hudsonvalley21

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Thanks so much Walt for your thoughts, insights, and efforts along with teaching us so much here. Best of health and joy to you and your family. Please jump in any time you feel. All the best!

4.0” here.

30/30 with light snow .20”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

34 minutes ago, snywx said:

We already have one up for orange. The first events of the season are always fun 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 NYZ067-010700- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.251202T0900Z-251203T0300Z/ Orange- 113 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

48 minutes ago, snywx said:

3k NAM is more in line with most guidance. 5-8” 

I agree with leaning towards the 3K. Even in the short range, the 12K over performs more so. We’ll see how this plays out. A bunch of runs to go. 

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For what this is worth... has anyone checked BOX, OKX and discussions...  I dont quite have time...  but I'm thinking this rapid transition of an end moving- strengthening shortwave across our area with strong LFQ and even stronger RRQ of 250-300MB jets may fit the bombogenesis profile.  Let us know if anyone has mentioned this?

PPP drops at least 24 MB in 24 hrs 12z Tue-12zWED.  I'm believing rapid intensification and now it's a matter of thermal profiles.  Going to be an interesting day in these parts with R+ LI and a "period "of S+ wet snow inland.

mPing of value Tuesday including the possibility of a northernly jet 40kt plus on the backside over LI as the storm rushes east northeast. 

No mention in the AFD’s from either in regards to the shortwave.

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Agreed. While it's possible the Newburgh waterfront on the Hudson is a slushy 33F vs. 32F and accumulating snow at Stewart airport, the model soundings say elevation along the transition zone might only matter in terms of rain vs. ZR.

That result has happened many times. In addition, up on top of Storm King Mountain, is an even snowier outcome.  And all are within a 5 mile radius.

TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

                           1.4       1.3      1.0      -1.6      1.7      1.5       0.4      1.8     -0.3

SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

                         18”       22”      31”        32”      42”     93”      52”      4”      88”

13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I hope everyone had a nice time celebrating today

 

A great day indeed, hopefully you and yours had a wonderful day too.

HWO’s and wind advisory’s are out respectively, now it’s up for individuals to use common sense and have awareness for their families safety with Halloween activities later on today. 

42 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic.  Thank you.  Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. 

OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

Thanks for the heads up. It’s important put it out there with the trick or treating and the possibility of a limb or tree coming down. Good to have a little extra awareness today.

2.03” is the total here.

1 minute ago, xram said:

1.99" so far

2.01” here so far.

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

1.32" now and that line, which isn't as bad up here, has moved through.

Line is just about thru here, just heavy rain, no wind.

looks like it could be backfilling with the latest radar return.

Rain rate of 3.56” currently. 1.77” so far.

Current rain rate is 3.56”  total as of 3:45 is 1.77”

November

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.4     1.6       1.3        0.1      1.8     1.2       2.2      1.5   -0.3

1.24” as of 3pm.

1.24” as of 3 pm.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide. 

Another factor was the position and strength of high pressure to our north. There were a few events where suppression made a factor and kept systems to our south.

On 10/25/2025 at 8:59 AM, IrishRob17 said:

You broke! I broke down and turned on the upstairs zone. Most of my outdoor stuff is put away and gardens cut down, I have some chairs and two outdoor speakers left. I keep those two out there as long as possible and will sometimes hook them up for a day in nicer weekend weather during the winter. Leaves are at least 90% done here, just one more clean up for those. 

Yup, I broke down again. I must be getting old   

35 was the low here. Another year I couldn’t make it to Halloween without putting the heat on. Good day to put away some outdoor stuff with the possibility of some stormy weather mid to late next week.

30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

For anyone who may have saw the observation, I promise you all it’s not snowing at KMGJ, just frost, looks like the low will be 34 here. 

35 was the low here. No frost IMBY.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

It kind of looks like a classic closed off low around the Mississippi River and depending on the air patterns and blocking locations, it’s a gamble of it’s future track.  Welcome to fall and winter fun.