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hudsonvalley21

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Posts posted by hudsonvalley21

  1. 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

    The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch...

    Has per the latest radar loops, it appears to be forming well and moving north along the nj coast.

  2. 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

    It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

    As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

    Agree, and if we do get into those heavy snow rates, it will put some trees and limbs in stress.

  3. Just now, Juliancolton said:

    Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

    On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing

    image.gif

  4. 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

    6" will go down as low, though I do tend to agree with your tempered expectations. The axis of precip has already materialized over DE and NJ, and it's pivoting northward... just have to watch where that goes from here. 8-12" still looks good for up here.

    Wow, huge numbers... unfortunately the NWS getting gung-ho right as things start cranking is usually the KOD, lol.

    Let's see if it comes up to the north and west a little more before it kicks out to the northeast. 20 miles could make a huge difference.

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