hudsonvalley21

Thanks Walt. Could be a tricky go tomorrow morning especially with the cold ground temps that will keep the snow from melting quickly on untreated roadways. Hopefully travelers and commuters take their time.  Currently 21/7.

5 here.

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Are you drunk???

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Besides the time of year, what I'm really enjoying with this snowfall is that there is cold air streaming in behind the storm. It seems like most of our snowfalls these days come with warmer temps on its heels. 

Good northwest wind with that Canadian air and a low of 11 tonight helps with the Christmas mood. Oops the snow cover too!

3.5” for the snow total.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Similar ratio here, 3.3" melted down to .22" of liquid giving me 15:1. 

3.5” will do it here. Just cleaned up outside before this stuff hard freezes up later. Forecast low of 10 tonight.

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

31f w/cloudy skies

3.9” on the ground 

9.4” ytd so far

Elevation dependent is definitely the factor. I have 1/3” of slush here at 125’ of elevation.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

3.7"

Wow big difference, 1/3 of an inch of slush and my road wasn’t totally covered.

Light snow 32/27 currently.  A coating on the ground.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs has a storm signal. That's all we can ask for at this range.

All the models have a signal

So you did speak to Santa  

1.68” here for the total yesterday.

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I84 don't look too far ahead.  Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2").  Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs.  NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue.

Thanks Walt, something to keep an eye on. 
 

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Did you fill Santa in on this?
Agreed, a big ‘IF’ that far out. 

I think he did.

13 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

What’s everyone throwing on the grill for Christmas this year?

I’ll see if I can shovel it out  

0.63” here, light rain currently. 36/35

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.6         0.5        0.2        0.2       0.7      1.0          0.2      0.9        0.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

17”       21”       28”       26”      24”    102”     51”       4”    84”

1 hour ago, snywx said:

Checked the board an hour ago and measured 4”. Elevation dependent is an understatement. I would say at 500’ you have a general 2-3” but above 1000’ there is 10+. I-84 from Middletown to port jervis is shut down. Greenville mtn is getting hammered. Buddy measured 12” up there at 1200’

Just a dusting here at 125’ in elevation. Had 1.22” yesterday in precipitation. 1.17” since midnight today. So 2.39 in the Davis. I wonder if at the top of Storm King mtn. at 1,220’ has the 12” there too.

NJZ002-NYZ067>070-221200- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.241122T0000Z-241122T1500Z/ Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 326 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations will be highly elevation dependent. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches at elevations above 500 feet, with the highest amounts above 1000 feet. Elsewhere, accumulations will likely be less than 2 inches. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, and Rockland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. The heaviest snow will likely fall between 11 PM and 6 AM. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. Isolated tree damage and power outages are possible due to heavy wet snow load.

Just now, snywx said:

I was strictly referring to orange W of the walkill River. Areas like Otisville, Mount Hope, Port Jervis, Greenville Mtn area are mostly above 750’ and far enough W to benefit 

The elevation is key with this event.

Upton’s thoughts, A section of their AFD

CAMs and regional models have diverged somewhat on the position of the movement of the low tonight. Some of the CAMs bring the center of the low just north of our area and a little to the east into the early night before having it retrograde to our west in Upstate New York while other just stick with tracking the low to our northwest. The more northeasterly track, regardless will only occur this evening into early tonight before bumping west. With the low tracking north of us this evening, cooler air will take over this evening with temperatures near or below freezing in interior locations north and west of NYC. Prior to this, temperatures will be in the 40s. A transition from rain to snow is expected this evening for interior areas north and west of NYC, but given the warm temperatures prior, snowfall may struggle to accumulate. Its possible we could see a few heavy bands of snow with snowfall rates around 1-2"/hr this evening into early tonight indicated by the 00Z HREF and a saturated dendritic growth zone before the precip gets cut off by a dry pocket of air that moves in when the low retrogrades westward into upstate New York. This dry air is easiest to see when looking at model soundings or at model 700 mb relative humidity. Higher elevations in interior locations northwest of NYC will most likely see accumulations of 1-4 inches. Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties are now highlighted in the HWO for this potential. However, most of the interior northwest of NYC is at lower elevation and only a trace to 0.5" is expected due to warmer ground melting the snow and a short window for snow banding before the precip becomes much lighter from dry air intrusion. Snow ratios are also expected to be on the low side, further contributing to lower snow accumulations compared to what some of the CAMs are producing with 10:1 Snowfall.

A section of Upton’s AFD,

CAMs and regional models have diverged somewhat on the position of the movement of the low tonight. Some of the CAMs bring the center of the low just north of our area and a little to the east into the early night before having it retrograde to our west in Upstate New York while other just stick with tracking the low to our northwest. The more northeasterly track, regardless will only occur this evening into early tonight before bumping west. With the low tracking north of us this evening, cooler air will take over this evening with temperatures near or below freezing in interior locations north and west of NYC. Prior to this, temperatures will be in the 40s. A transition from rain to snow is expected this evening for interior areas north and west of NYC, but given the warm temperatures prior, snowfall may struggle to accumulate. Its possible we could see a few heavy bands of snow with snowfall rates around 1-2"/hr this evening into early tonight indicated by the 00Z HREF and a saturated dendritic growth zone before the precip gets cut off by a dry pocket of air that moves in when the low retrogrades westward into upstate New York. This dry air is easiest to see when looking at model soundings or at model 700 mb relative humidity. Higher elevations in interior locations northwest of NYC will most likely see accumulations of 1-4 inches. Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties are now highlighted in the HWO for this potential. However, most of the interior northwest of NYC is at lower elevation and only a trace to 0.5" is expected due to warmer ground melting the snow and a short window for snow banding before the precip becomes much lighter from dry air intrusion. Snow ratios are also expected to be on the low side, further contributing to lower snow accumulations compared to what some of the CAMs are producing with 10:1 Snowfall.

.93   45/43.  Light rain currently.

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thanksgiving snow has happened here in the past and it can happen again. Had a big one in the 70s and one in the 80s

Definitely possible. Up this way we had snow around Halloween a few years ago. Huge change from 7 days ago. Great help for the brush fires and the reservoirs.

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Waiting for the wdrag Black Friday snow thread 

 

 

As of the 18z run, it’s just under 200 hours out. Subject to change as usual.

 

47 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we want a thread for this storm.  It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night.  This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday.  Your call. 

Sure Walt, start a thread.  Concerned about flooding, runoff with the hard ground an a good amount of QPF in a short time.