hudsonvalley21

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Looking further, that’s quite a cold pool of air just to my northeast this morning, lots of below zero. To the southwest it’s warmer, relatively speaking. 

I’m in the cold pool of air to your east/northeast. My low was -3 currently it’s +6. It’s a rare occurrence where my temps get lower than yours. 

February 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.6     -2.9      -2.8     -2.7    -0.5     +0.3    +2.6    +2.1     +2.3

30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Low of +2 this morning. Maybe I get a below zero reading right before midnight to keep my streak going but it looks to be too windy for me.

Hopefully we can get there. Point and click forecast is for -4 tonight, we’ll see at 11:59 pm tonight .  Ice daming in the gutters even with de-icers on from this last event. I’m not the only one. Definitely a colder winter so far. 

24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

If we're going pro, I am going to be Don's caddy. 

20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

Lock it up.  By the way, how much for Philly?  

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

And still showing cold afterwards. Wondering what stage the MOJO is showing for this next possibly for Sunday?

28 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Well the plows did that for me. And then pushed it into a pile. Pretty sure they have cameras on me, only time i see a plow is when i just finish my driveway.

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Latest discussion:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0064.html

The 20z HRRR is showing another 6” to come

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

This, flakes grew in size for a bit but back to very fine flakes.

It’s been fine flakes here for the last few hours.  Currently 7/5   10.5” OTG

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

...before stalling nea...? Near where?

Oops sorry 

Expect this transition zone to continue to advect north during the early afternoon before stalling near the Connecticut shore by mid-afternoon.

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

6.5 inches as of noon.
6° and snow continues. Still waiting for those 2 to 3 in./h bands. Hope they show up this afternoon.

Same here 

Mesoscale Discussion 0058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania...southern New York...northern New Jersey...Connecticut...Rhode Island...and southern Massachusetts. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251655Z - 252100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall is expected through the afternoon with rates up to 2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is already ongoing across Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning. This heavy snow will shift northeast through the afternoon. In addition, very heavy rates are expected to develop across far southeast New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. In this region, very strong 700mb frontogenesis is forecast between 18Z and 21Z amid strong isentropic ascent. In addition, amid strong warm-air advection, the transition zone from snow to sleet is moving rapidly north across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey (as sampled by KDOX Correlation Coefficient). Expect this transition zone to continue to advect north during the early afternoon before stalling nea

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

6° snow continues. 6.5 inches as of the noon measurement. 

Same here.

New York City 8.6

Boston 17.3

Philadelphia 8.7

Washington DC 4.2

Hartford 16.4

Albany 16.2

New Windsor,ny (near KSWF)  19.7

Currently 9/-10. Shot out a question to DonSoutherland regarding start times tomorrow with the cold dry air in place. It might take a little more time for the snow to reach the surface to what the models are showing. It depends on when the column saturates enough. Don agreed that it is possible. 
it has happened before, so we’ll see how it unfolds.

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On a more serious note regarding the NAM, the RGEM's high-resolution model and most of the global models use 4dVAR (four-dimensional variation) initialization. The NAM uses the older 3dVAR (three-dimensional variation) initialization. The general idea of warmer air moving in to change the snow to sleet in coastal areas and the New York City area and its nearby suburbs is the baseline idea due to lots of support. It's uncertain whether the NAM is overdoing things on account of its older initialization scheme or if it sees something the other guidance doesn't. If it begins to adjust late today (18z or later), that could be an indication that the older initialization process was playing a role. If, on the other hand, the other guidance starts shifting, that will indicate that the NAM, despite its limitations, had correctly resolved some of the details ahead of the other guidance.

Another thought Don is the start time to what the models are showing. The cold dry air in place might hold off for the snow to reach the surface for some time more till the columns saturate especially points north of NYC. Currently 7/-8 

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey?

Maybe they are considering a mixing issue? Only guessing.

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That warm nose is starting to concern me. It's prone to change to sleet here earlier than further west and stay crystally as that IVT they mention in the discussion gets it's act together. 

Hopefully it doesn’t push in this far. Unfortunately this will come down to nowcasting time. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more. 

I’m thinking it will be for the progression and start times.

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place.

We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours
 

Once the information has been inputted, we’ll see these changes and hopefully will lock on to a set forecast. As always, subject to change. 

47 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Already down to 11°. 

Down to 7 here. Already hit the forecast low. No wind and snowpack is helping with the radiational cooling.

14 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

My first call
NYC - between 0" and 100"
ISP - between 0" and 100"
AC - Between 0" and 100"
DC - Between 0" and 100"
Bos - Between 0" and 100"

No way I can be wrong.

 

How much for Philly  

I would love to have @wdrag to start a thread when and if it’s needed.

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For this to really to go bonkers you’d want the trough to close off over the Tennessee Valley. Even so, there will be an insane amount of overrunning precip. 

I believe that the rule of thumb was there or the Mississippi River to close off. 

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Nice improvement on the GGEM. 

Surprised to see that. I would have thought it would be suppressed. 

4.5” will do it here. Currently 27 and some icing up on spots. 00z runs are coming in a little more bullish for tomorrow’s event up this way. We’ll see.