QPF from both events.

Happy New Years to all. 

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

And as Walt Drag just mentioned, there is another system on its heels to contend with.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Need the 50 50 to hold 

Talking about  a different 50. 50 miles of a shift in any direction would make a huge difference in what this run shows. I hate being in the bullseye this far out. That 50 50 low is key.

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Tree branches with wounds have soaked up water and are soggy, a little freeze and a little breeze and they're coming down. Will they fall on your house or the cars in your driveway? Better go take a look and do something about it before next weekend. Driving around this afternoon I saw a bunch of water still coming out of hillsides and storm drains at the bottom of valleys so it's obvious that we're saturated. That's gonna be a lot of ice as the new moisture runs off so if your driveway is like mine be prepared, go get some sand. The couple of dry days coming up won't do squat to help especially if the surface freezes at night. Hoping for not too cold and not too windy.

Agree with you. The aftermath from these events could be equally as bad as the duration of the events. Sand, salt, sump pumps, and chainsaws may  be needed. Especially if we get some snowpaste and winds. Being prepared is key.  The 18z GFS is showing a 24 hour event for the Sunday show.

48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. People are so focused on the lack of snow I think many are missing the flood potential that Walt also mentioned in the thread title. With each storm the Wallkill drops just a bit less than before. It may not seem like a big deal but that combined with the saturated soil that still has plenty of fresh ponds/puddles that last longer and longer...not a good combo. I was kinda surprised at the amount of standing water still out there around town this morning. 

Not a good situation at all. With the runoff still going on and the next events on the horizon possibly being wintery, the roads will be hazardous in spots for some time. 

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Modeling: It's getting better if we can talk generalities a week in advance and be reasonably accurate.  Still... two big storms within 3-4 days... not common around here, especially if snow. My caution is stick with ensembles.  AND... please if you can... don't use 10-1 snowfall unless we're within 48 hours and you think it ill be all snow.  We're better off using conservative numbers for our area (positive snow depth c change via Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal()...especially since so close to the r/s line.  Warm thickness for the first storm has me worried about a narrow band of 6+ inch 32-33F wet snow - clinging to wires with power outages inland of I95 somewhere. just dont know where, if at all in our subforum. SST's are near normal today but warming along the coast from Wallops to Boston. 

So... it's at least a temporary enthusiastic opportunity, especially our I84 folks and maybe we can get some snow in the city. 

Thanks Walt, and as you mentioned earlier, the QPF amounts are also critical with the flooding potential.

10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

50/50 low is irrelevant to this storm's track in my opinion. What's important is where this storm develops. It's all about the timing/location of jet stream phasing. 12Z ECMWF similar to what GFS has been showing past couple runs:

I believe the phase would be better if it happens east of the Mississippi River.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another huge storm 

7th and 10th storm are huge on the euro

Well the models are all showing activity. Nice to see that agreement this far out. Clown maps are just weather porn for now. Hopefully there isn’t too much of an impact on flooding issues.

1 minute ago, cardinalland said:

traced the storms back to the present/hour 0 and they are still quite far away at present. don't know enough to determine how this impacts prediction, but wanted to share anyways

When the systems hit the west coast, there will be better sampling. Wait and see for a couple of days.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a crush job for our area

Nice too see if we were only a couple of days out. 
 

Just now, NEG NAO said:

how about the mid/late week event too ? Not sure how that is going to play out yet

Fire up one thread, maybe Walt Drag will start another.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The 4th wave becomes the 50 50 to lock in the cold air.