hudsonvalley21

HWO’s and wind advisory’s are out respectively, now it’s up for individuals to use common sense and have awareness for their families safety with Halloween activities later on today. 

42 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic.  Thank you.  Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. 

OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

Thanks for the heads up. It’s important put it out there with the trick or treating and the possibility of a limb or tree coming down. Good to have a little extra awareness today.

2.03” is the total here.

1 minute ago, xram said:

1.99" so far

2.01” here so far.

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

1.32" now and that line, which isn't as bad up here, has moved through.

Line is just about thru here, just heavy rain, no wind.

looks like it could be backfilling with the latest radar return.

Rain rate of 3.56” currently. 1.77” so far.

Current rain rate is 3.56”  total as of 3:45 is 1.77”

November

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.4     1.6       1.3        0.1      1.8     1.2       0.2      0.5   -0.3

1.24” as of 3pm.

1.24” as of 3 pm.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide. 

Another factor was the position and strength of high pressure to our north. There were a few events where suppression made a factor and kept systems to our south.

On 10/25/2025 at 8:59 AM, IrishRob17 said:

You broke! I broke down and turned on the upstairs zone. Most of my outdoor stuff is put away and gardens cut down, I have some chairs and two outdoor speakers left. I keep those two out there as long as possible and will sometimes hook them up for a day in nicer weekend weather during the winter. Leaves are at least 90% done here, just one more clean up for those. 

Yup, I broke down again. I must be getting old   

35 was the low here. Another year I couldn’t make it to Halloween without putting the heat on. Good day to put away some outdoor stuff with the possibility of some stormy weather mid to late next week.

30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

For anyone who may have saw the observation, I promise you all it’s not snowing at KMGJ, just frost, looks like the low will be 34 here. 

35 was the low here. No frost IMBY.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama.

300 Hours:

312 Hours:

324 Hours:

Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb.

It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

It kind of looks like a classic closed off low around the Mississippi River and depending on the air patterns and blocking locations, it’s a gamble of it’s future track.  Welcome to fall and winter fun.

1.52” total for the event.

1.22” event total as of 11am. Light rain currently 52/50.

1.22’ event total as of 11am.  

0.18” as of 11:30 pm for the day since midnight. 54/52

9 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Again, haven't been through that one but in general, narrow lanes is a traffic calming device as it mentally causes most drivers to slow down. When we came back from Texas on Monday we were on the Garden State for a bit around the lunch hour. We could not believe how bad people were driving even at that hour. For example, saw three different cars dart to the right to exit from the middle lane at the last possible second. 

You see it more commonly now with it looking like a NASCAR event on any highway. For an example, the Palisades parkway and around Stony Point, the Bear Mountain Traffic Circle, route 6 extension areas, it’s a plethora of driving styles that make up a recipe for disaster and accidents occurring almost daily.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The last time was Sandy that happened wasn't it?

 

I believe so.

You don’t see this kind of advisory too often 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

NYC071-079-087-119-132200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0077.251011T2038Z-251013T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Westchester NY-
438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in low-lying
  areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of storm surge up
  the Hudson River during the times of high tide Sunday afternoon,
  Sunday Night and Monday afternoon.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following
  counties, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester.

* WHEN...Until 600 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Scattered areas minor to locally moderate flooding is
  expected in the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and
  shoreline. Expect around 1 to 2 ft of inundation above ground
  level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low lying
  property including parking lots, parks, lawns and
  homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront will
  experience shallow flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 422 PM EDT, Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected
    in low-lying areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of
    storm surge up the Hudson River during the times of high tide
    Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday afternoon.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Piermont, Stony Point, Cortland, Ossining, Cold Spring,
    Newburgh and Croton-on-Hudson.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I think last year was only the second time I made it to November lol

October 10th is a little early for me though.

 

Yup still holding on this year and didn’t cave yet. Will see how it goes with the rain and lack of sun the next couple of days.

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you guys remember when you turned on your heat last year?

It was November 13 for me last year.

 

Sorry I currently have brain freeze   Only kidding, I believe it was the 3rd week of October last year, I try to make it to Halloween  annually but usually cave in a week or two before then every year. 

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I caved, flipped the heat on just now, it was 59 downstairs. 29 degrees and still dropping, can I get to 28...

Down to 29 and holding on flipping the heat switch. Also some frost on the pumpkins.  Wow that’s chilly, 65 in my house currently.