FallsLake

GFS at hour 78 is warmer. Just a little snow showing north of Greensboro into Virginia.

Even with the NAM look, it would be a slush fest. Still I would consider this a win: total accumulation for hour 84:

I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold):

No the NAM is looking juicy. Our region (as normal) is on the line. But the 84 hour NAM snow fall shows 2-4" across Wake (most for CR), with more to come. You would have to assume most of that would not stick; but still...

Nam is also ever so slight colder at the surface; especially on the onset.

Man your right; for me it's got a chance of rain or snow until 1am.

Here's the 6z NAM at hour 81 (temps at RDU look like 33/32):

The way things are shaping up; if anybody sees snow flakes falling from the sky, consider that a win. RAH is talking a little bit more about snow (than yesterday): It will be unsettled with a threat of light precipitation persisting for Thursday and Friday as disturbances aloft in the fast southwesterly flow provide sufficient forcing for precipitation. The greatest threat and precipitation amounts are still expected to the south and east of Raleigh across the Coastal Plain and Coastal region. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how far north and west the precipitation will extend and the overall amounts. NWP guidances has struggled with this for several days and this is a pattern which is often problematic. There is a reasonable chance that some of the precipitation Thursday morning and especially Thursday night and Friday morning could fall as some wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow across the Piedmont. The amount of cold air will be the primary limiting factor which should keep things from getting out of hand. Warm boundary layer temperatures, relatively warm soil temperatures, light precipitation amounts, weak precipitation rates and questions regarding the ability of the moisture to extend into the ice nucleation region across the northwest flank of the precipitation axis where temperatures would be most favorable for wet snow suggest a marginal event with fairly high confidence that impacts will be limited. No accumulation is forecast at this point although a few GFS/EPS ensemble members which include unsophisticated assumptions indicate some minor accumulation is possible. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 40s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday only in the lower to mid 40s.

The pollen is horrible. Yesterday afternoon there was a green haze everywhere. Hopefully the rain that's moving through the Triangle (as I write) will wash this stuff away; at least temporarily.

I've got one Bing cherry tree but don't get much because I have no pollinator. Lots of blooms but very little develop.

I might get a few peaches this year. I thought I lost everything (fruit wise) but I see some small fruit bulges where the flowers had been. So maybe...

This could really hurt (from RAH): Incoming cP surface high pressure behind the front on Fri will result in a hard freeze Fri night-Sat morning, when temperatures are expected to fall into the lower-middle 20s over the Piedmont, to upper 20s to around 30 degrees over the Sandhills, srn Coastal Plain, and urban areas. Temperatures will gradually moderate thereafter, as the surface ridge moves E and modifies, with 50s on Sat replaced by 60s-70s by early next week. I suppose the upper 20s to around 30 for the eastern areas would not be as bad.

When I was a kid living in Florida, California, and then Utah we called them stickers. Horrible things. I think they prefer more sandy soil. I have clay soil and I'm hoping to never see them take hold.

I've had them off and on for the last five years. I haven't done much to stop them, but I'll see a mound one year and then the next it's gone. Again I'm not sure if the winters are killing them off or the red clay soil I have (or combination of both).

Just waiting for the fire ants to become more established. I know they're already in this area but currently have a hard time surviving the winters.

Years back, the state threw out Bermuda grass seed along the right-of-way of my house. It has since spread over a majority of my yard. I love it. It's drought tolerant and doesn't grow that high. Most importantly, it grows everywhere. No more bare spots.

^^CR, at least we'll save on the heating bill.

Can we keep this thread open through next winter?

Not giving up yet, but the writing is on the wall (or has been since January). Really amazing how many days I didn't have to run the heat. Usually in January and February it constantly stays on; this year half the days it was off. Maybe we can pull a cool spring and not turn on AC until late May.

I also feel lucky getting what I got. Areas just miles to my south got very little. I have a feeling this spring may end up colder than normal. Seems in years past, after a warm winter spring tends to balance it back.

Yep that would be the safe bet. (so)Bring on a 1996 repeat!

By the way, if it's going to sleet I say let it stay sleet. If we can get some higher QPF totals that could equate to a decent event. One of my favorite storms was the 1996 sleet fest and that dropped 6" of sleet in Wake forest.

I know I shouldn't complain, but I'm on pins and needles for MBY. The short range models have me right on the boarder of the transition. 5 to 10 mile shifts mean very different totals. But if this ends up a sleet fest I'll still enjoy it.

RDU folks, till a good place to be for this storm. We very well could get mixing but I think that would not last long. Still looks to be a nice daytime snow on Saturday.

So there are some on this board that are now pulling for the euro and not the GFS. A few others like both. Still funny how things can switch.