hudsonvalley21

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I was looking around yesterday at all the puddles in the fields, the water table is certainly up there these days.

It’s like a sponge out there. Went to the angry orchard last Sunday before this weeks rain and it was sloppy then. Was wondering if you have the monthly precip totals since October. Can’t remember when I had to drain the pool so many times vs. years before. 

13 hours ago, BxEngine said:

At least i timed my flight to the bahamas right, tmrw should be smooth sailing. Maybe my sump pump will finally stop running when i get back tues night 

Enjoy! Have a beverage for me 

24 minutes ago, snywx said:

Beautiful morning here

53 w/lots of sunshine 

51 here. Sun is breaking thru the thinning cloud deck.  1.31” in the Davis with the latest event. 

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice snow event on cmc

A couple of runs in a row. You never know   Long way to go tho.

For wxdude64

He posted this in the February thread.

Posting for March, just in case I can't 'computer' in a couple days lol

IF I can, may update before cutoff. Thanks

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +1.4

BOS:  +1.7

ORD:  +0.9

ATL: -0.4

IAH: -0.5

DEN:  -0.3

PHX: -0.8

SEA: +1.6

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

If i was off this weekend (and didnt have a wife n kids lol) id prob fly out there.  

Strongly agree.

DCA: +2.7

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +2.7

ATL: +1.3

IAH: +1.6

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +0.1

SEA: +0.3

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No one gives a rat’s ass or a Goddamn what that idiot thinks

16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

12.7 here for my final.

Most of Orange County NY was around a foot.

12.2” here.

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

12.7 inches for the final.

To call it an over performer would not do it justice, to call the models performance through the whole ordeal pathetic, would be kind.

Agree, a lot of hair pulling for the last couple of model runs.  I came in at 12.2”, nice to see some snow cover.

19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

10.5 inches, 2.5 the last hour.

heavy snow but not quite the intensity of the last hour.

Still hoping to make 12.

Same here 

9” OTG

9” OTG

7 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Also, center of circulation appears to be more in western third of Tennessee rather than eastern half depicted by 7:00 PM GFS and Euro modeling position.  

2hr pressure drop map

Just now, Yaz said:

I saw this also. So, I looked at the soundings over the suspiciously green areas and they indicate snow profiles, not rain.

Strange indeed. All other models are showing snow ptype 

Interesting that they have a recon sampling in the open waters.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z euro about to roll out soon, right? Going to set the toaster oven up next to the bathtub and fill it with just enough water to cover my scrawny little body 

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS is an absolute crushing from about dawn through noon. Wow.

Funny how it’s showing rain on the backside 

Borrowed from the New England thread,

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

12z was 4.1” at SWF.

Thanks Don

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

If the 6Z GFS is correct for Trenton to NYC along 95, for example (and we have no clue), it's showing 7-8" of 10:1 snow falling from the sky from 10 am to 4 pm with good looking DGZ snow crystal formation/growth, column temps well below 32F until very close to the surface and surface temps around 33F.  Verbatim, that snow is ;likely going to accumulate easily at over 1" per hour rates and will likely do better than the Kuchera algorithm, which treats a 1500 foot deep 33F layer aloft the same as it does a shallow 300 foot 33F layer right at the surface (it only takes max column temp into consideration, not depth=time at that max temp) and those aren't the same, as less partial melting will occur in the latter case, meaning less compaction and loss of good ratios.  If the GFS is correct.

Interestingly, the GEFS shows warmer surface temps of 35-37F during the event, but since it's showing a smoothed mean of many members, the ~6" of snow it shows falls over 9-12 hours, so at maybe 0.5" per hour, which is not nearly as dynamic and that could be why there is less cooling at the surface; at those temps during the day and at lower intensity, though, one would expect a fair amount less snow to accumulate.  One would think the Op is more likely to show dynamics better than the ensemble mean, though.  

Intensity is going to be so important for this storm if the GFS is close to right, especially during the day...

Nice write up.  It will be interesting when the short range models such as the HRRR and HRDPS are in range. 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Recent NBE estimates for NYC:

Don, does it have estimates for other locations inland such as KSWF?

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS clown map 

And a general 2-3” of QPF thru 274 hours.  And as we know this will flip flop like a fish out of water for the next runs. Some better sampling in the next few days will get a better read. 
 

33 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

@Prismshine Productions Where are you? I need backup. Getting absolutely destroyed in here.

22 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Had a trace last night at some point, I saw remnants of it on the driveway where it goes over a culvert

Same here. Also heard that the speed was reduced on the Newburgh-Beacon bridge and it was treated for icy conditions.