hudsonvalley21

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

0z NAM shows 9-11" additional for this area. Interesting. I doubt it but nice to see

The 00z HRRR shows an additional 8”. Maybe another 2”-4” or 3”-5”?

1 minute ago, snywx said:

No way he has 9" right now. Maybe half that 

Thinking that too. Especially it’s not 10:1 ratios.

15 minutes ago, snywx said:

26 w/ heavy snow 

2.8” otg

28/28 with heavy snow. 1.5” otg. Super wet snow that compacts to ice immediately when stepped on. Calcium chloride is key for a base.

QPF is still concerning for the next week. 

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

I'd really love to see a flake here at some point if it's not too much trouble, no worries if not

It basically just picked up in intensity about 15 minutes ago. Coating on all surfaces. 29/28.

29/28 moderate snow now. Coating on all surfaces.

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The totals increased on the GFS in areas that were already seeing all or mostly snow. Nothing has really changed. Locked in now.

It appears that the short range models have also bumped a little north in the 12z runs.

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Transfer to the bx or uptown 

Most NYPD and FDNY that I know up this way work in the bx 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.

Also a little more QPF

WPC still bullish with the QPF totals for the next 7days.

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Flurries in the air again today so we should have four days in a row with snowflakes… be still my beating heart 

Rest that heart , it will get a workout soon  

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

So the latest Euro showing 3.5-4.5" of QPF for both storms by next Wednesday...

Hopefully we get enough snow from the 1st event to absorb the rain from the 2nd event to help lower the flooding risk.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I think we'll see some snow at the start but that storm has cutter written all over it.  We'll see what happens though.  The 12z GFS got more interesting for this weekend, so we'll see if the other models start getting stronger as well of if it was a fluke GFS run.

Much more interesting the 12z vs. the 06z. Could be that more sampling has been added. We’ll see what the 18z shows. 
 

12z NAM has bumped up QPF totals around the NYC area vs. the 06 runs.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Why would they talk about next week when we have a board of experts and enthusiasts that cant really tell us what will happen 2 days from now. We have already established that models are pretty variable outside 72 hours.

 

Next week may not happen at all. Certainly no way to tell if we have threatening floods until we are 2-3 days out, right? No reason for unwarranted hysteria.

 

This board would do well with that advice too

We’ll see how it evolves. If it is looking like a major event then they will be mentioning it Saturday night and Sunday during the first event right?

9 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The sad thing about this is the fact tv stations who have not been overly hyping this, rather holding fort with the "stay tuned as the situation unfolds and we learn more information" messaging is lost by the fact that social media is plastered with the snowiest model runs starting last weekend by the fakes.  Folks will once again say "where's my snow" without ever even listening to the on air mets, and instead say they were wrong again. 

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

My new sump pump backup battery arrives tomorrow.


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Good move. 
 

A good amount of QPF for the 2nd event from WPC’s thoughts.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The second system could really do some flooding damage with a couple inches of rain in a relatively short amount of time. 

Definitely has my attention especially up this way. The flooding/power loss potential I hope doesn’t come to fruition. After the first system comes thru will see what the models show for the 2nd one. Who knows, we could get a good front end thump of snow with #2. That could help with some rain absorption with this weekends snow. 

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Amazing that in the decade and a half that I’ve had this sump pump in the new part of my basement (I added a French drain in conjunction with it), it ran the longest it ever has right before Christmas. Didn’t run for Isiais, Ida, or Irene. (We love our Is)


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With the QPF amounts we’ve had for the last month plus vegetation dormant, everything is totally saturated. What would help would be the ground surface to freeze. That would help some but be worse for the folks living near the waterways. Definitely a tough time for many. 

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Backup sump pump battery is arriving Friday!

I’m on a hill as well; it’s the high water table people are going to be wrestling with if there’s rain + snowmelt.


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The QPF for the 2nd event is around 1”-2”. Hopefully we won’t have many issues. Fingers crossed.

Thank you Rodger for all the time and diligence you put into this contest. It is greatly appreciated. 

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm with you on that, the 12z GFS flips the bird to folks wanting snow around here. The Canadian looks a bit different than the GFS. One run with lots to go but clearly nothing should be locked up in either direction six days out. 

I think the flooding potential might be more impactful vs.the snowfall. Especially if we get a good amount of QPF from both events.

Happy New Years to all. 

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure.

WX/PT

And as Walt Drag just mentioned, there is another system on its heels to contend with.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Need the 50 50 to hold 

Talking about  a different 50. 50 miles of a shift in any direction would make a huge difference in what this run shows. I hate being in the bullseye this far out. That 50 50 low is key.