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hudsonvalley21

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Posts posted by hudsonvalley21

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

    That already happened up here, its right up there with the worst I've ever seen. Yesterday will only prolong that misery. 

    The mosquito activity has ramped up here as well in the last few days.

    Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

    The 9.74" makes it the second wettest July for me, only topped by 2023 with 13.95". My average is 4.85". Interesting to note that I had .08" more in the Stratus than in the Davis which had to be due to splash out from the Davis in the 12.52" per hour rate for five minutes followed by a 11.76" rate for five minutes around 9:30pm last night. 

    That cell that moved thru was a gully washer by you around 9:30. I just got clipped by it. Total of 1.48 in the Davis for yesterday here.

    edit: rain shower currently and a few more out there for today.

    • Like 1

    Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential

    in New England

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

     FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. 
     

    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

     

    • Like 1

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    SPC AC 181219 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong tornado. ...OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast over the Upper Great Lakes towards the Northeast during the period. The primary upper vorticity max will rotate through the base of the larger-scale trough and through the St. Lawrence Valley, before an upstream disturbance west of James Bay this morning pivots southeast and reaches Maine/eastern Quebec by early Sunday. Surface analysis this morning places a 1004-mb low north of Georgian Bay and a cold front extending west-southwestward into northern IA. An attendant warm front arching southeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and draped over the Mid-Atlantic states will advance northward as the cyclone develops east towards northern Maine by late evening. Concurrently, the cold front will push southeast across much of Great Lakes into the OH Valley. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass was sampled this morning by 12 UTC raobs and surface observations (i.e., upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints). A few thunderstorm clusters this morning have developed near the warm frontal zone from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. The early day storm activity will likely be limited in storm vigor, due in part to initially widespread cloud cover inhibiting strong heating in the areas downstream over parts of PA/NY. Gradual dissipation of clouds and heating coupled with the northeastward advancement of the warm sector will promote a broad area to become moderately to strongly unstable later today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. A belt of westerly 30-45 kt 700-mb flow from northern VA into the Northeast will aid in storm organization and severe potential this afternoon and evening. Models differ substantially regarding evolution/timing of possible bands of storms and clusters with embedded cells. Regardless of specific details, it seems plausible several multicellular bands of storms will develop during peak heating and organize as these bands move east. Some of the more intense cells will potentially become supercellular posing an all-hazards severe risk. Have largely unchanged the previous outlook given the inherent thunderstorm evolution-based uncertainties. Potentially widespread damaging gusts [50-60 mph, locally stronger (55-70 mph) perhaps paralleling the I-95 corridor from Chesapeake Bay into southern New England]. A few tornadoes are possible both from linear and cellular storm structures given some low-level hodograph enlargement and moist low levels.

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

    Am I crazy or do the models have very little?

    We’ll have to see after the first batch gets thru around 1 pm or so and see how much clearing and destabilization occurs for the 2nd line later. The less action in the first line will help out for stronger action later. Hopefully the Mesoscale models pick up on the action in a few hours. So it’s wait and see for a little bit.

    SPC will have an update in a few minutes, we’ll see their thoughts.

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Just a wall of smoke coming in from the north. Will undercut temps by several degrees tomorrow 

    Definitely cut the temps here, currently 83 with the smoke visibility about 3 miles 

    Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, xram said:

    4.96" for the day so far. 5.98" event total and counting

    Lost power an hour ago just in time for the soccer game. Had to fire up the generator

    Wow that sucks. I’m lucky here in New Windsor having power.  Just broke the 5” reading with 5.03” currently.

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

    The worst of the cell is to my north, picked up .50" so far from it. 

    Good to hear that you’re not in the bullseye. Some of the Mesoscale models are showing up to around 9” of QPF thru Tuesday in different areas it all depends on where these cells set up shop and just dump. 

    July 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

    Flood Advisory just issued here, the cell has been back building/hardly moving. 

    It’s just to my north and west, hearing the thunder but no rain here yet. 

    FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
  rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following
  county, Orange.

* WHEN...Until 915 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
    flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor
    flooding in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of
    rain have fallen.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Middletown, Montgomery, Scotchtown, Mechanicstown, Maybrook,
    Circleville and Bullville.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

     

    Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

    Suprised all is quite here after last nights severe thunderstorms.  35,000 people in Dutchess had no power last night.  We have been on generator power since 3 am.  Trees down everywhere, hail, lightnight and 70 to 80 MPH winds ripped everything up that wasnt tied down. CoCoRaHS measured 1.60 inches of rain near me but i would say it was twice that amount.  I havent seen a storm like this in many years.

    I was over in Wappengers yesterday when it came thru. Winds around 40 not sure how much rain fell, guessing on the person’s pool I’d say 1.5 to 2.0” in an hour. Seen several limbs down but no power outages, on my way bay to the west side of the Hudson. IMBY had only 0.05” in the bucket with no noticeable wind damage. Sorry to hear about your loss of power. Hopefully back on by now.

    Some of the Mesoscale models are rather bullish on QPF amounts thru Tuesday, some showing around 9”.

    It will be a dependent on where these cells set up shop and just dump.

    Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    0.36 here. A slight chance of showers tomorrow morning. Looks like the heat comes back next week. 

    Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

    DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Area in warm sector with southerly flow. The southerly flow increases this afternoon becoming gusty along parts of the coast. The rain showers with left front quad dynamics will be less expansive and decrease in probability later this morning when the dynamics are less favorable. Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms into early this morning will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. There will be building instability but drier air and a lack of vertical moisture. So, the cold front is not expected to result in additional shower and thunderstorm activity as it approaches this afternoon and moves across this evening into overnight. The chances for showers increase late tonight into Saturday as a wave of low pressure develops along the cold front south of the region. There may be enough elevated instability for a possible thunderstorm but probabilities for these are slight chance. Max temperatures in the 80s today for most locations and more in the 70s to near 80 Saturday with that greater chance of showers.

    .KEY MESSAGE 2... Building heat potential late weekend into next week. Mainly dry but a few disturbances may bring about some periodic showers and thunderstorms next week. High pressure moves in by Sunday and into Monday. This high pressure area settles south of the region and becomes based in Western Atlantic thereafter. Mainly dry conditions expected Saturday night and through the rest of the weekend as well as through Monday. Chances for any showers and thunderstorms will be tied more to any occasional disturbances, weak waves of low pressure or embedded shortwaves in the mid level flow aloft Tuesday onward next week. There are relatively higher chances as the week progresses as there will be more daytime instability to help make the air more buoyant. The forecast used a blend of forecast guidance for late weekend into next week for temperatures. Forecast high temperatures well into the 80s for Monday will get more into the 90s as the week progresses with more of the region getting into the 90s range. With the synoptic setup, airmass will become humid as well, with potential max heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 range for mid to late next week.

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