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hudsonvalley21

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Posts posted by hudsonvalley21

  1. 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

    But they haven't extended that east yet

    No and the dewpts are dropping. Currently 41 at KSWF. It was at 57 at 1pm when the wind shifted more westerly.

    edit, the humidity was at 78% now it’s 41%.

    • Like 2
  2. 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

    Odd that we're in an enhanced risk but they're not issuing a watch

    Mesoscale Discussion 0432
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
    
       Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
       Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York
    
       Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...
    
       Valid 012037Z - 012230Z
    
       The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
       continues.
    
       SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
       eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
       possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
       Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
       large hail by early evening.
    
       DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
       rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
       wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
       moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
       continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
       rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. 
    
       Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
       activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
       storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
       and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
       and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
       coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
       increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
       tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
       activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
       southern NY and New England.
    

     

  3. 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    Hopefully I can chase later. Have to go to New Britain to my niece's birthday party. I'm pumped the Bruins play at 3:00 too...can go after the game. 

    Full sun here on this west side of the Hudson. 66/57.  We’ll see what happens later. Have to watch for those decrete cells before the front. 

  4. 31 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

    5.2 inches in Highland Mills so only added 0.7 since 7:30 dryslotted to light snow much of that time.
     
    Borderline heavy again in the last 15 minutes at 31.1 and holding.  Will snowblow at 11 and see what this hour brings totals wise. 

    Had the same in accumulation. Back to moderate snow currently, temp 33. Super heavy snow, it was like shoveling water. Forecast has another 2-4” for today.  Hopefully the winds don’t hit what’s forecasted. HRRR still showing another  2-7” in our area for today.

     

    735BE888-96BC-4E28-B7D4-5FC4E12B2A2E.png

    • Like 2
  5. 00z HRRR has been basically holding serv for the last few hours. We’ll see how things pan out tomorrow. I’m thinking on the low side of accumulations at my location with the elevation of 125’. Maybe 3-6. Up at higher elevations, it will be a different story.

     

    ACA340F6-D346-436D-B9E4-5F74C6C989E4.png

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

    While weenies are concerned with what the various 10:1 snow maps show falling on their head one thing I think many aren’t realizing is the relatively long period of winds with some decent gusts. It certainly will feel like winter for a couple days. 

    And the winds slamming the snowpaste on tree limbs and power lines.

    • Sad 1
  7. 3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

    I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct.

    Most models are basically showing around 2” of QPF just to the north of NYC now it’s just what p-type falls and where.

    • Like 1
  8. 6 minutes ago, snywx said:

    Trying to keep expectations to a min but damn it’s hard to ignore that IVT feature showing up on all modeling for Orange County. 6z Euro is a firehose pointed right into the county. 

    Agree, it’s been steady for the last few runs.

     

    7EA8CACD-DF7B-4619-80AF-7B0A451D1E9B.png

    • Like 1
  9. 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

    True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.

    Yes it’s possible. Elevation comes into play. For example, last nights event, I had 0.50” on grassy surfaces for the total accumulation. At 125’ in elevation on Storm King mountain, there was 3” at 1,100’.

    • Like 1
  10. 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

    Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did.  Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30.  One can dream though....  I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 

     

    Also, it’s March. If it was January or February, there would be a higher chance of getting those 10:1 ratios.

  11. 14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

    32.7F and pouring white rain. Need a few more tenths and it's go time.

    Was in the town of Newburgh about 30 minutes ago it was mostly a mixed bag and 34 degrees. Here in New Windsor currently 35 degrees with ice pellets mixed in and 0.24” in the tipper.

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